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Result: Aarau 1-3 Etoile-Carouge
DirectWinPredict Swiss Challenge League Aarau vs Etoile-Carouge
A

Aarau

Home Side
W W W W W
7W 2D 1L
VS
1-3
Swiss Challenge League
E
Etoile-Carouge
Away Side
D W W L W
4W 4D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Aarau to win — Tuesday, 7th April 2026
Best Odds 1.48
Confidence 61%
Implied Prob 67.6%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Aarau to win
1.48
Under 2.5 Goals70% BTTS — No70%
Implied Prob
67.6%
Based on 1.48 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-6.6%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
7
Aarau
1
Draws
2
Etoile-Carouge
10
Meetings
50%
BTTS Rate
70%
Over 2.5
3.2
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Aarau won 7 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Aarau
Metric
Etoile-Carouge
2.4
Goals For / Game
0
1.5
Goals Against / Game
0
40%
Clean Sheet %
0%
7-2-1
W — D — L
4-4-2
Win Rate Comparison
70%
40%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
E0
E1
E2
E3
E4
E5
A0
0-0 14.2%
0-1 10.7%
0-2 4.0%
0-3 1.0%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
A1
1-0 17.1%
1-1 12.8%
1-2 4.8%
1-3 1.2%
1-4 0.2%
1-5 0.0%
A2
2-0 10.2%
2-1 7.7%
2-2 2.9%
2-3 0.7%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
A3
3-0 4.1%
3-1 3.1%
3-2 1.2%
3-3 0.3%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
A4
4-0 1.2%
4-1 0.9%
4-2 0.4%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 0.3%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (17.1%) 2-0 (10.2%) 2-1 (7.7%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · A=Home goals ↓   E=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Aarau Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Etoile-Carouge Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Aarau
Overall
7.6
Scoring
8.0
Defence
5.0
Etoile-Carouge
Overall
5.2
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Home Win & BTTS No 35%
Draw & BTTS Yes 6%
Draw & BTTS No 15%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 9%
Away Win & BTTS No 20%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 15%
Home Win & Under 2.5 35%
Draw & Over 2.5 6%
Draw & Under 2.5 15%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 20%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
06.03.26
Challenge League: Étoile Carouge0
Aarau3
12.12.25
Challenge League: Aarau2
Etoile-Carouge1
26.09.25
Challenge League: Etoile-Carouge1
Aarau3
16.05.25
Challenge League: Etoile-Carouge1
Aarau3
28.03.25
Challenge League: Aarau2
Etoile-Carouge2
05.12.24
Swiss Cup: Aarau0
Etoile-Carouge1
01.11.24
Challenge League: Etoile-Carouge2
Aarau1
24.08.24
Challenge League: Aarau1
Etoile-Carouge0
23.05.12
Challenge League: Aarau7
Etoile-Carouge0
24.09.11
Challenge League: Etoile-Carouge0
Aarau2
Recent Form
Aarau
04.04.26
Challenge League: Rapperswil-Jona4
FC Aarau5
W
21.03.26
Challenge League: FC Aarau1
Neuchâtel Xamax0
W
13.03.26
Challenge League: FC Aarau2
FC Vaduz0
W
06.03.26
Challenge League: Étoile Carouge0
FC Aarau3
W
27.02.26
Challenge League: FC Aarau5
Rapperswil-Jona3
W
20.02.26
Challenge League: Stade Nyonnais1
FC Aarau1
D
13.02.26
Challenge League: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy4
FC Aarau2
L
07.02.26
Challenge League: FC Aarau2
FC Wil2
D
30.01.26
Challenge League: Yverdon Sport1
FC Aarau2
W
24.01.26
Challenge League: FC Aarau1
Bellinzona0
W
Etoile-Carouge
03.04.26
Challenge League: Étoile Carouge0
Stade Nyonnais0
D
22.03.26
Challenge League: FC Wil1
Étoile Carouge3
W
13.03.26
Challenge League: Bellinzona0
Étoile Carouge3
W
06.03.26
Challenge League: Étoile Carouge0
FC Aarau3
L
28.02.26
Challenge League: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy0
Étoile Carouge1
W
20.02.26
Challenge League: Étoile Carouge2
Yverdon Sport2
D
13.02.26
Challenge League: Étoile Carouge1
Neuchâtel Xamax3
L
06.02.26
Challenge League: FC Vaduz3
Étoile Carouge3
D
30.01.26
Challenge League: Étoile Carouge2
Rapperswil-Jona1
W
23.01.26
Challenge League: Stade Nyonnais2
Étoile Carouge2
D
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Tuesday, 7th April 2026, Aarau host Etoile-Carouge in Swiss Challenge League. We recommend Aarau to win as the standout selection.

Aarau arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Etoile-Carouge are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 4D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Aarau, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Etoile-Carouge's 2, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: aarau to win at odds of 1.48 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Swiss Challenge League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.48 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Aarau vs Etoile-Carouge?
Our selection is 1 — Aarau to win, priced at approximately 1.48. Tip confidence rating: 61%.
What is Aarau's current form?
Aarau have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Etoile-Carouge been performing recently?
Etoile-Carouge have recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Aarau lead with 7 wins versus Etoile-Carouge's 2, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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