PENDING
Result: Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
DirectWinPredict Poland Ekstraklasa Cracovia vs Pogon Szczecin
C

Cracovia

Home Side
D W W W L
3W 6D 1L
VS
6:00 pm
Poland Ekstraklasa
P
Pogon Szczecin
Away Side
L L L W L
4W 1D 5L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals — Monday, 3rd August 2026
Best Odds 1.30
Confidence 81%
Implied Prob 76.9%
Head to Head Record
1
Cracovia
4
Draws
5
Pogon Szczecin
10
Meetings
100%
BTTS Rate
60%
Over 2.5
3.6
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 1.5 in 100% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Cracovia
Metric
Pogon Szczecin
1.2
Goals For / Game
1.2
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.3
50%
Clean Sheet %
30%
3-6-1
W — D — L
4-1-5
Win Rate Comparison
30%
40%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
C0
0-0 10.5%
0-1 10.5%
0-2 5.3%
0-3 1.8%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
C1
1-0 13.2%
1-1 13.2%
1-2 6.6%
1-3 2.2%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
C2
2-0 8.2%
2-1 8.2%
2-2 4.1%
2-3 1.4%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
C3
3-0 3.4%
3-1 3.4%
3-2 1.7%
3-3 0.6%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
C4
4-0 1.1%
4-1 1.1%
4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
C5
5-0 0.3%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (13.2%) 1-1 (13.2%) 0-0 (10.5%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · C=Home goals ↓   P=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Cracovia
Overall
4.8
Scoring
4.0
Defence
7.3
Pogon Szczecin
Overall
4.3
Scoring
4.0
Defence
5.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Home Win & BTTS No 17%
Draw & BTTS Yes 13%
Draw & BTTS No 20%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Away Win & BTTS No 23%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 12%
Home Win & Under 2.5 17%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 20%
Away Win & Over 2.5 15%
Away Win & Under 2.5 23%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
25.04.26EKS
Cracovia1
Pogon Szczecin1
25.10.25EKS
Pogon Szczecin2
Cracovia1
14.03.25EKS
Pogon Szczecin5
Cracovia2
14.09.24EKS
Cracovia2
Pogon Szczecin1
30.03.24EKS
Pogon Szczecin3
Cracovia1
23.09.23EKS
Cracovia1
Pogon Szczecin5
08.04.23EKS
Pogon Szczecin3
Cracovia2
17.09.22EKS
Cracovia1
Pogon Szczecin1
12.03.22EKS
Cracovia1
Pogon Szczecin1
18.09.21EKS
Pogon Szczecin1
Cracovia1
Recent Form
Cracovia
25.07.26EKS
Lech Poznan0
Cracovia0
D
19.07.26CF
Cracovia1
Sevilla0
W
09.07.26CF
Cracovia2
FK Pardubice0
W
06.07.26CF
Cracovia3
Basaksehir1
W
03.07.26CF
Cracovia1
Pafos2
L
23.05.26EKS
Cracovia1
Korona Kielce1
D
16.05.26EKS
Motor Lublin3
Cracovia3
D
11.05.26EKS
Cracovia0
Radomiak Radom0
D
03.05.26EKS
Zaglebie0
Cracovia0
D
25.04.26EKS
Cracovia1
Pogon Szczecin1
D
Pogon Szczecin
24.07.26EKS
Pogon Szczecin0
Legia1
L
15.07.26CF
Sturm Graz1
Pogon Szczecin0
L
11.07.26CF
Fenerbahce4
Pogon Szczecin0
L
08.07.26CF
Pogon Szczecin2
Chrobry Glogow1
W
04.07.26CF
Zaglebie2
Pogon Szczecin0
L
27.06.26CF
BFC Dynamo0
Pogon Szczecin3
W
23.05.26EKS
Pogon Szczecin1
GKS Katowice1
D
15.05.26EKS
Zaglebie0
Pogon Szczecin1
W
09.05.26EKS
Jagiellonia3
Pogon Szczecin2
L
03.05.26EKS
Pogon Szczecin3
Wisla Plock0
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Monday, 3rd August 2026, Cracovia host Pogon Szczecin at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego (Kraków) in Poland Ekstraklasa. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.

Cracovia arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 6 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Pogon Szczecin are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 1D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Cracovia, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Pogon Szczecin's 5, with 4 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.30 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Poland Ekstraklasa preview lives.

The home team strides in on 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego (Kraków), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 1 win, 4 losses from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is Over 1.5, priced at @1.30, which the numbers settle at around 80%. The whistle goes at 6:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Cracovia vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 81%.
What is Cracovia's current form?
Cracovia have won 3, drawn 6 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Pogon Szczecin been performing recently?
Pogon Szczecin have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Cracovia lead with 1 wins versus Pogon Szczecin's 5, with 4 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
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