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Result: AZ Alkmaar 3-3 NAC Breda

AZ Alkmaar

Home Side

D D D W D

4W 4D 2L

3-3

Eredivisie

NAC Breda

Away Side

W L L D D

2W 3D 5L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing AZ Alkmaar to win — Sunday, 17th May 2026

Best Odds 1.34

Confidence 55%

Implied Prob 74.6%

50%

30%

20%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — AZ Alkmaar to win

1.34

Over 1.5 Goals85% BTTS — No65%

Implied Prob

74.6%

Based on 1.34 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-19.6%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

AZ Alkmaar

Draws

NAC Breda

Meetings

60%

BTTS Rate

70%

Over 2.5

3.1

Avg Goals

Supports Pick AZ Alkmaar won 8 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

AZ Alkmaar

Metric

NAC Breda

1.9

Goals For / Game

0.8

1.2

Goals Against / Game

1.9

40%

Clean Sheet %

30%

4-4-2

W — D — L

2-3-5

Win Rate Comparison

40%

20%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 5.5%

0-1 5.5%

0-2 2.8%

0-3 0.9%

0-4 0.2%

0-5 0.1%

1-0 10.5%

1-1 10.5%

1-2 5.2%

1-3 1.7%

1-4 0.4%

1-5 0.1%

2-0 9.9%

2-1 9.9%

2-2 5.0%

2-3 1.7%

2-4 0.4%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 6.3%

3-1 6.3%

3-2 3.2%

3-3 1.1%

3-4 0.3%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 3.0%

4-1 3.0%

4-2 1.5%

4-3 0.5%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 1.1%

5-1 1.1%

5-2 0.6%

5-3 0.2%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (10.5%) 2-0 (9.9%) 2-1 (9.9%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · A=Home goals ↓ N=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

AZ Alkmaar Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

NAC Breda Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

AZ Alkmaar

Overall

5.2 ▲

Scoring

6.3 ▲

Defence

6.0 ▲

NAC Breda

Overall

2.9 —

Scoring

2.7 —

Defence

3.7 —

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 15%

Home Win & BTTS No 27%

Draw & BTTS Yes 13%

Draw & BTTS No 24%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 7%

Away Win & BTTS No 14%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 23%

Home Win & Under 2.5 19%

Draw & Over 2.5 20%

Draw & Under 2.5 17%

Away Win & Over 2.5 12%

Away Win & Under 2.5 9%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

31.08.25ERE

NAC Breda0

AZ Alkmaar1

24.04.25ERE

AZ Alkmaar1

NAC Breda1

15.12.24ERE

NAC Breda1

AZ Alkmaar2

12.02.20KNV

AZ Alkmaar1

NAC Breda3

08.02.19ERE

NAC Breda0

AZ Alkmaar3

12.08.18ERE

AZ Alkmaar5

NAC Breda0

17.02.18ERE

NAC Breda1

AZ Alkmaar3

10.09.17ERE

AZ Alkmaar2

NAC Breda1

10.05.15ERE

AZ Alkmaar3

NAC Breda2

08.11.14ERE

NAC Breda0

AZ Alkmaar1

Recent Form

AZ Alkmaar

10.05.26ERE

Feyenoord1

AZ Alkmaar1

03.05.26ERE

AZ Alkmaar2

Twente2

23.04.26ERE

G.A. Eagles0

AZ Alkmaar0

19.04.26KNV

AZ Alkmaar5

Nijmegen1

16.04.26UECL

AZ Alkmaar2

Shakhtar Donetsk2

12.04.26ERE

AZ Alkmaar3

Heerenveen0

09.04.26UECL

Shakhtar Donetsk3

AZ Alkmaar0

04.04.26ERE

AZ Alkmaar2

Sittard0

22.03.26ERE

Groningen3

AZ Alkmaar0

19.03.26UECL

Sparta Prague0

AZ Alkmaar4

NAC Breda

11.05.26ERE

NAC Breda2

Heerenveen0

02.05.26ERE

Utrecht2

NAC Breda0

25.04.26ERE

NAC Breda0

Ajax2

12.04.26ERE

Sittard1

NAC Breda1

05.04.26ERE

NAC Breda0

Sparta Rotterdam0

21.03.26ERE

Zwolle2

NAC Breda1

15.03.26ERE

G.A. Eagles6

NAC Breda0

08.03.26ERE

NAC Breda3

Feyenoord3

27.02.26ERE

Telstar3

NAC Breda0

21.02.26ERE

NAC Breda1

FC Volendam0

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Eredivisie game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.34 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?

Our selection is 1 — AZ Alkmaar to win, priced at approximately 1.34. Tip confidence rating: 55%.

What is AZ Alkmaar's current form?

AZ Alkmaar have won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.

How has NAC Breda been performing recently?

NAC Breda have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

AZ Alkmaar lead with 8 wins versus NAC Breda's 1, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.

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