WON
Result: Al Shabab 2-4 Al Nassr
DirectWinPredict Saudi Professional League Al Shabab vs Al Nassr
A

Al Shabab

Home Side
L D L W D
3W 4D 3L
VS
2-4
Saudi Professional League
A
Al Nassr
Away Side
L W W W W
9W 0D 1L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals — Thursday, 7th May 2026
Best Odds 1.32
Confidence 78%
Implied Prob 75.8%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.32
Over 1.5 Goals90% Al Nassr Clean Sheet60%
Implied Prob
75.8%
Based on 1.32 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+2.2%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
9.3%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
0
Al Shabab
3
Draws
7
Al Nassr
10
Meetings
70%
BTTS Rate
80%
Over 2.5
3.9
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 2.5 in 80% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Al Shabab
Metric
Al Nassr
2.6
Goals For / Game
2.9
2
Goals Against / Game
0.7
10%
Clean Sheet %
60%
3-4-3
W — D — L
9-0-1
Win Rate Comparison
30%
90%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A0
0-0 1.7%
0-1 4.1%
0-2 5.0%
0-3 4.1%
0-4 2.5%
0-5 1.2%
A1
1-0 2.7%
1-1 6.7%
1-2 8.2%
1-3 6.7%
1-4 4.1%
1-5 2.0%
A2
2-0 2.3%
2-1 5.5%
2-2 6.8%
2-3 5.5%
2-4 3.4%
2-5 1.7%
A3
3-0 1.2%
3-1 3.0%
3-2 3.7%
3-3 3.0%
3-4 1.9%
3-5 0.9%
A4
4-0 0.5%
4-1 1.3%
4-2 1.5%
4-3 1.3%
4-4 0.8%
4-5 0.4%
A5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.4%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.3%
5-5 0.1%
Top Predicted Scores 1-2 (8.2%) 2-2 (6.8%) 1-1 (6.7%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · A=Home goals ↓   A=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Al Shabab
Overall
4.2
Scoring
8.7
Defence
3.3
Al Nassr
Overall
9.0
Scoring
9.7
Defence
7.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Home Win & BTTS No 8%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 39%
Away Win & BTTS No 26%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 13%
Home Win & Under 2.5 8%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 39%
Away Win & Under 2.5 26%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
17.01.26SPL
Al Nassr3
Al Shabab2
07.03.25SPL
Al Nassr2
Al Shabab2
18.10.24SPL
Al Shabab1
Al Nassr2
25.02.24SPL
Al Shabab2
Al Nassr3
11.12.23KC
Al Shabab2
Al Nassr5
29.08.23SPL
Al Nassr4
Al Shabab0
28.07.23ACCC
Al Nassr0
Al Shabab0
23.05.23SPL
Al Nassr3
Al Shabab2
14.01.23SPL
Al Shabab0
Al Nassr0
06.05.22SPL
Al Nassr4
Al Shabab2
Recent Form
Al Shabab
03.05.26SPL
Al Shabab1
Al Taawon5
L
28.04.26SPL
Al Shabab1
Al Fateh1
D
23.04.26GCC
Al Shabab0
Al Rayyan3
L
19.04.26GCC
Al Shabab12
Zakho1
W
14.04.26SPL
Al Qadsiah2
Al Shabab2
D
05.04.26SPL
Al Riyadh1
Al Shabab1
D
14.03.26SPL
Al Shabab2
Al Okhdood0
W
07.03.26SPL
Al Ettifaq1
Al Shabab1
D
27.02.26SPL
Al Shabab3
Al Hilal5
L
23.02.26SPL
Al Shabab3
Al Riyadh1
W
Al Nassr
03.05.26SPL
Al Qadsiah3
Al Nassr1
L
29.04.26SPL
Al Nassr2
Al Ahli SC0
W
22.04.26CL2
Al Nassr5
Al Ahli Doha1
W
19.04.26CL2
Al Wasl0
Al Nassr4
W
15.04.26SPL
Al Nassr1
Al Ettifaq0
W
11.04.26SPL
Al Okhdood0
Al Nassr2
W
03.04.26SPL
Al Nassr5
Al Najma2
W
14.03.26SPL
Al Khaleej0
Al Nassr5
W
07.03.26SPL
Al Nassr1
Neom SC0
W
28.02.26SPL
Al Fayha1
Al Nassr3
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Thursday, 7th May 2026, Al Shabab host Al Nassr in Saudi Professional League. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Al Shabab arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Al Nassr are travelling well, with a record of 9W 0D 1L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Al Shabab, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Al Nassr's 7, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.32 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Saudi Professional League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is Over 2.5, and it looks even better when you see the @1.32 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Shabab vs Al Nassr?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.32. Tip confidence rating: 78%.
What is Al Shabab's current form?
Al Shabab have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Al Nassr been performing recently?
Al Nassr have recorded 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Shabab lead with 0 wins versus Al Nassr's 7, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
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