PENDING
Result: Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
DirectWinPredict China Super League Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Port
Y

Yunnan Yukun

Home Side
L W L W D
4W 2D 4L
VS
1:00 pm
China Super League
S
Shanghai Port
Away Side
L W W L D
3W 4D 3L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals — Friday, 17th July 2026
Best Odds 1.37
Confidence 80%
Implied Prob 73%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.37
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals85% BTTS — Yes85%
Implied Prob
73%
Based on 1.37 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+7%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
25.9%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
0
Yunnan Yukun
0
Draws
3
Shanghai Port
3
Meetings
100%
BTTS Rate
100%
Over 2.5
4.7
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 2.5 in 100% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Yunnan Yukun
Metric
Shanghai Port
1.8
Goals For / Game
1.5
1.8
Goals Against / Game
1.6
20%
Clean Sheet %
10%
4-2-4
W — D — L
3-4-3
Win Rate Comparison
40%
30%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
Y0
0-0 3.5%
0-1 5.8%
0-2 4.8%
0-3 2.6%
0-4 1.1%
0-5 0.4%
Y1
1-0 6.0%
1-1 9.8%
1-2 8.1%
1-3 4.5%
1-4 1.8%
1-5 0.6%
Y2
2-0 5.1%
2-1 8.4%
2-2 6.9%
2-3 3.8%
2-4 1.6%
2-5 0.5%
Y3
3-0 2.9%
3-1 4.7%
3-2 3.9%
3-3 2.2%
3-4 0.9%
3-5 0.3%
Y4
4-0 1.2%
4-1 2.0%
4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.9%
4-4 0.4%
4-5 0.1%
Y5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-1 (9.8%) 2-1 (8.4%) 1-2 (8.1%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · Y=Home goals ↓   S=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Yunnan Yukun
Overall
4.6
Scoring
6.0
Defence
4.0
Shanghai Port
Overall
4.2
Scoring
5.0
Defence
4.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 34%
Home Win & BTTS No 6%
Draw & BTTS Yes 26%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Away Win & BTTS No 5%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 28%
Home Win & Under 2.5 12%
Draw & Over 2.5 21%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 21%
Away Win & Under 2.5 9%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
04.04.26SL
Shanghai Port2
Yunnan Yukun1
12.09.25SL
Shanghai Port4
Yunnan Yukun2
25.04.25SL
Yunnan Yukun2
Shanghai Port3
Recent Form
Yunnan Yukun
10.07.26SL
Shandong Taishan4
Yunnan Yukun3
L
03.07.26SL
Yunnan Yukun2
Henan Songshan Longmen1
W
26.06.26SL
Qingdao Hainiu4
Yunnan Yukun2
L
21.06.26FAC
Suzhou Dongwu2
Yunnan Yukun4
W
31.05.26SL
Wuhan Three Towns1
Yunnan Yukun1
D
24.05.26SL
Yunnan Yukun2
Qingdao West Coast3
L
20.05.26SL
Chongqing Tonglianglong0
Yunnan Yukun0
D
16.05.26SL
Yunnan Yukun1
Shanghai Shenhua0
W
10.05.26SL
Liaoning Tieren1
Yunnan Yukun2
W
06.05.26SL
Yunnan Yukun1
Zhejiang Professional2
L
Shanghai Port
04.07.26SL
Qingdao West Coast2
Shanghai Port1
L
27.06.26SL
Henan Songshan Longmen1
Shanghai Port2
W
19.06.26FAC
Shanghai Second1
Shanghai Port2
W
29.05.26SL
Liaoning Tieren3
Shanghai Port2
L
23.05.26SL
Shanghai Port1
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger1
D
19.05.26SL
Chengdu Rongcheng0
Shanghai Port1
W
15.05.26SL
Shanghai Port2
Zhejiang Professional2
D
10.05.26SL
Beijing Guoan2
Shanghai Port2
D
06.05.26SL
Shanghai Port1
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1
D
02.05.26SL
Qingdao Hainiu3
Shanghai Port1
L
Yunnan Yukun (Home)
03.07.26SL
Yunnan Yukun2
Henan Songshan Longmen1
W
24.05.26SL
Yunnan Yukun2
Qingdao West Coast3
L
16.05.26SL
Yunnan Yukun1
Shanghai Shenhua0
W
06.05.26SL
Yunnan Yukun1
Zhejiang Professional2
L
02.05.26SL
Yunnan Yukun3
Beijing Guoan3
D
17.04.26SL
Yunnan Yukun0
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger3
L
21.03.26SL
Yunnan Yukun4
Shandong Taishan0
W
07.03.26SL
Yunnan Yukun3
Qingdao Hainiu1
W
02.11.25SL
Yunnan Yukun1
Qingdao West Coast0
W
18.10.25SL
Yunnan Yukun2
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger0
W
Shanghai Port (Away)
04.07.26SL
Qingdao West Coast2
Shanghai Port1
L
27.06.26SL
Henan Songshan Longmen1
Shanghai Port2
W
19.06.26FAC
Shanghai Second1
Shanghai Port2
W
29.05.26SL
Liaoning Tieren3
Shanghai Port2
L
19.05.26SL
Chengdu Rongcheng0
Shanghai Port1
W
10.05.26SL
Beijing Guoan2
Shanghai Port2
D
02.05.26SL
Qingdao Hainiu3
Shanghai Port1
L
17.04.26SL
Shandong Taishan1
Shanghai Port1
D
11.04.26SL
Shanghai Shenhua1
Shanghai Port0
L
20.03.26SL
Dalian Yingbo1
Shanghai Port0
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Friday, 17th July 2026, Yunnan Yukun host Shanghai Port at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium (Yuxi) in China Super League. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Yunnan Yukun arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Shanghai Port are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 4D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Yunnan Yukun, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Shanghai Port's 3, with 0 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.37 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this China Super League preview lives.

The home team strides in on 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium (Yuxi), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is Over 2.5, priced at @1.37, which the numbers settle at around 80%. The whistle goes at 1:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Port?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.37. Tip confidence rating: 80%.
What is Yunnan Yukun's current form?
Yunnan Yukun have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Shanghai Port been performing recently?
Shanghai Port have recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Yunnan Yukun lead with 0 wins versus Shanghai Port's 3, with 0 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
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