PENDING
Result: 1 — Valmiera to win
DirectWinPredict Latvia Nakotnes Liga Valmiera vs RFS 2
V

Valmiera

Home Side
W W L W W
7W 1D 2L
VS
12:00 pm
Latvia Nakotnes Liga
R
RFS 2
Away Side
W L D L W
3W 2D 5L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Valmiera to win — Saturday, 1st August 2026
Best Odds 1.20
Confidence 66%
Implied Prob 83.3%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Valmiera to win
1.20
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals90%
Implied Prob
83.3%
Based on 1.20 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-17.3%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
1
Valmiera
0
Draws
0
RFS 2
1
Meetings
100%
BTTS Rate
100%
Over 2.5
6
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Valmiera won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Valmiera
Metric
RFS 2
2.5
Goals For / Game
1.6
1
Goals Against / Game
1.8
50%
Clean Sheet %
20%
7-1-2
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate Comparison
70%
30%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
R0
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
V0
0-0 3.2%
0-1 4.1%
0-2 2.7%
0-3 1.2%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
V1
1-0 6.8%
1-1 8.9%
1-2 5.8%
1-3 2.5%
1-4 0.8%
1-5 0.2%
V2
2-0 7.3%
2-1 9.5%
2-2 6.2%
2-3 2.7%
2-4 0.9%
2-5 0.2%
V3
3-0 5.3%
3-1 6.8%
3-2 4.4%
3-3 1.9%
3-4 0.6%
3-5 0.2%
V4
4-0 2.8%
4-1 3.7%
4-2 2.4%
4-3 1.0%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
V5
5-0 1.2%
5-1 1.6%
5-2 1.0%
5-3 0.5%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.5%) 2-0 (7.3%) 3-1 (6.8%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · V=Home goals ↓   R=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Valmiera Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
RFS 2 Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Valmiera
Overall
7.3
Scoring
8.3
Defence
6.7
RFS 2
Overall
3.6
Scoring
5.3
Defence
4.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 34%
Home Win & BTTS No 27%
Draw & BTTS Yes 7%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Away Win & BTTS No 12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 43%
Home Win & Under 2.5 18%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 4%
Away Win & Over 2.5 18%
Away Win & Under 2.5 8%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
29.03.26NL
RFS 21
Valmiera5
Recent Form
Valmiera
27.07.26NL
Valmiera3
Riga FC 20
W
18.07.26NL
Skanste0
Valmiera3
W
12.07.26LC
Valmiera2
Ogre United - L (AET)4
05.07.26NL
Valmiera4
Leevon PPK1
W
28.06.26NL
JFK Ventspils0
Valmiera2
W
22.06.26LC
FK Smiltene1
Valmiera4
W
14.06.26NL
Tukums 2000 21
Valmiera4
W
30.05.26LC
Valmiera2
Skanste0
W
26.05.26NL
Super Nova 20
Valmiera0
D
16.05.26NL
Riga Mariners3
Valmiera1
L
RFS 2
25.07.26NL
FK Smiltene3
RFS 25
W
20.07.26NL
Tukums 2000 22
RFS 20
L
05.07.26NL
RFS 21
Super Nova 21
D
27.06.26NL
RFS 21
Riga FC 23
L
14.06.26NL
RFS 23
Rezekne0
W
23.05.26NL
Marupe1
RFS 24
W
16.05.26NL
RFS 21
Leevon PPK2
L
10.05.26NL
Skanste4
RFS 20
L
02.05.26NL
JFK Ventspils0
RFS 20
D
25.04.26NL
RFS 21
Riga Mariners2
L
Valmiera (Home)
27.07.26NL
Valmiera3
Riga FC 20
W
12.07.26LC
Valmiera2
Ogre United - L (AET)4
05.07.26NL
Valmiera4
Leevon PPK1
W
30.05.26LC
Valmiera2
Skanste0
W
09.05.26NL
Valmiera1
Alberts JDFS1
D
26.04.26NL
Valmiera3
Rezekne1
W
12.04.26NL
Valmiera4
FK Smiltene0
W
31.05.25LC
Valmiera4
Ogre United3
W
16.05.25LC
Valmiera6
FK Cesis0
W
02.05.25LC
Valmiera8
FK Limbazi0
W
RFS 2 (Away)
25.07.26NL
FK Smiltene3
RFS 25
W
20.07.26NL
Tukums 2000 22
RFS 20
L
23.05.26NL
Marupe1
RFS 24
W
10.05.26NL
Skanste4
RFS 20
L
02.05.26NL
JFK Ventspils0
RFS 20
D
19.04.26NL
Alberts JDFS2
RFS 20
L
08.11.25NL
FK Smiltene1
RFS 21
D
01.11.25NL
Riga Mariners4
RFS 23
L
20.10.25NL
Tukums 2000 22
RFS 22
D
04.10.25NL
Ogre United0
RFS 20
D
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Saturday, 1st August 2026, Valmiera host RFS 2 at N/A in Latvia Nakotnes Liga. We recommend Valmiera to win as the standout selection.

Valmiera arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

RFS 2 are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 2D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Valmiera, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to RFS 2's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: valmiera to win at odds of 1.20 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Latvia Nakotnes Liga preview lives.

The home team strides in on 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at N/A, and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1, priced at @1.20, which the numbers settle at around 50,30,20%. The whistle goes at 12:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Valmiera vs RFS 2?
Our selection is 1 — Valmiera to win, priced at approximately 1.20. Tip confidence rating: 66%.
What is Valmiera's current form?
Valmiera have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has RFS 2 been performing recently?
RFS 2 have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Valmiera lead with 1 wins versus RFS 2's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
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