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Result: Tupa 1-2 Santa Fe SP
DirectWinPredict Brazil Paulista B Tupa vs Santa Fe SP
T

Tupa

Home Side
W L D L W
4W 2D 4L
VS
1-2
7:00 pm
Brazil Paulista B
S
Santa Fe SP
Away Side
L L L L L
1W 0D 8L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Tupa to win — Saturday, 20th June 2026
Best Odds 1.28
Confidence 60%
Implied Prob 78.1%
H
60%
D
20%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Tupa to win
1.28
Over 1.5 Goals84%
Implied Prob
78.1%
Based on 1.28 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-18.1%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
1
Tupa
0
Draws
0
Santa Fe SP
1
Meetings
100%
BTTS Rate
100%
Over 2.5
4
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Tupa won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Tupa
Metric
Santa Fe SP
1.4
Goals For / Game
0.9
1.5
Goals Against / Game
2.1
30%
Clean Sheet %
0%
4-2-4
W — D — L
1-0-8
Win Rate Comparison
40%
11%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
T0
0-0 5.2%
0-1 6.3%
0-2 3.8%
0-3 1.5%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.1%
T1
1-0 9.2%
1-1 11.0%
1-2 6.6%
1-3 2.6%
1-4 0.8%
1-5 0.2%
T2
2-0 8.0%
2-1 9.6%
2-2 5.8%
2-3 2.3%
2-4 0.7%
2-5 0.2%
T3
3-0 4.7%
3-1 5.6%
3-2 3.4%
3-3 1.4%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
T4
4-0 2.1%
4-1 2.5%
4-2 1.5%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
T5
5-0 0.7%
5-1 0.9%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.6%) 1-0 (9.2%) 2-0 (8.0%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · T=Home goals ↓   S=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Tupa Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Santa Fe SP Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Tupa
Overall
4.6
Scoring
4.7
Defence
5.0
Santa Fe SP
Overall
1.1
Scoring
3.0
Defence
3.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 38%
Home Win & BTTS No 27%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 34%
Home Win & Under 2.5 31%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 8%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
15.05.26PAU
Santa Fe SP1
Tupa3
Recent Form
Tupa
14.06.26PAU
Riopretano0
Tupa1
W
06.06.26PAU
America SP3
Tupa1
L
30.05.26PAU
Tupa1
Assisense1
D
24.05.26PAU
Jose Bonifacio EC2
Tupa1
L
15.05.26PAU
Santa Fe SP1
Tupa3
W
09.05.26PAU
Tupa2
Riopretano0
W
02.05.26PAU
Tupa2
America SP0
W
25.04.26PAU
Assisense3
Tupa2
L
19.04.26PAU
Tupa0
Jose Bonifacio EC4
L
21.06.25PAU
Tupa1
Santacruzense1
D
Santa Fe SP
12.06.26PAU
Santa Fe SP1
America SP3
L
06.06.26PAU
Assisense4
Santa Fe SP2
L
29.05.26PAU
Santa Fe SP0
Jose Bonifacio EC2
L
24.05.26PAU
Riopretano2
Santa Fe SP1
L
15.05.26PAU
Santa Fe SP1
Tupa3
L
09.05.26PAU
America SP1
Santa Fe SP0
L
01.05.26PAU
Santa Fe SP0
Assisense1
L
26.04.26PAU
Jose Bonifacio EC2
Santa Fe SP0
L
17.04.26PAU
Santa Fe SP3
Riopretano1
W
Tupa (Home)
30.05.26PAU
Tupa1
Assisense1
D
09.05.26PAU
Tupa2
Riopretano0
W
02.05.26PAU
Tupa2
America SP0
W
19.04.26PAU
Tupa0
Jose Bonifacio EC4
L
21.06.25PAU
Tupa1
Santacruzense1
D
08.06.25PAU
Tupa1
Assisense2
L
09.05.25PAU
Tupa1
Olimpia FC0
W
25.04.25PAU
Tupa0
Tanabi4
L
17.08.24PAU
Tupa1
Colorado Caieiras0
W
03.08.24PAU
Tupa2
Tanabi0
W
Santa Fe SP (Away)
06.06.26PAU
Assisense4
Santa Fe SP2
L
24.05.26PAU
Riopretano2
Santa Fe SP1
L
09.05.26PAU
America SP1
Santa Fe SP0
L
26.04.26PAU
Jose Bonifacio EC2
Santa Fe SP0
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Saturday, 20th June 2026, Tupa host Santa Fe SP at TBA in Brazil Paulista B. We recommend Tupa to win as the standout selection.

Tupa arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Santa Fe SP are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 0D 8L across 9 matches.

Historical meetings favour Tupa, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Santa Fe SP's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: tupa to win at odds of 1.28 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If there’s one habit that separates consistently profitable sports bettors from everyone else, it’s this: they update their beliefs based on recent evidence, not past reputation. A team that was fantastic last autumn might be genuinely struggling now — but the market sometimes takes time to fully catch up. Finding those gaps is where the real edge lives, and this Brazil Paulista B encounter gives us a clear example of how to look for them.

Home side first. They’re carrying a season form of W-L-D-L-W, and that’s been shaping what the bookmakers charge to back them. But we want the version of this team that’s going to walk out onto TBA on match day, not the version that existed two months ago. Their last five home performances give us that. We’re looking at whether the attacks are clicking, whether they’re defensively organised or showing vulnerability at the back, and what the pattern of results actually reflects when you look at the games themselves rather than just the points column.

The visitors have an away record of L-L-L-L-L across the season so far. That’ll have influenced pricing, but the most useful thing we can look at is how they’ve been performing on the road recently. Last five away. Confidence, pressing intensity, how they respond to going behind — all of that shows up in the most recent games in a way that the full seasonal tally simply can’t capture.

Between these two clubs, the head-to-head history says:

Head-to-Head Record:

15.05.26 (PAU) Santa Fe SP 1 – 3 Tupa

Those previous encounters help us understand whether there’s a structural reason one team tends to perform better or worse in this specific matchup — something about tactical styles clashing in a particular way.

With the match scheduled for 7:00 pm, we’re putting our weight behind 1 at @@1.28. The probability sits at 60,20,20%, and that’s a number we’re comfortable with based on everything the data is showing us. Don’t leave without checking our other tips for today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Tupa vs Santa Fe SP?
Our selection is 1 — Tupa to win, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 60%.
What is Tupa's current form?
Tupa have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Santa Fe SP been performing recently?
Santa Fe SP have recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 8 defeats from 9 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Tupa lead with 1 wins versus Santa Fe SP's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
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