WON

Result: Tartu Welco 4-2 Nomme Kalju U21

Tartu Welco

Home Side

W D L W D

6W 2D 2L

4-2

Estonia Esiliiga

Nomme Kalju U21

Away Side

D W W L W

4W 2D 4L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Tartu Welco to win — Thursday, 28th May 2026

Best Odds 1.22

Confidence 63%

Implied Prob 82%

50%

30%

20%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — Tartu Welco to win

1.22

Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals85%

Implied Prob

82%

Based on 1.22 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-19%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Tartu Welco

Draws

Nomme Kalju U21

Meetings

60%

BTTS Rate

90%

Over 2.5

Avg Goals

Supports Pick Tartu Welco won 9 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Tartu Welco

Metric

Nomme Kalju U21

2.5

Goals For / Game

1.7

1.5

Goals Against / Game

2.3

20%

Clean Sheet %

30%

6-2-2

W — D — L

4-2-4

Win Rate Comparison

60%

40%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 1.8%

0-1 2.9%

0-2 2.3%

0-3 1.3%

0-4 0.5%

0-5 0.2%

1-0 4.4%

1-1 7.0%

1-2 5.6%

1-3 3.0%

1-4 1.2%

1-5 0.4%

2-0 5.3%

2-1 8.4%

2-2 6.8%

2-3 3.6%

2-4 1.4%

2-5 0.5%

3-0 4.2%

3-1 6.8%

3-2 5.4%

3-3 2.9%

3-4 1.2%

3-5 0.4%

4-0 2.5%

4-1 4.1%

4-2 3.2%

4-3 1.7%

4-4 0.7%

4-5 0.2%

5-0 1.2%

5-1 1.9%

5-2 1.6%

5-3 0.8%

5-4 0.3%

5-5 0.1%

Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (8.4%) 3-1 (6.8%) 3-2 (5.4%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · T=Home goals ↓ N=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Tartu Welco Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Nomme Kalju U21 Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Tartu Welco

Overall

6.6 ▲

Scoring

8.3 ▲

Defence

5.0 ▲

Nomme Kalju U21

Overall

4.6 ▼

Scoring

5.7 ▼

Defence

2.3 ▼

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 30%

Home Win & BTTS No 20%

Draw & BTTS Yes 10%

Draw & BTTS No 7%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 20%

Away Win & BTTS No 13%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 33%

Home Win & Under 2.5 18%

Draw & Over 2.5 11%

Draw & Under 2.5 6%

Away Win & Over 2.5 21%

Away Win & Under 2.5 12%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

11.04.26ESI

Nomme Kalju U211

Tartu Welco5

23.10.25ESI

Tartu Welco5

Nomme Kalju U212

19.07.25ESI

Nomme Kalju U210

Tartu Welco3

19.06.25ESI

Tartu Welco0

Nomme Kalju U211

01.05.25ESI

Nomme Kalju U210

Tartu Welco4

24.09.23ESB

Nomme Kalju U213

Tartu Welco4

03.07.23ESB

Tartu Welco4

Nomme Kalju U212

29.05.23ESB

Tartu Welco5

Nomme Kalju U212

02.04.23ESB

Nomme Kalju U210

Tartu Welco4

15.10.22ESB

Nomme Kalju U211

Tartu Welco4

Recent Form

Tartu Welco

24.05.26ESI

Maardu0

Tartu Welco1

17.05.26ESI

Tartu Welco3

Flora U213

09.05.26ESI

Tallinna Kalev2

Tartu Welco0

01.05.26ESI

FC Tallinn0

Tartu Welco2

27.04.26ESI

Tartu Welco3

Elva3

23.04.26ESI

Viimsi JK2

Tartu Welco0

17.04.26ESI

Tartu Welco3

Levadia U212

11.04.26ESI

Nomme Kalju U211

Tartu Welco5

03.04.26ESI

Nomme Utd U211

Tartu Welco3

21.03.26ESI

Tartu Welco5

Maardu1

Nomme Kalju U21

16.05.26ESI

Nomme Kalju U211

Viimsi JK1

11.05.26ESI

Nomme Kalju U211

Levadia U210

02.05.26ESI

Elva2

Nomme Kalju U214

27.04.26ESI

Nomme Kalju U210

Tallinna Kalev4

24.04.26ESI

Nomme Utd U210

Nomme Kalju U213

18.04.26ESI

Nomme Kalju U213

Maardu2

11.04.26ESI

Nomme Kalju U211

Tartu Welco5

04.04.26ESI

FC Tallinn6

Nomme Kalju U213

19.03.26ESI

Flora U213

Nomme Kalju U211

14.03.26ESI

Nomme Kalju U210

Viimsi JK0

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Estonia Esiliiga game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.22 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Tartu Welco vs Nomme Kalju U21?

Our selection is 1 — Tartu Welco to win, priced at approximately 1.22. Tip confidence rating: 63%.

What is Tartu Welco's current form?

Tartu Welco have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.

How has Nomme Kalju U21 been performing recently?

Nomme Kalju U21 have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Tartu Welco lead with 9 wins versus Nomme Kalju U21's 1, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.

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