WON
Result: Palmeiras 4-1 Junior
DirectWinPredict Copa Libertadores Palmeiras vs Junior
P

Palmeiras

Home Side
W L D W D
5W 4D 1L
VS
4-1
Copa Libertadores
J
Junior
Away Side
W W D D W
5W 3D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Palmeiras to win — Thursday, 28th May 2026
Best Odds 1.27
Confidence 58%
Implied Prob 78.7%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Palmeiras to win
1.27
Under 2.5 Goals70%
Implied Prob
78.7%
Based on 1.27 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-20.7%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
4
Palmeiras
1
Draws
0
Junior
5
Meetings
40%
BTTS Rate
60%
Over 2.5
2.8
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Palmeiras
Metric
Junior
1.7
Goals For / Game
1.5
0.6
Goals Against / Game
1.2
40%
Clean Sheet %
30%
5-4-1
W — D — L
5-3-2
Win Rate Comparison
50%
50%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
J0
J1
J2
J3
J4
J5
P0
0-0 8.2%
0-1 8.6%
0-2 4.5%
0-3 1.6%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
P1
1-0 11.9%
1-1 12.5%
1-2 6.6%
1-3 2.3%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
P2
2-0 8.6%
2-1 9.1%
2-2 4.8%
2-3 1.7%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
P3
3-0 4.2%
3-1 4.4%
3-2 2.3%
3-3 0.8%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
P4
4-0 1.5%
4-1 1.6%
4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
P5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (11.9%) 2-1 (9.1%) 2-0 (8.6%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · P=Home goals ↓   J=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Palmeiras Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Junior Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Palmeiras
Overall
6.2
Scoring
5.7
Defence
8.0
Junior
Overall
5.9
Scoring
5.0
Defence
6.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Home Win & BTTS No 19%
Draw & BTTS Yes 13%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Away Win & BTTS No 19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 11%
Home Win & Under 2.5 26%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 18%
Away Win & Over 2.5 11%
Away Win & Under 2.5 26%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
09.04.26COP
Junior1
Palmeiras1
11.04.19COP
Palmeiras3
Junior0
07.03.19COP
Junior0
Palmeiras2
17.05.18COP
Palmeiras3
Junior1
02.03.18COP
Junior0
Palmeiras3
Recent Form
Palmeiras
24.05.26SA
Flamengo RJ0
Palmeiras3
W
21.05.26COP
Palmeiras0
Cerro Porteno1
L
17.05.26SA
Palmeiras1
Cruzeiro1
D
14.05.26COP
Jacuipense1
Palmeiras4
W
10.05.26SA
Remo1
Palmeiras1
D
05.05.26COP
Sporting Cristal0
Palmeiras2
W
02.05.26SA
Palmeiras1
Santos1
D
30.04.26COP
Cerro Porteno1
Palmeiras1
D
26.04.26SA
Bragantino0
Palmeiras1
W
23.04.26COP
Palmeiras3
Jacuipense0
W
Junior
24.05.26PA
Junior1
Santa Fe0
W
21.05.26COP
Junior3
Sporting Cristal2
W
17.05.26PA
Santa Fe1
Junior1
D
14.05.26PA
Junior2
Once Caldas2
D
11.05.26PA
Once Caldas0
Junior1
W
08.05.26COP
Junior0
Cerro Porteno1
L
03.05.26PA
Junior4
Dep. Pasto3
W
29.04.26COP
Sporting Cristal2
Junior0
L
24.04.26PA
Cucuta1
Junior1
D
20.04.26PA
Junior2
Llaneros0
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Copa Libertadores game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.27 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Palmeiras vs Junior?
Our selection is 1 — Palmeiras to win, priced at approximately 1.27. Tip confidence rating: 58%.
What is Palmeiras's current form?
Palmeiras have won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Junior been performing recently?
Junior have recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Palmeiras lead with 4 wins versus Junior's 0, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
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