LOST

Result: Sabah Baku 0-1 Kapaz

Sabah Baku

Home Side

W W W W D

8W 2D 0L

0-1

Azerbaijan Premier League

Kapaz

Away Side

W L L L L

3W 2D 5L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Sabah Baku to win — Friday, 8th May 2026

Best Odds 1.27

Confidence 69%

Implied Prob 78.7%

60%

20%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — Sabah Baku to win

1.27

Over 1.5 Goals85%

Implied Prob

78.7%

Based on 1.27 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-9.7%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Sabah Baku

Draws

Kapaz

Meetings

70%

BTTS Rate

70%

Over 2.5

3.7

Avg Goals

Supports Pick Sabah Baku won 7 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Sabah Baku

Metric

Kapaz

3.1

Goals For / Game

0.9

Goals Against / Game

1.5

40%

Clean Sheet %

20%

8-2-0

W — D — L

3-2-5

Win Rate Comparison

80%

30%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 3.9%

0-1 3.7%

0-2 1.8%

0-3 0.6%

0-4 0.1%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 8.9%

1-1 8.5%

1-2 4.0%

1-3 1.3%

1-4 0.3%

1-5 0.1%

2-0 10.3%

2-1 9.7%

2-2 4.6%

2-3 1.5%

2-4 0.4%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 7.9%

3-1 7.5%

3-2 3.6%

3-3 1.1%

3-4 0.3%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 4.5%

4-1 4.3%

4-2 2.0%

4-3 0.7%

4-4 0.2%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 2.1%

5-1 2.0%

5-2 0.9%

5-3 0.3%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 2-0 (10.3%) 2-1 (9.7%) 1-0 (8.9%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · S=Home goals ↓ K=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Sabah Baku Win

60%

1.67

Draw

20%

Kapaz Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Sabah Baku

Overall

8.6 —

Scoring

10.0 —

Defence

7.0 —

Kapaz

Overall

3.6 ▲

Scoring

3.3 ▲

Defence

5.0 ▲

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 31%

Home Win & BTTS No 31%

Draw & BTTS Yes 8%

Draw & BTTS No 8%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%

Away Win & BTTS No 12%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 37%

Home Win & Under 2.5 25%

Draw & Over 2.5 9%

Draw & Under 2.5 6%

Away Win & Over 2.5 14%

Away Win & Under 2.5 9%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

22.02.26PL

Sabah Baku1

Kapaz0

09.11.25PL

Kapaz1

Sabah Baku3

06.04.25PL

Sabah Baku0

Kapaz1

31.01.25PL

Kapaz3

Sabah Baku2

09.11.24PL

Sabah Baku2

Kapaz2

31.08.24PL

Kapaz2

Sabah Baku3

21.04.24PL

Kapaz1

Sabah Baku2

17.02.24PL

Sabah Baku3

Kapaz2

18.12.23CUP

Kapaz3

Sabah Baku4

03.12.23PL

Kapaz0

Sabah Baku2

Recent Form

Sabah Baku

03.05.26PL

Shamakhi0

Sabah Baku3

27.04.26PL

Sabah Baku2

Karvan0

22.04.26CUP

Sabah Baku2

Qarabag1

18.04.26PL

Qarabag0

Sabah Baku1

11.04.26PL

Sabah Baku2

Zira2

07.04.26PL

Araz2

Sabah Baku4

03.04.26CUP

Qarabag2

Sabah Baku2

19.03.26PL

Sabah Baku3

Sumqayit1

14.03.26PL

Imisli FK0

Sabah Baku5

10.03.26PL

Sabah Baku7

Gabala1

Kapaz

02.05.26PL

Kapaz2

Sumqayit1

26.04.26PL

Shamakhi2

Kapaz0

19.04.26PL

Kapaz0

Imisli FK1

10.04.26PL

Karvan4

Kapaz1

05.04.26PL

Kapaz0

Gabala2

20.03.26PL

Kapaz1

Qarabag0

15.03.26PL

Kapaz1

Turan Tovuz1

09.03.26PL

Zira2

Kapaz2

05.03.26CUP

Kapaz0

Turan Tovuz2

27.02.26PL

Kapaz3

Sumqayit0

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Azerbaijan Premier League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.27 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Sabah Baku vs Kapaz?

Our selection is 1 — Sabah Baku to win, priced at approximately 1.27. Tip confidence rating: 69%.

What is Sabah Baku's current form?

Sabah Baku have won 8, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.

How has Kapaz been performing recently?

Kapaz have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Sabah Baku lead with 7 wins versus Kapaz's 2, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.

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