PENDING
Result: 1 — Riga Mariners to win
DirectWinPredict Latvia Nakotnes Liga Riga Mariners vs JFK Ventspils
R

Riga Mariners

Home Side
L L W W W
7W 2D 1L
VS
3:00 pm
Latvia Nakotnes Liga
J
JFK Ventspils
Away Side
L W D L L
3W 2D 5L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Riga Mariners to win — Saturday, 25th July 2026
Best Odds 1.34
Confidence 60%
Implied Prob 74.6%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Riga Mariners to win
1.34
Over 1.5 Goals80% Riga Mariners Clean Sheet60%
Implied Prob
74.6%
Based on 1.34 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-14.6%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
2
Riga Mariners
0
Draws
1
JFK Ventspils
3
Meetings
67%
BTTS Rate
67%
Over 2.5
2.3
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Riga Mariners won 2 of the last 3 meetings (0 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Riga Mariners
Metric
JFK Ventspils
3
Goals For / Game
1.2
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.3
60%
Clean Sheet %
30%
7-2-1
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate Comparison
70%
30%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
J0
J1
J2
J3
J4
J5
R0
0-0 4.3%
0-1 4.3%
0-2 2.1%
0-3 0.7%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
R1
1-0 9.2%
1-1 9.2%
1-2 4.6%
1-3 1.5%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
R2
2-0 9.9%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.0%
2-3 1.7%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
R3
3-0 7.1%
3-1 7.1%
3-2 3.6%
3-3 1.2%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
R4
4-0 3.8%
4-1 3.8%
4-2 1.9%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
R5
5-0 1.6%
5-1 1.6%
5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-0 (9.9%) 2-1 (9.9%) 1-0 (9.2%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · R=Home goals ↓   J=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Riga Mariners Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
JFK Ventspils Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Riga Mariners
Overall
7.6
Scoring
10.0
Defence
7.3
JFK Ventspils
Overall
3.6
Scoring
4.0
Defence
5.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Home Win & BTTS No 32%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 35%
Home Win & Under 2.5 23%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 15%
Away Win & Under 2.5 10%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
21.03.26NL
JFK Ventspils0
Riga Mariners1
13.09.25NL
JFK Ventspils1
Riga Mariners2
03.05.25NL
Riga Mariners1
JFK Ventspils2
Recent Form
Riga Mariners
18.07.26NL
Leevon PPK2
Riga Mariners1
L
11.07.26LC
Riga Mariners3
BFC Daugavpils (PEN 5 - 6)3
L
04.07.26NL
Alberts JDFS0
Riga Mariners4
W
27.06.26NL
Riga Mariners2
Marupe0
W
20.06.26LC
Riga Mariners1
Alberts JDFS0
W
14.06.26NL
Skanste0
Riga Mariners2
W
30.05.26LC
RFK/RFS0
Riga Mariners11
W
23.05.26NL
Riga Mariners2
Metta2
D
16.05.26NL
Riga Mariners3
Valmiera1
W
09.05.26NL
Riga Mariners1
FK Smiltene0
W
JFK Ventspils
18.07.26NL
JFK Ventspils1
Alberts JDFS3
L
11.07.26NL
Skanste0
JFK Ventspils3
W
04.07.26NL
Rezekne1
JFK Ventspils1
D
28.06.26NL
JFK Ventspils0
Valmiera2
L
20.06.26LC
JFK Ventspils1
Leevon PPK3
L
14.06.26NL
Marupe1
JFK Ventspils2
W
01.06.26LC
Upesciema Warriors0
JFK Ventspils3
W
23.05.26NL
Leevon PPK2
JFK Ventspils1
L
09.05.26NL
JFK Ventspils0
Metta1
L
02.05.26NL
JFK Ventspils0
RFS 20
D
Riga Mariners (Home)
11.07.26LC
Riga Mariners3
BFC Daugavpils (PEN 5 - 6)3
L
27.06.26NL
Riga Mariners2
Marupe0
W
20.06.26LC
Riga Mariners1
Alberts JDFS0
W
23.05.26NL
Riga Mariners2
Metta2
D
16.05.26NL
Riga Mariners3
Valmiera1
W
09.05.26NL
Riga Mariners1
FK Smiltene0
W
19.04.26NL
Riga Mariners2
Riga FC 22
D
04.04.26NL
Riga Mariners1
Super Nova 21
D
27.02.26CF
Riga Mariners1
Tammeka1
D
01.11.25NL
Riga Mariners4
RFS 23
W
JFK Ventspils (Away)
11.07.26NL
Skanste0
JFK Ventspils3
W
04.07.26NL
Rezekne1
JFK Ventspils1
D
14.06.26NL
Marupe1
JFK Ventspils2
W
01.06.26LC
Upesciema Warriors0
JFK Ventspils3
W
23.05.26NL
Leevon PPK2
JFK Ventspils1
L
26.04.26NL
Riga FC 24
JFK Ventspils2
L
11.04.26NL
Super Nova 23
JFK Ventspils1
L
28.03.26NL
FK Smiltene3
JFK Ventspils3
D
08.11.25NL
Leevon PPK3
JFK Ventspils2
L
25.10.25NL
Skanste0
JFK Ventspils0
D
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Saturday, 25th July 2026, Riga Mariners host JFK Ventspils at N/A in Latvia Nakotnes Liga. We recommend Riga Mariners to win as the standout selection.

Riga Mariners arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

JFK Ventspils are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 2D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Riga Mariners, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to JFK Ventspils's 1, with 0 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 67% of those meetings.

Our verdict: riga mariners to win at odds of 1.34 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Latvia Nakotnes Liga preview lives.

The home team strides in on 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at N/A, and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1, priced at @1.34, which the numbers settle at around 50,30,20%. The whistle goes at 3:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Riga Mariners vs JFK Ventspils?
Our selection is 1 — Riga Mariners to win, priced at approximately 1.34. Tip confidence rating: 60%.
What is Riga Mariners's current form?
Riga Mariners have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has JFK Ventspils been performing recently?
JFK Ventspils have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Riga Mariners lead with 2 wins versus JFK Ventspils's 1, with 0 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 67%.
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