PENDING
Result: 1 — Metropolitano to win
DirectWinPredict Brazil Catarinense 2 Metropolitano vs Fluminense-SC
M

Metropolitano

Home Side
W W L W W
7W 1D 2L
VS
7:00 pm
Brazil Catarinense 2
F
Fluminense-SC
Away Side
W L D W D
3W 2D 5L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Metropolitano to win — Saturday, 25th July 2026
Best Odds 1.42
Confidence 63%
Implied Prob 70.4%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Metropolitano to win
1.42
Over 1.5 Goals80%
Implied Prob
70.4%
Based on 1.42 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-7.4%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
3
Metropolitano
0
Draws
1
Fluminense-SC
4
Meetings
25%
BTTS Rate
25%
Over 2.5
1.8
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Metropolitano won 3 of the last 4 meetings (0 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Metropolitano
Metric
Fluminense-SC
2.2
Goals For / Game
1
1.3
Goals Against / Game
1.6
30%
Clean Sheet %
10%
7-1-2
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate Comparison
70%
30%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
M0
0-0 4.7%
0-1 5.5%
0-2 3.1%
0-3 1.2%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
M1
1-0 9.0%
1-1 10.4%
1-2 6.0%
1-3 2.3%
1-4 0.7%
1-5 0.2%
M2
2-0 8.6%
2-1 9.8%
2-2 5.7%
2-3 2.2%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
M3
3-0 5.4%
3-1 6.2%
3-2 3.6%
3-3 1.4%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
M4
4-0 2.6%
4-1 3.0%
4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.7%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
M5
5-0 1.0%
5-1 1.1%
5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.8%) 1-0 (9.0%) 2-0 (8.6%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · M=Home goals ↓   F=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Metropolitano Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Fluminense-SC Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Metropolitano
Overall
7.3
Scoring
7.3
Defence
5.7
Fluminense-SC
Overall
3.6
Scoring
3.3
Defence
4.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 37%
Home Win & BTTS No 24%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 16%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 37%
Home Win & Under 2.5 24%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 16%
Away Win & Under 2.5 10%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
11.06.26CAT2
Fluminense-SC1
Metropolitano3
06.07.25CAT2
Metropolitano1
Fluminense-SC0
11.10.18CSC
Metropolitano1
Fluminense-SC0
06.10.18CSC
Fluminense-SC1
Metropolitano0
Recent Form
Metropolitano
22.07.26CAT2
Gremio Juventus0
Metropolitano2
W
18.07.26CAT2
Metropolitano6
Jaragua-SC1
W
15.07.26CAT2
Blumenau4
Metropolitano1
L
12.07.26CAT2
Tubarao2
Metropolitano3
W
05.07.26CAT2
Metropolitano2
Caravaggio1
W
02.07.26CAT2
Nacao0
Metropolitano0
D
21.06.26CAT2
Hercilio Luz3
Metropolitano0
L
14.06.26CAT2
Metropolitano3
Guarani de Palhoca1
W
11.06.26CAT2
Fluminense-SC1
Metropolitano3
W
30.05.26CAT2
Metropolitano2
Gremio Juventus0
W
Fluminense-SC
22.07.26CAT2
Fluminense-SC2
Tubarao1
W
19.07.26CAT2
Gremio Juventus3
Fluminense-SC0
L
15.07.26CAT2
Fluminense-SC1
Guarani de Palhoca1
D
12.07.26CAT2
Nacao1
Fluminense-SC2
W
04.07.26CAT2
Fluminense-SC1
Blumenau1
D
28.06.26CAT2
Hercilio Luz4
Fluminense-SC2
L
21.06.26CAT2
Fluminense-SC1
Jaragua-SC0
W
14.06.26CAT2
Caravaggio1
Fluminense-SC0
L
11.06.26CAT2
Fluminense-SC1
Metropolitano3
L
31.05.26CAT2
Tubarao1
Fluminense-SC0
L
Metropolitano (Home)
18.07.26CAT2
Metropolitano6
Jaragua-SC1
W
05.07.26CAT2
Metropolitano2
Caravaggio1
W
14.06.26CAT2
Metropolitano3
Guarani de Palhoca1
W
30.05.26CAT2
Metropolitano2
Gremio Juventus0
W
20.05.26CAT2
Metropolitano1
Blumenau0
W
17.05.26CAT2
Metropolitano0
Tubarao1
L
06.05.26CAT2
Metropolitano5
Nacao2
W
03.05.26CAT2
Metropolitano0
Hercilio Luz0
D
10.08.25CAT2
Metropolitano1
Carlos Renaux1
D
03.08.25CAT2
Metropolitano2
Tubarao0
W
Fluminense-SC (Away)
19.07.26CAT2
Gremio Juventus3
Fluminense-SC0
L
12.07.26CAT2
Nacao1
Fluminense-SC2
W
28.06.26CAT2
Hercilio Luz4
Fluminense-SC2
L
14.06.26CAT2
Caravaggio1
Fluminense-SC0
L
31.05.26CAT2
Tubarao1
Fluminense-SC0
L
23.05.26CAT2
Guarani de Palhoca1
Fluminense-SC0
L
10.05.26CAT2
Blumenau0
Fluminense-SC1
W
03.05.26CAT2
Jaragua-SC1
Fluminense-SC2
W
27.07.25CAT2
Porto-SC0
Fluminense-SC2
W
06.07.25CAT2
Metropolitano1
Fluminense-SC0
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Saturday, 25th July 2026, Metropolitano host Fluminense-SC at N/A in Brazil Catarinense 2. We recommend Metropolitano to win as the standout selection.

Metropolitano arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Fluminense-SC are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 2D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Metropolitano, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Fluminense-SC's 1, with 0 draws from 4 encounters. Both teams have scored in 25% of those meetings.

Our verdict: metropolitano to win at odds of 1.42 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Brazil Catarinense 2 preview lives.

The home team strides in on 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at N/A, and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1, priced at @1.42, which the numbers settle at around 50,30,20%. The whistle goes at 7:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Metropolitano vs Fluminense-SC?
Our selection is 1 — Metropolitano to win, priced at approximately 1.42. Tip confidence rating: 63%.
What is Metropolitano's current form?
Metropolitano have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Fluminense-SC been performing recently?
Fluminense-SC have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Metropolitano lead with 3 wins versus Fluminense-SC's 1, with 0 draws across 4 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 25%.
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