WON
Result: PSG 3-1 Toulouse
DirectWinPredict Ligue 1 PSG vs Toulouse
P

PSG

Home Side
W W W L W
7W 1D 2L
VS
3-1
Ligue 1
T
Toulouse
Away Side
W W L W L
3W 3D 4L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals — Friday, 3rd April 2026
Best Odds 1.53
Confidence 82%
Implied Prob 65.4%
Head to Head Record
8
PSG
1
Draws
1
Toulouse
10
Meetings
40%
BTTS Rate
60%
Over 2.5
3.2
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 2.5 in 60% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
PSG
Metric
Toulouse
2.8
Goals For / Game
1
1.2
Goals Against / Game
1.1
50%
Clean Sheet %
30%
7-1-2
W — D — L
3-3-4
Win Rate Comparison
70%
30%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
P0
0-0 4.7%
0-1 5.2%
0-2 2.9%
0-3 1.1%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
P1
1-0 9.2%
1-1 10.2%
1-2 5.6%
1-3 2.1%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
P2
2-0 9.0%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.5%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
P3
3-0 5.9%
3-1 6.4%
3-2 3.5%
3-3 1.3%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
P4
4-0 2.9%
4-1 3.1%
4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
P5
5-0 1.1%
5-1 1.2%
5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-1 (10.2%) 2-1 (9.9%) 1-0 (9.2%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · P=Home goals ↓   T=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
PSG
Overall
7.3
Scoring
9.3
Defence
6.0
Toulouse
Overall
3.9
Scoring
3.3
Defence
6.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Home Win & BTTS No 32%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 35%
Home Win & Under 2.5 23%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 15%
Away Win & Under 2.5 10%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
30.08.25
Ligue 1: Toulouse3
PSG6
15.02.25
Ligue 1: Toulouse0
PSG1
22.11.24
Ligue 1: PSG3
Toulouse0
12.05.24
Ligue 1: PSG1
Toulouse3
03.01.24
Trophee des Champions: PSG2
Toulouse0
19.08.23
Ligue 1: Toulouse1
PSG1
04.02.23
Ligue 1: PSG2
Toulouse1
31.08.22
Ligue 1: Toulouse0
PSG3
25.08.19
Ligue 1: PSG4
Toulouse0
31.03.19
Ligue 1: Toulouse0
PSG1
Recent Form
PSG
21.03.26
Ligue 1: Nice0
PSG4
W
17.03.26
UCL: Chelsea0
PSG3
W
11.03.26
UCL: PSG5
Chelsea2
W
06.03.26
Ligue 1: PSG1
Monaco3
L
28.02.26
Ligue 1: Le Havre0
PSG1
W
25.02.26
UCL: PSG2
Monaco2
D
21.02.26
Ligue 1: PSG3
Metz0
W
17.02.26
UCL: Monaco2
PSG3
W
13.02.26
Ligue 1: Rennes3
PSG1
L
08.02.26
Ligue 1: PSG5
Marseille0
W
Toulouse
21.03.26
L1: Toulouse1
Lorient0
W
15.03.26
L1: Metz3
Toulouse4
W
07.03.26
L1: Toulouse0
Marseille1
L
04.03.26
CDF: Marseille2
Toulouse (2-3 Pens)2
W
28.02.26
L1: Rennes1
Toulouse0
L
21.02.26
L1: Toulouse1
Paris FC1
D
15.02.26
L1: Le Havre2
Toulouse1
L
08.02.26
L1: Angers1
Toulouse0
L
04.02.26
CDF: Toulouse1
Amiens0
W
01.02.26
L1: Toulouse0
Auxerre0
D
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Friday, 3rd April 2026, PSG host Toulouse in Ligue 1. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

PSG arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Toulouse are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 3D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour PSG, who lead the head-to-head with 8 wins to Toulouse's 1, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.53 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Ligue 1 game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is Over 2.5, and it looks even better when you see the @1.53 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for PSG vs Toulouse?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.53. Tip confidence rating: 82%.
What is PSG's current form?
PSG have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Toulouse been performing recently?
Toulouse have recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
PSG lead with 8 wins versus Toulouse's 1, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
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