WON
Result: Parnu JK Vaprus 1-2 Flora
DirectWinPredict Estonia Meistriliiga Parnu JK Vaprus vs Flora
P

Parnu JK Vaprus

Home Side
D W L W W
5W 2D 3L
VS
1-2
Estonia Meistriliiga
F
Flora
Away Side
L W W W W
8W 0D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
2
Backing Flora to win — Tuesday, 16th June 2026
Best Odds 1.40
Confidence 64%
Implied Prob 71.4%
H
30%
D
20%
A
50%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
2 — Flora to win
1.40
Over 2.5 Goals65% Flora Clean Sheet60%
Implied Prob
71.4%
Based on 1.40 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-7.4%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
2
Parnu JK Vaprus
1
Draws
7
Flora
10
Meetings
20%
BTTS Rate
60%
Over 2.5
2.5
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Flora won 7 of 10 meetings.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Parnu JK Vaprus
Metric
Flora
1.3
Goals For / Game
2.8
1.4
Goals Against / Game
0.9
40%
Clean Sheet %
60%
5-2-3
W — D — L
8-0-2
Win Rate Comparison
50%
80%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
P0
0-0 4.1%
0-1 8.6%
0-2 9.0%
0-3 6.3%
0-4 3.3%
0-5 1.4%
P1
1-0 4.5%
1-1 9.4%
1-2 9.9%
1-3 6.9%
1-4 3.6%
1-5 1.5%
P2
2-0 2.5%
2-1 5.2%
2-2 5.4%
2-3 3.8%
2-4 2.0%
2-5 0.8%
P3
3-0 0.9%
3-1 1.9%
3-2 2.0%
3-3 1.4%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.3%
P4
4-0 0.3%
4-1 0.5%
4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
P5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-2 (9.9%) 0-2 (9.0%) 0-1 (8.6%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · P=Home goals ↓   F=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Parnu JK Vaprus Win
30%
3.33
Draw
20%
5
Flora Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Parnu JK Vaprus
Overall
5.6
Scoring
4.3
Defence
5.3
Flora
Overall
8.0
Scoring
9.3
Defence
7.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Home Win & BTTS No 22%
Draw & BTTS Yes 3%
Draw & BTTS No 4%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 23%
Away Win & BTTS No 34%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 23%
Home Win & Under 2.5 13%
Draw & Over 2.5 5%
Draw & Under 2.5 2%
Away Win & Over 2.5 37%
Away Win & Under 2.5 20%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
12.04.26ML
Flora2
Parnu JK Vaprus0
17.01.26CF
Parnu JK Vaprus2
Flora2
08.11.25ML
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Flora3
13.09.25ML
Flora3
Parnu JK Vaprus0
02.05.25ML
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Flora3
08.03.25ML
Flora0
Parnu JK Vaprus1
29.09.24ML
Flora3
Parnu JK Vaprus0
23.08.24ML
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Flora1
11.05.24ML
Flora0
Parnu JK Vaprus1
14.04.24ML
Parnu JK Vaprus1
Flora3
Recent Form
Parnu JK Vaprus
13.06.26ML
Tammeka0
Parnu JK Vaprus0
D
30.05.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus3
Kalju1
W
24.05.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus1
Levadia6
L
16.05.26ML
Harju JK Laagri1
Parnu JK Vaprus2
W
09.05.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus2
Narva0
W
06.05.26CUP
Paide2
Parnu JK Vaprus0
L
02.05.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus2
Nomme Utd3
L
26.04.26ML
Kalju1
Parnu JK Vaprus2
W
21.04.26ML
Kuressaare0
Parnu JK Vaprus1
W
18.04.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Tammeka0
D
Flora
13.06.26ML
Flora1
Levadia3
L
29.05.26ML
Nomme Utd0
Flora4
W
23.05.26CUP
Paide1
Flora5
W
16.05.26ML
Narva0
Flora3
W
10.05.26ML
Kalju0
Flora1
W
05.05.26CUP
Flora1
Narva0
W
30.04.26ML
Flora5
Harju JK Laagri0
W
26.04.26ML
Paide1
Flora2
W
22.04.26ML
Flora6
Narva0
W
19.04.26ML
Levadia4
Flora0
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Tuesday, 16th June 2026, Parnu JK Vaprus host Flora in Estonia Meistriliiga. We recommend Flora to win as the standout selection.

Parnu JK Vaprus arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Flora are travelling well, with a record of 8W 0D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Parnu JK Vaprus, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Flora's 7, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 20% of those meetings.

Our verdict: flora to win at odds of 1.40 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Estonia Meistriliiga game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 2, and it looks even better when you see the @1.40 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Parnu JK Vaprus vs Flora?
Our selection is 2 — Flora to win, priced at approximately 1.40. Tip confidence rating: 64%.
What is Parnu JK Vaprus's current form?
Parnu JK Vaprus have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Flora been performing recently?
Flora have recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Parnu JK Vaprus lead with 2 wins versus Flora's 7, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.
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