WON
Result: Neptunas 2-1 Kauno Zalgiris 2
DirectWinPredict Lithuania 1 Lyga Neptunas vs Kauno Zalgiris 2
N

Neptunas

Home Side
W W W W L
7W 0D 3L
VS
2-1
Lithuania 1 Lyga
K
Kauno Zalgiris 2
Away Side
L W W L L
3W 0D 7L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Neptunas to win — Thursday, 18th June 2026
Best Odds 1.30
Confidence 59%
Implied Prob 76.9%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Neptunas to win
1.30
BTTS — No65%
Implied Prob
76.9%
Based on 1.30 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-17.9%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
5
Neptunas
1
Draws
2
Kauno Zalgiris 2
8
Meetings
63%
BTTS Rate
88%
Over 2.5
3.9
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Neptunas won 5 of the last 8 meetings (1 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Neptunas
Metric
Kauno Zalgiris 2
1.7
Goals For / Game
0.5
1.3
Goals Against / Game
1.6
30%
Clean Sheet %
30%
7-0-3
W — D — L
3-0-7
Win Rate Comparison
70%
30%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
K0
K1
K2
K3
K4
K5
N0
0-0 7.8%
0-1 7.0%
0-2 3.2%
0-3 1.0%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
N1
1-0 12.9%
1-1 11.6%
1-2 5.2%
1-3 1.6%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
N2
2-0 10.6%
2-1 9.6%
2-2 4.3%
2-3 1.3%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
N3
3-0 5.9%
3-1 5.3%
3-2 2.4%
3-3 0.7%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
N4
4-0 2.4%
4-1 2.2%
4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
N5
5-0 0.8%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (12.9%) 2-0 (10.6%) 2-1 (9.6%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · N=Home goals ↓   K=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Neptunas Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Kauno Zalgiris 2 Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Neptunas
Overall
7.0
Scoring
5.7
Defence
5.7
Kauno Zalgiris 2
Overall
3.0
Scoring
1.7
Defence
4.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 25%
Home Win & BTTS No 46%
Draw & BTTS Yes 0%
Draw & BTTS No 0%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 20%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 35%
Home Win & Under 2.5 35%
Draw & Over 2.5 0%
Draw & Under 2.5 0%
Away Win & Over 2.5 15%
Away Win & Under 2.5 15%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
24.10.25IL
Neptunas3
Kauno Zalgiris 21
17.06.25IL
Kauno Zalgiris 21
Neptunas3
18.08.24IL
Kauno Zalgiris 22
Neptunas2
22.03.24IL
Neptunas2
Kauno Zalgiris 21
04.11.23IL
Kauno Zalgiris 25
Neptunas1
23.06.23IL
Neptunas5
Kauno Zalgiris 20
02.10.21IL
Kauno Zalgiris 23
Neptunas0
20.06.21IL
Neptunas2
Kauno Zalgiris 20
Recent Form
Neptunas
10.06.26IL
Neptunas3
Transinvest 20
W
05.06.26IL
Ekranas1
Neptunas2
W
30.05.26IL
Neptunas1
BE1 NFA0
W
22.05.26IL
Hegelmann Litauen 22
Neptunas3
W
16.05.26IL
Neptunas1
FK Minija3
L
08.05.26IL
Jonava0
Neptunas1
W
02.05.26IL
Neptunas2
Zalgiris 21
W
25.04.26IL
Atmosfera1
Neptunas3
W
22.04.26CUP
Neptunas0
Dziugas Telsiai2
L
17.04.26IL
Neptunas1
BFA Vilnius3
L
Kauno Zalgiris 2
12.06.26IL
Kauno Zalgiris 20
Dainava Alytus2
L
30.05.26IL
Transinvest 20
Kauno Zalgiris 21
W
24.05.26IL
Kauno Zalgiris 22
Siauliai 20
W
15.05.26IL
Garliava3
Kauno Zalgiris 20
L
08.05.26IL
Ekranas1
Kauno Zalgiris 20
L
02.05.26IL
Kauno Zalgiris 20
BE1 NFA1
L
24.04.26IL
Hegelmann Litauen 22
Kauno Zalgiris 20
L
19.04.26IL
Kauno Zalgiris 20
FK Minija4
L
12.04.26IL
Kauno Zalgiris 20
Zalgiris 21
L
04.04.26IL
Jonava3
Kauno Zalgiris 21
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Thursday, 18th June 2026, Neptunas host Kauno Zalgiris 2 in Lithuania 1 Lyga. We recommend Neptunas to win as the standout selection.

Neptunas arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Kauno Zalgiris 2 are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 0D 7L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Neptunas, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Kauno Zalgiris 2's 2, with 1 draws from 8 encounters. Both teams have scored in 63% of those meetings.

Our verdict: neptunas to win at odds of 1.30 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Lithuania 1 Lyga game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.30 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Neptunas vs Kauno Zalgiris 2?
Our selection is 1 — Neptunas to win, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 59%.
What is Neptunas's current form?
Neptunas have won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Kauno Zalgiris 2 been performing recently?
Kauno Zalgiris 2 have recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Neptunas lead with 5 wins versus Kauno Zalgiris 2's 2, with 1 draws across 8 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 63%.
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