WON
Result: Neftchi Fargona 3-0 Andijan
DirectWinPredict Uzbekistan Super League Neftchi Fargona vs Andijan
N

Neftchi Fargona

Home Side
W W W W L
4W 0D 1L
VS
3-0
Uzbekistan Super League
A
Andijan
Away Side
L W L D D
1W 2D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Neftchi Fargona to win — Tuesday, 10th March 2026
Best Odds 1.43
Confidence 57%
Implied Prob 69.9%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Neftchi Fargona to win
1.43
Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals90%
Implied Prob
69.9%
Based on 1.43 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-12.9%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
2
Neftchi Fargona
3
Draws
0
Andijan
5
Meetings
20%
BTTS Rate
20%
Over 2.5
1.6
Avg Goals
Against Pick Neftchi Fargona won 2 of the last 5 meetings (3 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Neftchi Fargona
Metric
Andijan
2.6
Goals For / Game
1.4
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1
40%
Clean Sheet %
40%
4-0-1
W — D — L
1-2-2
Win Rate Comparison
80%
20%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
N0
0-0 5.5%
0-1 6.1%
0-2 3.3%
0-3 1.2%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
N1
1-0 9.9%
1-1 10.9%
1-2 6.0%
1-3 2.2%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
N2
2-0 8.9%
2-1 9.8%
2-2 5.4%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
N3
3-0 5.4%
3-1 5.9%
3-2 3.2%
3-3 1.2%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
N4
4-0 2.4%
4-1 2.7%
4-2 1.5%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
N5
5-0 0.9%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (9.9%) 2-1 (9.8%) 2-0 (8.9%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · N=Home goals ↓   A=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Neftchi Fargona Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Andijan Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Neftchi Fargona
Overall
8.0
Scoring
8.7
Defence
7.3
Andijan
Overall
3.2
Scoring
4.7
Defence
6.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 40%
Home Win & BTTS No 27%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Away Win & BTTS No 6%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 54%
Home Win & Under 2.5 13%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 3%
Away Win & Over 2.5 13%
Away Win & Under 2.5 3%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
⚽ SL (05.10.25): Neftchi Fargona2
Andijan0
⚽ SL (09.05.25): Andijan0
Neftchi Fargona2
⚽ SL (25.09.24): Andijan0
Neftchi Fargona0
⚽ SL (12.05.24): Neftchi Fargona2
Andijan2
⚽ SL (31.08.23): Neftchi Fargona0
Andijan0
Recent Form
Neftchi Fargona
⚽ SL (05.03.26): Termez Surkhon0
Neftchi Fargona3
⚽ SL (28.02.26): Neftchi Fargona3
Mashal Muborak0
⚽ CF (10.02.26): Neftchi Fargona4
Dinamo Batumi1
⚽ CF (07.02.26): Oleksandriya1
Neftchi Fargona2
⚽ CF (31.01.26): Neftchi Fargona1
Arkadag2
Andijan
⚽ SL (04.03.26): Qizilqum2
Andijan1
⚽ SL (27.02.26): Andijan4
Sogdiana0
⚽ CF (17.02.26): Dynamo Makhachkala2
Andijan1
⚽ CF (05.02.26): FK Zorya Luhansk0
Andijan0
⚽ CF (20.01.26): Vardar1
Andijan1
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Tuesday, 10th March 2026, Neftchi Fargona host Andijan in Uzbekistan Super League. We recommend Neftchi Fargona to win as the standout selection.

Neftchi Fargona arrive in strong form, having recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Andijan are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 2D 2L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Neftchi Fargona, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Andijan's 0, with 3 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 20% of those meetings.

Our verdict: neftchi fargona to win at odds of 1.43 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Let’s talk about the Uzbekistan Super League. Neftchi Fargona is hosting Andijan, and the stakes are pretty clear. From a must-win perspective, Neftchi needs to lay down a marker early in the season to maintain their stronghold at the top end of the table. They cannot afford to drop points in front of their home crowd if they want to control the title race. As a form watcher, it’s hard not to be impressed by what Neftchi is doing right now. They are scoring goals for fun, highlighted by back-to-back 3-0 thrashings against Mashal Muborak and Termez Surkhon. Their attack is absolutely clicking. On the flip side, Andijan is coming into this fixture reeling from a frustrating 2-1 defeat to Qizilqum. They look shaky at the back, which is the exact opposite of what you want when visiting a team averaging three goals a game. Diving into the H2H records, Neftchi has historically dominated this fixture at home, turning their stadium into a total fortress. Andijan occasionally causes problems, but they tend to fold under sustained pressure. Given Neftchi’s lethal attacking rhythm and Andijan’s recent defensive hiccups, all signs point to the home side controlling the tempo from the opening whistle.

  • Prediction: Neftchi Fargona to win.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Neftchi Fargona vs Andijan?
Our selection is 1 — Neftchi Fargona to win, priced at approximately 1.43. Tip confidence rating: 57%.
What is Neftchi Fargona's current form?
Neftchi Fargona have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.
How has Andijan been performing recently?
Andijan have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Neftchi Fargona lead with 2 wins versus Andijan's 0, with 3 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.
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