WON
Result: Kauno Zalgiris 4-0 Panevezys
DirectWinPredict Lithuania TopLyga Kauno Zalgiris vs Panevezys
K

Kauno Zalgiris

Home Side
W W W W W
5W 0D 0L
VS
4-0
Lithuania TopLyga
P
Panevezys
Away Side
D L D L W
1W 2D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Kauno Zalgiris to win — Tuesday, 10th March 2026
Best Odds 1.43
Confidence 68%
Implied Prob 69.9%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Head to Head Record
4
Kauno Zalgiris
0
Draws
1
Panevezys
5
Meetings
20%
BTTS Rate
40%
Over 2.5
2.4
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Kauno Zalgiris won 4 of the last 5 meetings (0 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Kauno Zalgiris
Metric
Panevezys
1.6
Goals For / Game
1.2
0.6
Goals Against / Game
1.4
40%
Clean Sheet %
20%
5-0-0
W — D — L
1-2-2
Win Rate Comparison
100%
20%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
K0
0-0 9.1%
0-1 8.2%
0-2 3.7%
0-3 1.1%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.0%
K1
1-0 13.6%
1-1 12.3%
1-2 5.5%
1-3 1.7%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
K2
2-0 10.2%
2-1 9.2%
2-2 4.1%
2-3 1.2%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
K3
3-0 5.1%
3-1 4.6%
3-2 2.1%
3-3 0.6%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
K4
4-0 1.9%
4-1 1.7%
4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
K5
5-0 0.6%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (13.6%) 2-0 (10.2%) 2-1 (9.2%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · K=Home goals ↓   P=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Kauno Zalgiris Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Panevezys Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Kauno Zalgiris
Overall
10.0
Scoring
5.3
Defence
8.0
Panevezys
Overall
3.2
Scoring
4.0
Defence
5.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 43%
Home Win & BTTS No 28%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 9%
Away Win & BTTS No 6%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 36%
Home Win & Under 2.5 36%
Draw & Over 2.5 7%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 8%
Away Win & Under 2.5 8%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
⚽ SC (16.02.26): Kauno Zalgiris1
FK Panevezys0
⚽ TL (02.11.25): Kauno Zalgiris3
FK Panevezys2
⚽ TL (24.08.25): FK Panevezys1
Kauno Zalgiris0
⚽ TL (24.06.25): Kauno Zalgiris3
FK Panevezys0
⚽ TL (19.04.25): FK Panevezys0
Kauno Zalgiris2
Recent Form
Kauno Zalgiris
⚽ TL (07.03.26): Dziugas Telsiai1
Kauno Zalgiris2
⚽ TL (28.02.26): Kauno Zalgiris1
Banga0
⚽ TL (23.02.26): Riteriai1
Kauno Zalgiris2
⚽ SC (16.02.26): Kauno Zalgiris1
FK Panevezys0
⚽ CF (06.02.26): Kauno Zalgiris2
Zimbru Chisinau1
Panevezys
⚽ TL (07.03.26): FK Panevezys1
Hegelmann1
⚽ TL (27.02.26): Zalgiris4
FK Panevezys1
⚽ TL (22.02.26): FK Panevezys0
Suduva0
⚽ SC (16.02.26): Kauno Zalgiris1
FK Panevezys0
⚽ CF (11.02.26): FK Panevezys4
Transinvest1
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Tuesday, 10th March 2026, Kauno Zalgiris host Panevezys in Lithuania TopLyga. We recommend Kauno Zalgiris to win as the standout selection.

Kauno Zalgiris arrive in strong form, having recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Panevezys are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 2D 2L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Kauno Zalgiris, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Panevezys's 1, with 0 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 20% of those meetings.

Our verdict: kauno zalgiris to win at odds of 1.43 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


This Lithuanian A Lyga showdown brings plenty of intrigue, even early in the calendar year. Looking through the must-win lens, Kauno Zalgiris is out to prove that their recent championship pedigree is no fluke and that they remain the unquestioned top dogs in Lithuanian football. Sitting comfortably at the top of the table, they want to lay down a heavy marker to show they fully intend to go back-to-back this season. For Panevezys, currently struggling in the bottom half of the standings, it is a desperate scramble to find its footing against a heavyweight.

As a form watcher, Kauno Zalgiris brings a lot more battle-tested momentum to the pitch right now. They know how to grind out results in tight, high-pressure environments, having kicked off their 2026 campaign with a flawless winning streak. Panevezys has looked lively in brief spurts this year, but they consistently struggle to maintain tactical discipline for a full 90 minutes when pressed by superior opposition—highlighted by recent defensive collapses and heavy dropped points.

When analyzing the H2H encounters, Kauno Zalgiris clearly holds the psychological edge. They have consistently managed to outmaneuver Panevezys in recent pivotal matches, including back-to-back victories over the last few months. Kauno uses a solid defensive block to neutralize Panevezys’s forward advances before striking brutally on the counter. Add in the distinct benefit of playing on their home turf, and Kauno Zalgiris has the tactical maturity to absorb any early pressure, dictate the tempo of the game in the second half, and comfortably walk away with all three points.

  • Prediction: Kauno Zalgiris to win.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Kauno Zalgiris vs Panevezys?
Our selection is 1 — Kauno Zalgiris to win, priced at approximately 1.43. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is Kauno Zalgiris's current form?
Kauno Zalgiris have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.
How has Panevezys been performing recently?
Panevezys have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Kauno Zalgiris lead with 4 wins versus Panevezys's 1, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.
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