WON
Result: Man United 3-2 Liverpool
DirectWinPredict Premier League Man United vs Liverpool
M

Man United

Home Side
W W L D W
6W 2D 2L
VS
3-2
Premier League
L
Liverpool
Away Side
W W L W L
4W 1D 5L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals — Sunday, 3rd May 2026
Best Odds 1.15
Confidence 76%
Implied Prob 87%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.15
Under 2.5 Goals75% BTTS — No80%
Implied Prob
87%
Based on 1.15 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-11%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
0
Man United
7
Draws
3
Liverpool
10
Meetings
50%
BTTS Rate
90%
Over 2.5
3.8
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 1.5 in 90% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Man United
Metric
Liverpool
0
Goals For / Game
1.3
0
Goals Against / Game
1.4
0%
Clean Sheet %
20%
6-2-2
W — D — L
4-1-5
Win Rate Comparison
60%
40%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
L0
L1
L2
L3
L4
L5
M0
0-0 25.9%
0-1 16.9%
0-2 5.5%
0-3 1.2%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
M1
1-0 18.2%
1-1 11.8%
1-2 3.8%
1-3 0.8%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
M2
2-0 6.4%
2-1 4.1%
2-2 1.3%
2-3 0.3%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
M3
3-0 1.5%
3-1 1.0%
3-2 0.3%
3-3 0.1%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
M4
4-0 0.3%
4-1 0.2%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
M5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 0-0 (25.9%) 1-0 (18.2%) 0-1 (16.9%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · M=Home goals ↓   L=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Man United
Overall
6.6
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
Liverpool
Overall
4.3
Scoring
4.3
Defence
5.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Home Win & BTTS No 42%
Draw & BTTS Yes 3%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Away Win & BTTS No 28%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 13%
Home Win & Under 2.5 39%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 10%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 26%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
19.10.25PL
Liverpool1
Manchester Utd2
05.01.25PL
Liverpool2
Manchester Utd2
01.09.24PL
Manchester Utd0
Liverpool3
04.08.24CF
Manchester Utd0
Liverpool3
07.04.24PL
Manchester Utd2
Liverpool2
17.03.24FAC
Manchester Utd4
Liverpool (aet)3
17.12.23PL
Liverpool0
Manchester Utd0
05.03.23PL
Liverpool7
Manchester Utd0
22.08.22PL
Manchester Utd2
Liverpool1
12.07.22CF
Manchester Utd4
Liverpool0
Recent Form
Man United
27.04.26PL
Manchester Utd2
Brentford1
W
18.04.26PL
Chelsea0
Manchester Utd1
W
13.04.26PL
Manchester Utd1
Leeds2
L
20.03.26PL
Bournemouth2
Manchester Utd2
D
15.03.26PL
Manchester Utd3
Aston Villa1
W
04.03.26PL
Newcastle2
Manchester Utd1
L
01.03.26PL
Manchester Utd2
Crystal Palace1
W
23.02.26PL
Everton0
Manchester Utd1
W
10.02.26PL
West Ham1
Manchester Utd1
D
07.02.26PL
Manchester Utd2
Tottenham0
W
Liverpool
25.04.26PL
Liverpool3
Crystal Palace1
W
19.04.26PL
Everton1
Liverpool2
W
14.04.26CL
Liverpool0
PSG2
L
11.04.26PL
Liverpool2
Fulham0
W
08.04.26CL
PSG2
Liverpool0
L
04.04.26FAC
Manchester City4
Liverpool0
L
21.03.26PL
Brighton2
Liverpool1
L
18.03.26CL
Liverpool4
Galatasaray0
W
15.03.26PL
Liverpool1
Tottenham1
D
10.03.26CL
Galatasaray1
Liverpool0
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Sunday, 3rd May 2026, Man United host Liverpool in Premier League. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.

Man United arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Liverpool are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 1D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Man United, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Liverpool's 3, with 7 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.15 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Premier League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is Over 1.5, and it looks even better when you see the @1.15 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Man United vs Liverpool?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.15. Tip confidence rating: 76%.
What is Man United's current form?
Man United have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Liverpool been performing recently?
Liverpool have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Man United lead with 0 wins versus Liverpool's 3, with 7 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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