WON
Result: Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 Polokwane
DirectWinPredict South Africa Premiership Mamelodi Sundowns vs Polokwane
M

Mamelodi Sundowns

Home Side
W D D W W
7W 2D 1L
VS
1-0
South Africa Premiership
P
Polokwane
Away Side
L W D D W
3W 4D 3L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Mamelodi Sundowns to win — Sunday, 3rd May 2026
Best Odds 1.30
Confidence 61%
Implied Prob 76.9%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Mamelodi Sundowns to win
1.30
Under 2.5 Goals75% BTTS — No70% Mamelodi Sundowns Clean Sheet60%
Implied Prob
76.9%
Based on 1.30 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-15.9%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
7
Mamelodi Sundowns
2
Draws
1
Polokwane
10
Meetings
10%
BTTS Rate
20%
Over 2.5
1.7
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Mamelodi Sundowns won 7 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Mamelodi Sundowns
Metric
Polokwane
1.5
Goals For / Game
0.7
0.5
Goals Against / Game
0.6
60%
Clean Sheet %
50%
7-2-1
W — D — L
3-4-3
Win Rate Comparison
70%
30%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
M0
0-0 19.2%
0-1 11.5%
0-2 3.5%
0-3 0.7%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
M1
1-0 20.2%
1-1 12.1%
1-2 3.6%
1-3 0.7%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
M2
2-0 10.6%
2-1 6.4%
2-2 1.9%
2-3 0.4%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
M3
3-0 3.7%
3-1 2.2%
3-2 0.7%
3-3 0.1%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
M4
4-0 1.0%
4-1 0.6%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
M5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (20.2%) 2-0 (10.6%) 2-1 (6.4%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · M=Home goals ↓   P=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Mamelodi Sundowns Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Polokwane Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Mamelodi Sundowns
Overall
7.6
Scoring
5.0
Defence
8.3
Polokwane
Overall
4.2
Scoring
2.3
Defence
8.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 16%
Home Win & BTTS No 38%
Draw & BTTS Yes 7%
Draw & BTTS No 16%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Away Win & BTTS No 16%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 14%
Home Win & Under 2.5 41%
Draw & Over 2.5 6%
Draw & Under 2.5 17%
Away Win & Over 2.5 6%
Away Win & Under 2.5 17%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
29.04.26PS
Polokwane0
Mamelodi Sundowns1
06.11.24PS
Mamelodi Sundowns2
Polokwane0
27.10.24PS
Polokwane1
Mamelodi Sundowns0
11.08.24MTN
Mamelodi Sundowns1
Polokwane (aet)0
30.12.23PS
Mamelodi Sundowns0
Polokwane0
30.08.23PS
Polokwane0
Mamelodi Sundowns2
10.03.21NC
Mamelodi Sundowns4
Polokwane0
02.09.20PS
Polokwane0
Mamelodi Sundowns3
21.12.19PS
Mamelodi Sundowns1
Polokwane0
19.02.19PS
Mamelodi Sundowns1
Polokwane1
Recent Form
Mamelodi Sundowns
29.04.26PS
Polokwane0
Mamelodi Sundowns1
W
26.04.26PS
Richards Bay0
Mamelodi Sundowns0
D
22.04.26PS
Mamelodi Sundowns1
Stellenbosch1
D
18.04.26CL
Mamelodi Sundowns1
Esperance Tunis0
W
12.04.26CL
Esperance Tunis0
Mamelodi Sundowns1
W
07.04.26PS
Durban City0
Mamelodi Sundowns1
W
03.04.26PS
Mamelodi Sundowns4
Chippa Utd.1
W
22.03.26CL
Stade Malien2
Mamelodi Sundowns0
L
17.03.26PS
Mamelodi Sundowns3
Marumo Gallants1
W
13.03.26CL
Mamelodi Sundowns3
Stade Malien0
W
Polokwane
29.04.26PS
Polokwane0
Mamelodi Sundowns1
L
26.04.26PS
Polokwane1
Stellenbosch0
W
18.04.26PS
Polokwane0
Kaizer Chiefs0
D
11.04.26PS
Chippa Utd.1
Polokwane1
D
08.04.26PS
TS Galaxy1
Polokwane2
W
21.03.26PS
Polokwane0
AmaZulu1
L
14.03.26PS
Sekhukhune0
Polokwane0
D
04.03.26PS
Polokwane1
Orlando Pirates2
L
27.02.26PS
Magesi0
Polokwane2
W
14.02.26PS
Polokwane0
Siwelele0
D
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Sunday, 3rd May 2026, Mamelodi Sundowns host Polokwane in South Africa Premiership. We recommend Mamelodi Sundowns to win as the standout selection.

Mamelodi Sundowns arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Polokwane are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 4D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Mamelodi Sundowns, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Polokwane's 1, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 10% of those meetings.

Our verdict: mamelodi sundowns to win at odds of 1.30 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this South Africa Premiership game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.30 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Polokwane?
Our selection is 1 — Mamelodi Sundowns to win, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 61%.
What is Mamelodi Sundowns's current form?
Mamelodi Sundowns have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Polokwane been performing recently?
Polokwane have recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Mamelodi Sundowns lead with 7 wins versus Polokwane's 1, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 10%.
Scroll to Top
18+Gambling can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.