WON
Result: Lyon 0-2 Celta Vigo
DirectWinPredict UEFA Europa League Lyon vs Celta Vigo
L

Lyon

Home Side
D D D L L
4W 3D 3L
VS
0-2
UEFA Europa League
C
Celta Vigo
Away Side
D D L W W
4W 4D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals — Thursday, 19th March 2026
Best Odds 1.28
Confidence 83%
Implied Prob 78.1%
Head to Head Record
0
Lyon
1
Draws
1
Celta Vigo
2
Meetings
50%
BTTS Rate
0%
Over 2.5
1.5
Avg Goals
Neutral Data Over 1.5 in 50% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Lyon
Metric
Celta Vigo
1.3
Goals For / Game
1.3
1.1
Goals Against / Game
1
50%
Clean Sheet %
30%
4-3-3
W — D — L
4-4-2
Win Rate Comparison
40%
40%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
L0
0-0 9.5%
0-1 11.4%
0-2 6.9%
0-3 2.8%
0-4 0.8%
0-5 0.2%
L1
1-0 11.0%
1-1 13.2%
1-2 7.9%
1-3 3.2%
1-4 1.0%
1-5 0.2%
L2
2-0 6.3%
2-1 7.6%
2-2 4.5%
2-3 1.8%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
L3
3-0 2.4%
3-1 2.9%
3-2 1.7%
3-3 0.7%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.1%
L4
4-0 0.7%
4-1 0.8%
4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
L5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-1 (13.2%) 0-1 (11.4%) 1-0 (11.0%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · L=Home goals ↓   C=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Lyon
Overall
4.9
Scoring
4.3
Defence
6.3
Celta Vigo
Overall
5.2
Scoring
4.3
Defence
6.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 21%
Home Win & BTTS No 14%
Draw & BTTS Yes 18%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 21%
Away Win & BTTS No 14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 14%
Home Win & Under 2.5 21%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 18%
Away Win & Over 2.5 14%
Away Win & Under 2.5 21%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
12.03.26
EL: Celta Vigo1
Lyon1
29.07.23
CF: Celta Vigo1
Lyon0
Recent Form
Lyon
15.03.26
L1: Le Havre0
Lyon0
D
12.03.26
EL: Celta Vigo1
Lyon1
D
08.03.26
L1: Lyon1
Paris FC1
D
05.03.26
CDF: Lyon2
Lens3
L
01.03.26
L1: Marseille3
Lyon2
L
22.02.26
L1: Strasbourg3
Lyon1
L
15.02.26
L1: Lyon2
Nice0
W
07.02.26
L1: Nantes0
Lyon1
W
04.02.26
CDF: Lyon2
Laval0
W
01.02.26
L1: Lyon1
Lille0
W
Celta Vigo
15.03.26
LL: Betis1
Celta Vigo1
D
12.03.26
EL: Celta Vigo1
Lyon1
D
06.03.26
LL: Celta Vigo1
Real Madrid2
L
01.03.26
LL: Girona1
Celta Vigo2
W
26.02.26
EL: Celta Vigo1
PAOK0
W
22.02.26
LL: Celta Vigo2
Mallorca0
W
19.02.26
EL: PAOK1
Celta Vigo2
W
14.02.26
LL: Espanyol2
Celta Vigo2
D
06.02.26
LL: Celta Vigo1
Osasuna2
L
01.02.26
LL: Getafe0
Celta Vigo0
D
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this UEFA Europa League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer. Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today. It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page. The standout choice for us is Over 1.5, and it looks even better when you see the 1.28 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Lyon vs Celta Vigo?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 83%.
What is Lyon's current form?
Lyon have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Celta Vigo been performing recently?
Celta Vigo have recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Lyon lead with 0 wins versus Celta Vigo's 1, with 1 draws across 2 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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