WON
Result: Latvia 1-0 Gibraltar
DirectWinPredict UEFA Nations League Latvia vs Gibraltar
L

Latvia

Home Side
W L D L D
1W 4D 5L
VS
1-0
UEFA Nations League
G
Gibraltar
Away Side
L L L L L
0W 0D 10L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Latvia to win — Tuesday, 31st March 2026
Best Odds 1.26
Confidence 46%
Implied Prob 79.4%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Latvia to win
1.26
BTTS — No75%
Implied Prob
79.4%
Based on 1.26 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-33.4%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
4
Latvia
0
Draws
1
Gibraltar
5
Meetings
40%
BTTS Rate
60%
Over 2.5
3
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Latvia won 4 of the last 5 meetings (0 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Latvia
Metric
Gibraltar
0.5
Goals For / Game
0.2
1.5
Goals Against / Game
2.9
30%
Clean Sheet %
0%
1-4-5
W — D — L
0-0-10
Win Rate Comparison
10%
0%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
G0
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
L0
0-0 7.8%
0-1 6.6%
0-2 2.8%
0-3 0.8%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
L1
1-0 13.3%
1-1 11.3%
1-2 4.8%
1-3 1.4%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
L2
2-0 11.3%
2-1 9.6%
2-2 4.1%
2-3 1.2%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.0%
L3
3-0 6.4%
3-1 5.4%
3-2 2.3%
3-3 0.7%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
L4
4-0 2.7%
4-1 2.3%
4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
L5
5-0 0.9%
5-1 0.8%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (13.3%) 2-0 (11.3%) 2-1 (9.6%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · L=Home goals ↓   G=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Latvia Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Gibraltar Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Latvia
Overall
2.2
Scoring
1.7
Defence
5.0
Gibraltar
Overall
0.0
Scoring
0.7
Defence
0.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 8%
Home Win & BTTS No 25%
Draw & BTTS Yes 17%
Draw & BTTS No 50%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 17%
Home Win & Under 2.5 17%
Draw & Over 2.5 34%
Draw & Under 2.5 34%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
26.03.26
UNL: Gibraltar0
Latvia1
16.11.21
WCQ: Gibraltar1
Latvia3
01.09.21
WCQ: Latvia3
Gibraltar1
25.03.18
FI: Gibraltar1
Latvia0
29.03.16
FI: Gibraltar0
Latvia5
Recent Form
Latvia
26.03.26
UNL: Gibraltar0
Latvia1
W
16.11.25
WCQ: Serbia2
Latvia1
L
13.11.25
FI: North Macedonia0
Latvia0
D
14.10.25
WCQ: Latvia0
England5
L
11.10.25
WCQ: Latvia2
Andorra2
D
09.09.25
WCQ: Albania1
Latvia0
L
06.09.25
WCQ: Latvia0
Serbia1
L
10.06.25
WCQ: Latvia1
Albania1
D
07.06.25
FI: Latvia0
Azerbaijan0
D
24.03.25
WCQ: England3
Latvia0
L
Gibraltar
26.03.26
UNL: Gibraltar0
Latvia1
L
17.11.25
WCQ: Czech Republic6
Gibraltar0
L
14.11.25
WCQ: Gibraltar1
Montenegro2
L
12.10.25
WCQ: Croatia3
Gibraltar0
L
08.10.25
FI: Gibraltar0
New Caledonia2
L
08.09.25
WCQ: Gibraltar0
Faroe Islands1
L
04.09.25
FI: Gibraltar0
Albania1
L
09.06.25
WCQ: Faroe Islands2
Gibraltar1
L
06.06.25
WCQ: Gibraltar0
Croatia7
L
25.03.25
WCQ: Gibraltar0
Czech Republic4
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Tuesday, 31st March 2026, Latvia host Gibraltar in UEFA Nations League. We recommend Latvia to win as the standout selection.

Latvia arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Gibraltar are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 0D 10L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Latvia, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Gibraltar's 1, with 0 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: latvia to win at odds of 1.26 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this UEFA Nations League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.26 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Latvia vs Gibraltar?
Our selection is 1 — Latvia to win, priced at approximately 1.26. Tip confidence rating: 46%.
What is Latvia's current form?
Latvia have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Gibraltar been performing recently?
Gibraltar have recorded 0 wins, 0 draws and 10 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Latvia lead with 4 wins versus Gibraltar's 1, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
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