WON
Result: Karvan 0-3 Neftci Baku
DirectWinPredict Azerbaijan 1 Liqa Karvan vs Neftci Baku
K

Karvan

Home Side
L W W L L
2W 2D 6L
VS
0-3
Azerbaijan 1 Liqa
N
Neftci Baku
Away Side
W L D W W
6W 2D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
2
Backing Neftci Baku to win — Tuesday, 5th May 2026
Best Odds 1.33
Confidence 58%
Implied Prob 75.2%
H
20%
D
30%
A
50%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
2 — Neftci Baku to win
1.33
Over 1.5 Goals80%
Implied Prob
75.2%
Based on 1.33 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-17.2%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
1
Karvan
2
Draws
7
Neftci Baku
10
Meetings
40%
BTTS Rate
30%
Over 2.5
1.7
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Neftci Baku won 7 of 10 meetings.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Karvan
Metric
Neftci Baku
0.8
Goals For / Game
2.3
1.8
Goals Against / Game
1.4
10%
Clean Sheet %
10%
2-2-6
W — D — L
6-2-2
Win Rate Comparison
20%
60%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
N0
N1
N2
N3
N4
N5
K0
0-0 4.3%
0-1 8.8%
0-2 9.0%
0-3 6.2%
0-4 3.2%
0-5 1.3%
K1
1-0 4.7%
1-1 9.7%
1-2 9.9%
1-3 6.8%
1-4 3.5%
1-5 1.4%
K2
2-0 2.6%
2-1 5.3%
2-2 5.5%
2-3 3.7%
2-4 1.9%
2-5 0.8%
K3
3-0 1.0%
3-1 2.0%
3-2 2.0%
3-3 1.4%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.3%
K4
4-0 0.3%
4-1 0.5%
4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
K5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-2 (9.9%) 0-2 (9.0%) 0-1 (8.8%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · K=Home goals ↓   N=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Karvan Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Neftci Baku Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Karvan
Overall
2.6
Scoring
2.7
Defence
4.0
Neftci Baku
Overall
6.6
Scoring
7.7
Defence
5.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Home Win & BTTS No 8%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 36%
Away Win & BTTS No 24%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 11%
Home Win & Under 2.5 9%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 33%
Away Win & Under 2.5 27%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
20.12.25PL
Karvan1
Neftci Baku2
27.09.25PL
Neftci Baku0
Karvan0
13.02.10PL
Karvan0
Neftci Baku1
01.11.09PL
Neftci Baku1
Karvan0
03.05.09PL
Karvan1
Neftci Baku1
15.11.08PL
Neftci Baku0
Karvan1
04.05.08PL
Karvan0
Neftci Baku1
03.11.07PL
Neftci Baku2
Karvan1
17.04.07PL
Karvan0
Neftci Baku1
27.10.06PL
Neftci Baku3
Karvan1
Recent Form
Karvan
27.04.26PL
Sabah Baku2
Karvan0
L
18.04.26PL
Karvan1
Shamakhi0
W
10.04.26PL
Karvan4
Kapaz1
W
06.04.26PL
Qarabag7
Karvan0
L
19.03.26PL
Karvan0
Zira1
L
13.03.26PL
Araz2
Karvan1
L
07.03.26PL
Karvan1
Sumqayit1
D
28.02.26PL
Gabala1
Karvan1
D
21.02.26PL
Karvan0
Araz2
L
14.02.26PL
Zira1
Karvan0
L
Neftci Baku
30.04.26PL
Neftci Baku2
Qarabag1
W
26.04.26PL
Neftci Baku1
Qarabag5
L
17.04.26PL
Zira1
Neftci Baku1
D
11.04.26PL
Neftci Baku2
Araz1
W
05.04.26PL
Sumqayit1
Neftci Baku3
W
20.03.26PL
Neftci Baku6
Imisli FK0
W
15.03.26PL
Gabala1
Neftci Baku3
W
09.03.26PL
Neftci Baku0
Turan Tovuz1
L
28.02.26PL
Shamakhi2
Neftci Baku2
D
15.02.26PL
Kapaz1
Neftci Baku3
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Tuesday, 5th May 2026, Karvan host Neftci Baku in Azerbaijan 1 Liqa. We recommend Neftci Baku to win as the standout selection.

Karvan arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Neftci Baku are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 2D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Karvan, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Neftci Baku's 7, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: neftci baku to win at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Azerbaijan 1 Liqa game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 2, and it looks even better when you see the @1.33 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Karvan vs Neftci Baku?
Our selection is 2 — Neftci Baku to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 58%.
What is Karvan's current form?
Karvan have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches.
How has Neftci Baku been performing recently?
Neftci Baku have recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Karvan lead with 1 wins versus Neftci Baku's 7, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
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