WON

Result: Benfica 4-1 Moreirense

Benfica

Home Side

W W D W W

6W 2D 2L

4-1

Portugal Liga

Moreirense

Away Side

W D L L L

2W 3D 5L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Benfica to win — Saturday, 25th April 2026

Best Odds 1.12

Confidence 53%

Implied Prob 89.3%

50%

30%

20%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — Benfica to win

1.12

Over 1.5 Goals80%

Implied Prob

89.3%

Based on 1.12 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-36.3%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Benfica

Draws

Moreirense

Meetings

60%

BTTS Rate

40%

Over 2.5

2.5

Avg Goals

Neutral Data Benfica won 5 of the last 10 meetings (5 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Benfica

Metric

Moreirense

1.8

Goals For / Game

0.7

0.9

Goals Against / Game

1.4

30%

Clean Sheet %

10%

6-2-2

W — D — L

2-3-5

Win Rate Comparison

60%

20%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 9.1%

0-1 7.3%

0-2 2.9%

0-3 0.8%

0-4 0.2%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 14.5%

1-1 11.6%

1-2 4.6%

1-3 1.2%

1-4 0.3%

1-5 0.0%

2-0 11.6%

2-1 9.3%

2-2 3.7%

2-3 1.0%

2-4 0.2%

2-5 0.0%

3-0 6.2%

3-1 5.0%

3-2 2.0%

3-3 0.5%

3-4 0.1%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 2.5%

4-1 2.0%

4-2 0.8%

4-3 0.2%

4-4 0.0%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.8%

5-1 0.6%

5-2 0.3%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (14.5%) 2-0 (11.6%) 2-1 (9.3%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · B=Home goals ↓ M=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Benfica Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Moreirense Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Benfica

Overall

6.6 ▼

Scoring

6.0 ▼

Defence

7.0 ▼

Moreirense

Overall

2.9 —

Scoring

2.3 —

Defence

5.3 —

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 31%

Home Win & BTTS No 26%

Draw & BTTS Yes 13%

Draw & BTTS No 11%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%

Away Win & BTTS No 9%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 31%

Home Win & Under 2.5 26%

Draw & Over 2.5 13%

Draw & Under 2.5 11%

Away Win & Over 2.5 10%

Away Win & Under 2.5 9%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

14.12.25LP

Moreirense0

Benfica4

08.02.25LP

Benfica3

Moreirense2

30.08.24LP

Moreirense1

Benfica1

14.04.24LP

Benfica3

Moreirense0

03.12.23LP

Moreirense0

Benfica0

17.12.22CUP

Moreirense1

Benfica1

15.01.22LP

Benfica1

Moreirense1

07.08.21LP

Moreirense1

Benfica2

14.02.21LP

Moreirense1

Benfica1

26.09.20LP

Benfica2

Moreirense0

Recent Form

Benfica

19.04.26LP

Sporting CP1

Benfica2

12.04.26LP

Benfica2

Nacional0

06.04.26LP

Casa Pia1

Benfica1

21.03.26LP

Benfica3

Vitoria Guimaraes0

14.03.26LP

Arouca1

Benfica2

08.03.26LP

Benfica2

FC Porto2

02.03.26LP

Gil Vicente1

Benfica2

25.02.26CL

Real Madrid2

Benfica1

21.02.26LP

Benfica3

AFS0

17.02.26CL

Benfica0

Real Madrid1

Moreirense

20.04.26LP

Moreirense1

Estoril0

10.04.26LP

Famalicao1

Moreirense1

04.04.26LP

Moreirense0

Braga1

21.03.26LP

Moreirense0

Arouca1

15.03.26LP

FC Porto3

Moreirense0

07.03.26LP

Moreirense1

Nacional1

01.03.26LP

Casa Pia1

Moreirense1

21.02.26LP

Moreirense0

Sporting CP3

16.02.26LP

Rio Ave1

Moreirense2

07.02.26LP

Moreirense1

Gil Vicente2

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Portugal Liga game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.12 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Benfica vs Moreirense?

Our selection is 1 — Benfica to win, priced at approximately 1.12. Tip confidence rating: 53%.

What is Benfica's current form?

Benfica have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.

How has Moreirense been performing recently?

Moreirense have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Benfica lead with 5 wins versus Moreirense's 0, with 5 draws across 10 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.

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