PENDING
Result: Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
DirectWinPredict World Cup 2026 Belgium vs Senegal
B

Belgium

Home Side
W D D W W
6W 4D 0L
VS
9:00 pm
World Cup 2026
S
Senegal
Away Side
W L L D L
5W 1D 4L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals — Wednesday, 7th January 2026
Best Odds 1.30
Confidence 86%
Implied Prob 76.9%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.30
Over 1.5 Goals80%
Implied Prob
76.9%
Based on 1.30 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+9.1%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
39.3%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
Neutral Data No head-to-head data on record.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Belgium
Metric
Senegal
3.1
Goals For / Game
1.7
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.3
40%
Clean Sheet %
50%
6-4-0
W — D — L
5-1-4
Win Rate Comparison
60%
50%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
B0
0-0 3.2%
0-1 4.0%
0-2 2.5%
0-3 1.0%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
B1
1-0 7.0%
1-1 8.7%
1-2 5.5%
1-3 2.3%
1-4 0.7%
1-5 0.2%
B2
2-0 7.7%
2-1 9.6%
2-2 6.0%
2-3 2.5%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.2%
B3
3-0 5.6%
3-1 7.0%
3-2 4.4%
3-3 1.8%
3-4 0.6%
3-5 0.1%
B4
4-0 3.1%
4-1 3.9%
4-2 2.4%
4-3 1.0%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
B5
5-0 1.4%
5-1 1.7%
5-2 1.1%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.6%) 1-1 (8.7%) 2-0 (7.7%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · B=Home goals ↓   S=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Belgium
Overall
7.2
Scoring
10.0
Defence
7.3
Senegal
Overall
5.3
Scoring
5.7
Defence
5.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 22%
Home Win & BTTS No 22%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Away Win & BTTS No 19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 24%
Home Win & Under 2.5 20%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 20%
Away Win & Under 2.5 17%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head

No data found.

Recent Form
Belgium
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D
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D
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W
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D
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Belgium5
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Liechtenstein0
W
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Kazakhstan1
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D
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Wales2
Belgium4
W
Senegal
26.06.26WC
Senegal5
Iraq0
W
23.06.26WC
Norway3
Senegal2
L
16.06.26WC
France3
Senegal1
L
10.06.26FI
Saudi Arabia0
Senegal0
D
31.05.26FI
USA3
Senegal2
L
31.03.26FI
Senegal3
Gambia1
W
28.03.26FI
Senegal2
Peru0
W
18.01.26ACN
Senegal0
Morocco3
L
14.01.26ACN
Senegal1
Egypt0
W
09.01.26ACN
Mali0
Senegal1
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Wednesday, 7th January 2026, Belgium host Senegal at Lumen Field (Seattle, WA) in World Cup 2026. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.

Belgium arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 4 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Senegal are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 1D 4L across 10 matches.

Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.30 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this World Cup 2026 preview lives.

The home team strides in on 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Lumen Field (Seattle, WA), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is Over 1.5, priced at @1.30, which the numbers settle at around 90%. The whistle goes at 9:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Belgium vs Senegal?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 86%.
What is Belgium's current form?
Belgium have won 6, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Senegal been performing recently?
Senegal have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
No recent head-to-head data available.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game.
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