PENDING
Result: 1 — Beijing Guoan to win
DirectWinPredict China Super League Beijing Guoan vs Liaoning Tieren
B

Beijing Guoan

Home Side
W W W W L
6W 3D 1L
VS
12:35 pm
China Super League
L
Liaoning Tieren
Away Side
W L L W W
4W 1D 5L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Beijing Guoan to win — Friday, 17th July 2026
Best Odds 1.43
Confidence 45%
Implied Prob 69.9%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Beijing Guoan to win
1.43
Over 2.5 Goals75% Over 1.5 Goals85%
Implied Prob
69.9%
Based on 1.43 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-24.9%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
0
Beijing Guoan
0
Draws
1
Liaoning Tieren
1
Meetings
100%
BTTS Rate
100%
Over 2.5
3
Avg Goals
Against Pick Beijing Guoan won 0 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Beijing Guoan
Metric
Liaoning Tieren
2.2
Goals For / Game
1.7
1.3
Goals Against / Game
1.9
30%
Clean Sheet %
10%
6-3-1
W — D — L
4-1-5
Win Rate Comparison
60%
40%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
L0
L1
L2
L3
L4
L5
B0
0-0 2.9%
0-1 4.3%
0-2 3.2%
0-3 1.6%
0-4 0.6%
0-5 0.2%
B1
1-0 5.9%
1-1 8.8%
1-2 6.6%
1-3 3.3%
1-4 1.2%
1-5 0.4%
B2
2-0 6.0%
2-1 9.1%
2-2 6.8%
2-3 3.4%
2-4 1.3%
2-5 0.4%
B3
3-0 4.1%
3-1 6.2%
3-2 4.6%
3-3 2.3%
3-4 0.9%
3-5 0.3%
B4
4-0 2.1%
4-1 3.2%
4-2 2.4%
4-3 1.2%
4-4 0.5%
4-5 0.1%
B5
5-0 0.9%
5-1 1.3%
5-2 1.0%
5-3 0.5%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.1%) 3-1 (6.2%) 2-0 (6.0%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · B=Home goals ↓   L=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Beijing Guoan Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Liaoning Tieren Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Beijing Guoan
Overall
6.9
Scoring
7.3
Defence
5.7
Liaoning Tieren
Overall
4.3
Scoring
5.7
Defence
3.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 33%
Home Win & BTTS No 18%
Draw & BTTS Yes 11%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 21%
Away Win & BTTS No 12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 38%
Home Win & Under 2.5 13%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 4%
Away Win & Over 2.5 25%
Away Win & Under 2.5 8%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
04.04.26SL
Liaoning Tieren2
Beijing Guoan1
Recent Form
Beijing Guoan
04.07.26SL
Beijing Guoan2
Shandong Taishan0
W
27.06.26SL
Beijing Guoan1
Wuhan Three Towns0
W
19.06.26FAC
Guangdong GZ-Power1
Beijing Guoan2
W
30.05.26SL
Chongqing Tonglianglong2
Beijing Guoan3
W
23.05.26SL
Beijing Guoan1
Henan Songshan Longmen2
L
19.05.26SL
Qingdao West Coast1
Beijing Guoan1
D
15.05.26SL
Beijing Guoan4
Qingdao Hainiu2
W
10.05.26SL
Beijing Guoan2
Shanghai Port2
D
06.05.26SL
Beijing Guoan3
Dalian Yingbo0
W
02.05.26SL
Yunnan Yukun3
Beijing Guoan3
D
Liaoning Tieren
04.07.26SL
Liaoning Tieren3
Chongqing Tonglianglong1
W
27.06.26SL
Liaoning Tieren1
Shandong Taishan5
L
19.06.26FAC
Dalian Kewei1
Liaoning Tieren0
L
29.05.26SL
Liaoning Tieren3
Shanghai Port2
W
24.05.26SL
Zhejiang Professional0
Liaoning Tieren5
W
20.05.26SL
Liaoning Tieren2
Qingdao Hainiu1
W
16.05.26SL
Wuhan Three Towns2
Liaoning Tieren2
D
10.05.26SL
Liaoning Tieren1
Yunnan Yukun2
L
05.05.26SL
Liaoning Tieren0
Chengdu Rongcheng1
L
01.05.26SL
Henan Songshan Longmen4
Liaoning Tieren0
L
Beijing Guoan (Home)
04.07.26SL
Beijing Guoan2
Shandong Taishan0
W
27.06.26SL
Beijing Guoan1
Wuhan Three Towns0
W
23.05.26SL
Beijing Guoan1
Henan Songshan Longmen2
L
15.05.26SL
Beijing Guoan4
Qingdao Hainiu2
W
10.05.26SL
Beijing Guoan2
Shanghai Port2
D
06.05.26SL
Beijing Guoan3
Dalian Yingbo0
W
25.04.26SL
Beijing Guoan2
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger4
L
12.04.26SL
Beijing Guoan1
Chengdu Rongcheng2
L
21.03.26SL
Beijing Guoan1
Shanghai Shenhua1
D
11.12.25CL2
Beijing Guoan1
Macarthur FC2
L
Liaoning Tieren (Away)
19.06.26FAC
Dalian Kewei1
Liaoning Tieren0
L
24.05.26SL
Zhejiang Professional0
Liaoning Tieren5
W
16.05.26SL
Wuhan Three Towns2
Liaoning Tieren2
D
01.05.26SL
Henan Songshan Longmen4
Liaoning Tieren0
L
26.04.26SL
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1
Liaoning Tieren0
L
18.04.26SL
Shanghai Shenhua3
Liaoning Tieren1
L
11.04.26SL
Qingdao West Coast1
Liaoning Tieren1
D
14.03.26SL
Chongqing Tonglianglong1
Liaoning Tieren0
L
07.03.26SL
Shandong Taishan3
Liaoning Tieren0
L
01.11.25L1
Nanjing City1
Liaoning Tieren1
D
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Friday, 17th July 2026, Beijing Guoan host Liaoning Tieren at Workers' Stadium (Beijing) in China Super League. We recommend Beijing Guoan to win as the standout selection.

Beijing Guoan arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Liaoning Tieren are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 1D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Beijing Guoan, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Liaoning Tieren's 1, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: beijing guoan to win at odds of 1.43 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this China Super League preview lives.

The home team strides in on 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Workers’ Stadium (Beijing), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1, priced at @1.43, which the numbers settle at around 50,30,20%. The whistle goes at 12:35 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Beijing Guoan vs Liaoning Tieren?
Our selection is 1 — Beijing Guoan to win, priced at approximately 1.43. Tip confidence rating: 45%.
What is Beijing Guoan's current form?
Beijing Guoan have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Liaoning Tieren been performing recently?
Liaoning Tieren have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Beijing Guoan lead with 0 wins versus Liaoning Tieren's 1, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
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