WON
Result:
AZ Alkmaar 4-0 Heracles
A
AZ Alkmaar
Home Side
W
L
W
L
W
3W 0D 2L
VS
4-0
H
Heracles
Away Side
D
L
L
L
L
0W 1D 4L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing AZ Alkmaar to win — Sunday, 15th March 2026
Best Odds
1.40
Confidence
50%
Implied Prob
71.4%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — AZ Alkmaar to win
1.40
Over 2.5 Goals70%
Over 1.5 Goals80%
Implied Prob
71.4%
Based on 1.40 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-21.4%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head
Record
2
AZ Alkmaar
1
Draws
2
Heracles
5
Meetings
40%
BTTS Rate
60%
Over 2.5
2.8
Avg Goals
Against Pick
AZ Alkmaar won 2 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).
Key Stats Duel
Comparison
AZ Alkmaar
Metric
Heracles
1.8
Goals For / Game
0.4
1.2
Goals Against / Game
2.4
20%
Clean Sheet %
20%
3-0-2
W — D — L
0-1-4
Win Rate Comparison
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
H0
H1
H2
H3
H4
H5
A0
0-0
5.5%
0-1
4.4%
0-2
1.8%
0-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
0-5
0.0%
A1
1-0
11.6%
1-1
9.2%
1-2
3.7%
1-3
1.0%
1-4
0.2%
1-5
0.0%
A2
2-0
12.1%
2-1
9.7%
2-2
3.9%
2-3
1.0%
2-4
0.2%
2-5
0.0%
A3
3-0
8.5%
3-1
6.8%
3-2
2.7%
3-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
3-5
0.0%
A4
4-0
4.5%
4-1
3.6%
4-2
1.4%
4-3
0.4%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
A5
5-0
1.9%
5-1
1.5%
5-2
0.6%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Predicted Scores
2-0 (12.1%)
1-0 (11.6%)
2-1 (9.7%)
■ Most likely (tip)
■ Possible (tip)
■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip
Poisson model · A=Home goals ↓ H=Away goals →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
AZ Alkmaar Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Heracles Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
43%
Home Win & BTTS No
43%
Draw & BTTS Yes
7%
Draw & BTTS No
7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
0%
Away Win & BTTS No
0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
60%
Home Win & Under 2.5
26%
Draw & Over 2.5
10%
Draw & Under 2.5
4%
Away Win & Over 2.5
0%
Away Win & Under 2.5
0%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake Amount
—
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
Match Archives
History Log
Head to Head
ERE: Heracles1
AZ Alkmaar2
ERE: Heracles1
AZ Alkmaar0
KNVB: Heracles2
AZ Alkmaar2
ERE: AZ Alkmaar1
Heracles0
ERE: Heracles5
AZ Alkmaar0
Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar
UCL: AZ Alkmaar2
Sparta Prague1
ERE: PSV Eindhoven2
AZ Alkmaar1
KNVB: AZ Alkmaar2
Telstar1
ERE: FC Utrecht2
AZ Alkmaar0
UCL: AZ Alkmaar4
FC Noah0
Heracles
ERE: Heracles0
FC Utrecht0
ERE: Heracles1
PSV Eindhoven3
ERE: Go Ahead Eagles4
Heracles0
ERE: Heracles0
NAC Breda1
ERE: NEC Nijmegen4
Heracles1
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
Our selection is 1 — AZ Alkmaar to win, priced at approximately 1.40. Tip confidence rating: 50%.
What is AZ Alkmaar's current form?
AZ Alkmaar have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.
How has Heracles been performing recently?
Heracles have recorded 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
AZ Alkmaar lead with 2 wins versus Heracles's 2, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.