WON
Result: Al Talaba 2-1 Baghdad
DirectWinPredict Iraq Stars League Al Talaba vs Baghdad
A

Al Talaba

Home Side
D W W W L
6W 3D 1L
VS
2-1
Iraq Stars League
B
Baghdad
Away Side
L L L L L
0W 2D 8L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Al Talaba to win — Wednesday, 25th March 2026
Best Odds 1.38
Confidence 56%
Implied Prob 72.5%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Al Talaba to win
1.38
Over 1.5 Goals90%
Implied Prob
72.5%
Based on 1.38 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-16.5%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
6
Al Talaba
2
Draws
2
Baghdad
10
Meetings
40%
BTTS Rate
50%
Over 2.5
2.4
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Al Talaba won 6 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Al Talaba
Metric
Baghdad
1.8
Goals For / Game
0.9
0.9
Goals Against / Game
2.3
40%
Clean Sheet %
10%
6-3-1
W — D — L
0-2-8
Win Rate Comparison
60%
0%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
A0
0-0 5.2%
0-1 4.7%
0-2 2.1%
0-3 0.6%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
A1
1-0 10.7%
1-1 9.7%
1-2 4.4%
1-3 1.3%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
A2
2-0 11.0%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 4.5%
2-3 1.3%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 7.5%
3-1 6.8%
3-2 3.0%
3-3 0.9%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
A4
4-0 3.9%
4-1 3.5%
4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 1.6%
5-1 1.4%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-0 (11.0%) 1-0 (10.7%) 2-1 (9.9%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · A=Home goals ↓   B=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Al Talaba Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Baghdad Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Al Talaba
Overall
6.9
Scoring
6.0
Defence
7.0
Baghdad
Overall
0.6
Scoring
3.0
Defence
2.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 46%
Home Win & BTTS No 25%
Draw & BTTS Yes 19%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 39%
Home Win & Under 2.5 32%
Draw & Over 2.5 16%
Draw & Under 2.5 13%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
23.11.25
SL: Baghdad2
Al Talaba1
27.02.25
CUP: Al Talaba2
Baghdad0
05.05.24
SL: Al Talaba3
Baghdad2
22.02.24
SL: Baghdad0
Al Talaba2
29.06.22
SL: Al Talaba2
Baghdad2
16.01.22
SL: Baghdad0
Al Talaba1
09.03.21
SL: Al Talaba1
Baghdad2
23.11.20
SL: Baghdad0
Al Talaba1
26.04.19
SL: Al Talaba0
Baghdad0
20.10.18
SL: Baghdad0
Al Talaba3
Recent Form
Al Talaba
17.03.26
SL: Al Shorta3
Al Talaba3
D
12.03.26
SL: Al Kahraba1
Al Talaba2
W
06.03.26
SL: Al Talaba2
Al-Qassim0
W
28.02.26
SL: Naft Missan0
Al Talaba1
W
20.02.26
SL: Al Talaba1
Al Quwa Al Jawiya2
L
13.02.26
SL: Al Karkh0
Al Talaba2
W
05.02.26
SL: Al-Karma1
Al Talaba1
D
31.01.26
SL: Al Talaba3
Al Gharraf1
W
27.01.26
SL: Al Talaba1
Diyala1
D
23.01.26
SL: Erbil0
Al Talaba2
W
Baghdad
21.03.26
SL: Al Zawraa3
Amanat Baghdad2
L
17.03.26
SL: Al Quwa Al Jawiya3
Amanat Baghdad1
L
12.03.26
SL: Amanat Baghdad0
Newroz2
L
06.03.26
SL: Naft Missan2
Amanat Baghdad1
L
01.03.26
SL: Amanat Baghdad1
Al Naft2
L
22.02.26
SL: Al Kahraba5
Amanat Baghdad0
L
06.02.26
SL: Amanat Baghdad0
Al Minaa0
D
31.01.26
SL: Amanat Baghdad1
Erbil1
D
26.01.26
SL: Al Gharraf3
Amanat Baghdad2
L
22.01.26
SL: Al-Karma2
Amanat Baghdad1
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Wednesday, 25th March 2026, Al Talaba host Baghdad in Iraq Stars League. We recommend Al Talaba to win as the standout selection.

Al Talaba arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Baghdad are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 2D 8L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Al Talaba, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Baghdad's 2, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: al talaba to win at odds of 1.38 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Iraq Stars League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.38 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Talaba vs Baghdad?
Our selection is 1 — Al Talaba to win, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 56%.
What is Al Talaba's current form?
Al Talaba have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Baghdad been performing recently?
Baghdad have recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Talaba lead with 6 wins versus Baghdad's 2, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
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