PENDING
Result: 1 — Hercilio Luz to win
DirectWinPredict Brazil Catarinense 2 Hercilio Luz vs Gremio Juventus
H

Hercilio Luz

Home Side
W W W W W
8W 1D 1L
VS
11:30 pm
Brazil Catarinense 2
G
Gremio Juventus
Away Side
W D W L L
3W 1D 6L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Hercilio Luz to win — Wednesday, 15th July 2026
Best Odds 1.24
Confidence 55%
Implied Prob 80.6%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Hercilio Luz to win
1.24
Under 2.5 Goals65% BTTS — No70%
Implied Prob
80.6%
Based on 1.24 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-25.6%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
2
Hercilio Luz
1
Draws
3
Gremio Juventus
6
Meetings
50%
BTTS Rate
33%
Over 2.5
2.2
Avg Goals
Against Pick Hercilio Luz won 2 of the last 6 meetings (1 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Hercilio Luz
Metric
Gremio Juventus
2
Goals For / Game
1.1
0.7
Goals Against / Game
1.2
50%
Clean Sheet %
20%
8-1-1
W — D — L
3-1-6
Win Rate Comparison
80%
30%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
G0
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
H0
0-0 8.2%
0-1 7.4%
0-2 3.3%
0-3 1.0%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
H1
1-0 13.1%
1-1 11.8%
1-2 5.3%
1-3 1.6%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
H2
2-0 10.5%
2-1 9.5%
2-2 4.3%
2-3 1.3%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
H3
3-0 5.6%
3-1 5.0%
3-2 2.3%
3-3 0.7%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
H4
4-0 2.2%
4-1 2.0%
4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
H5
5-0 0.7%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (13.1%) 2-0 (10.5%) 2-1 (9.5%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · H=Home goals ↓   G=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Hercilio Luz Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Gremio Juventus Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Hercilio Luz
Overall
8.3
Scoring
6.7
Defence
7.7
Gremio Juventus
Overall
3.3
Scoring
3.7
Defence
6.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Home Win & BTTS No 47%
Draw & BTTS Yes 2%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 8%
Away Win & BTTS No 18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 23%
Home Win & Under 2.5 44%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 16%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
24.05.26CAT2
Gremio Juventus0
Hercilio Luz1
23.01.22CAT
Hercilio Luz1
Gremio Juventus0
07.11.21CSC
Hercilio Luz1
Gremio Juventus2
04.11.21CSC
Gremio Juventus1
Hercilio Luz1
28.10.21CSC
Gremio Juventus3
Hercilio Luz1
03.03.21CAT
Gremio Juventus2
Hercilio Luz0
Recent Form
Hercilio Luz
12.07.26CAT2
Blumenau0
Hercilio Luz2
W
04.07.26CAT2
Guarani de Palhoca1
Hercilio Luz2
W
28.06.26CAT2
Hercilio Luz4
Fluminense-SC2
W
21.06.26CAT2
Hercilio Luz3
Metropolitano0
W
14.06.26CAT2
Jaragua-SC0
Hercilio Luz2
W
07.06.26CAT2
Hercilio Luz2
Nacao1
W
31.05.26CAT2
Caravaggio2
Hercilio Luz2
D
27.05.26CAT2
Hercilio Luz2
Tubarao0
W
24.05.26CAT2
Gremio Juventus0
Hercilio Luz1
W
13.05.26CAT2
Hercilio Luz0
Blumenau1
L
Gremio Juventus
12.07.26CAT2
Gremio Juventus1
Guarani de Palhoca0
W
08.07.26CAT2
Blumenau1
Gremio Juventus1
D
04.07.26CAT2
Gremio Juventus8
Jaragua-SC1
W
21.06.26CAT2
Gremio Juventus0
Tubarao2
L
17.06.26CAT2
Nacao1
Gremio Juventus0
L
07.06.26CAT2
Gremio Juventus0
Caravaggio3
L
30.05.26CAT2
Metropolitano2
Gremio Juventus0
L
28.05.26CAT2
Fluminense-SC0
Gremio Juventus1
W
24.05.26CAT2
Gremio Juventus0
Hercilio Luz1
L
16.05.26CAT2
Guarani de Palhoca1
Gremio Juventus0
L
Hercilio Luz (Home)
28.06.26CAT2
Hercilio Luz4
Fluminense-SC2
W
21.06.26CAT2
Hercilio Luz3
Metropolitano0
W
07.06.26CAT2
Hercilio Luz2
Nacao1
W
27.05.26CAT2
Hercilio Luz2
Tubarao0
W
13.05.26CAT2
Hercilio Luz0
Blumenau1
L
10.05.26CAT2
Hercilio Luz6
Guarani de Palhoca0
W
28.04.26CAT2
Hercilio Luz4
Jaragua-SC1
W
20.02.25CAT
Hercilio Luz0
Criciuma1
L
16.02.25CAT
Hercilio Luz2
Chapecoense-SC2
D
14.02.25CAT
Hercilio Luz2
Joinville1
W
Gremio Juventus (Away)
08.07.26CAT2
Blumenau1
Gremio Juventus1
D
17.06.26CAT2
Nacao1
Gremio Juventus0
L
30.05.26CAT2
Metropolitano2
Gremio Juventus0
L
28.05.26CAT2
Fluminense-SC0
Gremio Juventus1
W
16.05.26CAT2
Guarani de Palhoca1
Gremio Juventus0
L
10.05.26CAT2
Jaragua-SC0
Gremio Juventus1
W
01.05.26CAT2
Tubarao4
Gremio Juventus0
L
30.07.25CAT2
Camboriu1
Gremio Juventus1
D
05.07.25CAT2
Blumenau1
Gremio Juventus0
L
29.06.25CAT2
Nacao0
Gremio Juventus0
D
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Wednesday, 15th July 2026, Hercilio Luz host Gremio Juventus at N/A in Brazil Catarinense 2. We recommend Hercilio Luz to win as the standout selection.

Hercilio Luz arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Gremio Juventus are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 1D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Hercilio Luz, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Gremio Juventus's 3, with 1 draws from 6 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: hercilio luz to win at odds of 1.24 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Brazil Catarinense 2 preview lives.

The home team strides in on 5 wins from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at N/A, and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1, priced at @1.24, which the numbers settle at around 50,30,20%. The whistle goes at 11:30 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Hercilio Luz vs Gremio Juventus?
Our selection is 1 — Hercilio Luz to win, priced at approximately 1.24. Tip confidence rating: 55%.
What is Hercilio Luz's current form?
Hercilio Luz have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Gremio Juventus been performing recently?
Gremio Juventus have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Hercilio Luz lead with 2 wins versus Gremio Juventus's 3, with 1 draws across 6 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
Scroll to Top
18+Gambling can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.