PENDING
Result: Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
DirectWinPredict Club Friendly Lyon vs Servette
L

Lyon

Home Side
W W L L W
6W 1D 3L
VS
5:30 pm
Club Friendly
S
Servette
Away Side
L W D W W
6W 3D 1L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals — Wednesday, 15th July 2026
Best Odds 1.53
Confidence 77%
Implied Prob 65.4%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.53
Over 1.5 Goals95%
Implied Prob
65.4%
Based on 1.53 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+11.6%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
33.6%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
1
Lyon
0
Draws
1
Servette
2
Meetings
100%
BTTS Rate
100%
Over 2.5
3.5
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 2.5 in 100% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Lyon
Metric
Servette
2.4
Goals For / Game
2.2
1.8
Goals Against / Game
1
20%
Clean Sheet %
50%
6-1-3
W — D — L
6-3-1
Win Rate Comparison
60%
60%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
L0
0-0 2.5%
0-1 4.9%
0-2 4.9%
0-3 3.3%
0-4 1.7%
0-5 0.7%
L1
1-0 4.2%
1-1 8.4%
1-2 8.4%
1-3 5.6%
1-4 2.8%
1-5 1.1%
L2
2-0 3.6%
2-1 7.2%
2-2 7.2%
2-3 4.8%
2-4 2.4%
2-5 1.0%
L3
3-0 2.0%
3-1 4.1%
3-2 4.1%
3-3 2.7%
3-4 1.4%
3-5 0.5%
L4
4-0 0.9%
4-1 1.7%
4-2 1.7%
4-3 1.2%
4-4 0.6%
4-5 0.2%
L5
5-0 0.3%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Predicted Scores 1-1 (8.4%) 1-2 (8.4%) 2-1 (7.2%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · L=Home goals ↓   S=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Lyon
Overall
6.3
Scoring
8.0
Defence
4.0
Servette
Overall
6.9
Scoring
7.3
Defence
6.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Home Win & BTTS No 17%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Away Win & BTTS No 17%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 26%
Home Win & Under 2.5 17%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 26%
Away Win & Under 2.5 17%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
13.07.19CF
Lyon1
Servette2
07.07.10CF
Lyon3
Servette1
Recent Form
Lyon
11.07.26CF
Lyon6
St. Gallen3
W
08.07.26CF
Lyon5
Macon2
W
17.05.26L1
Lyon0
Lens4
L
10.05.26L1
Toulouse2
Lyon1
L
03.05.26L1
Lyon4
Rennes2
W
25.04.26L1
Lyon3
Auxerre2
W
19.04.26L1
PSG1
Lyon2
W
12.04.26L1
Lyon2
Lorient0
W
05.04.26L1
Angers0
Lyon0
D
22.03.26L1
Lyon1
Monaco2
L
Servette
11.07.26CF
Servette1
Etoile-Carouge2
L
08.07.26CF
Servette2
Lausanne Ouchy0
W
04.07.26CF
Servette1
Stade Nyonnais1
D
16.05.26SL
Zurich0
Servette2
W
12.05.26SL
Servette2
Lausanne0
W
09.05.26SL
Luzern3
Servette3
D
03.05.26SL
Grasshoppers0
Servette2
W
26.04.26SL
Servette5
Winterthur3
W
12.04.26SL
Young Boys1
Servette1
D
06.04.26SL
Servette3
Luzern0
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Wednesday, 15th July 2026, Lyon host Servette at N/A in Club Friendly. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Lyon arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Servette are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 3D 1L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Lyon, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Servette's 1, with 0 draws from 2 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.53 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Club Friendly preview lives.

The home team strides in on 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at N/A, and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is Over 2.5, priced at @1.53, which the numbers settle at around 80%. The whistle goes at 5:30 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Lyon vs Servette?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.53. Tip confidence rating: 77%.
What is Lyon's current form?
Lyon have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Servette been performing recently?
Servette have recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Lyon lead with 1 wins versus Servette's 1, with 0 draws across 2 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
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