Sure Wins For Today

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3rd Apr 2024

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Today's Tips Ranked

Mon 10 Aug 2026 • by win probability

High Conf.
RFS vs Grobina
Over 2.5 Latvia Virsliga @1.39 5:30 pm
90%
prob
High Conf.
Mura vs Radomlje
Over 1.5 Slovenia PRVA Liga @1.17 5:00 pm
90%
prob
High Conf.
Fakel Voronezh vs Akhmat Grozny
Over 1.5 Russia Premier League @1.32 5:30 pm
90%
prob
High Conf.
Jong AZ vs Eindhoven
Over 2.5 Eerste Divisie @1.40 7:00 pm
80%
prob
High Conf.
Jong PSV vs FC Volendam
Over 2.5 Eerste Divisie @1.52 7:00 pm
80%
prob
Solid Pick
Baerum Sportsklubb vs KFUM Oslo 2
1 Norway Div 3 G1 @1.21 6:00 pm
50%
prob
Solid Pick
Alashkert vs BKMA
1 Armenia Premier League @1.23 5:00 pm
50%
prob
Solid Pick
NSI Runavik vs Skala Itrottarfelag
1 Faroe Islands Premier League @1.39 7:00 pm
50%
prob

Tip Explainers

Click any question to see the data behind it

RFS vs Grobina Over 2.5
Our model assigns a win probability of 90% to this outcome. Historically, Over 2.5 tips have settled at 70.3% over the last 90 days (64 tips graded). In Latvia Virsliga, our record stands at 90.9% over the same period. This pick is priced at approximately @1.39. These factors together support the recommendation.
70.3% on Over 2.5 90% probability 90.9% in Latvia Virsliga
Over the last 90 days, Over 2.5 tips have returned 45 wins from 64 settled tips (70.3%). This is below our site-wide average of 77.5%. The recommendation is still made but with reduced confidence weighting.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker after publication may also signal late information entering the market.
Mura vs Radomlje Over 1.5
Our model assigns a win probability of 90% to this outcome. Historically, Over 1.5 tips have settled at 75% over the last 90 days (60 tips graded). This pick is priced at approximately @1.17. These factors together support the recommendation.
75% on Over 1.5 90% probability
Over the last 90 days, Over 1.5 tips have returned 45 wins from 60 settled tips (75%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 77.5%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker after publication may also signal late information entering the market.
Fakel Voronezh vs Akhmat Grozny Over 1.5
Our model assigns a win probability of 90% to this outcome. Historically, Over 1.5 tips have settled at 75% over the last 90 days (60 tips graded). This pick is priced at approximately @1.32. These factors together support the recommendation.
75% on Over 1.5 90% probability
Over the last 90 days, Over 1.5 tips have returned 45 wins from 60 settled tips (75%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 77.5%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker after publication may also signal late information entering the market.
Jong AZ vs Eindhoven Over 2.5
Our model assigns a win probability of 80% to this outcome. Historically, Over 2.5 tips have settled at 70.3% over the last 90 days (64 tips graded). This pick is priced at approximately @1.40. These factors together support the recommendation.
70.3% on Over 2.5 80% probability
Over the last 90 days, Over 2.5 tips have returned 45 wins from 64 settled tips (70.3%). This is below our site-wide average of 77.5%. The recommendation is still made but with reduced confidence weighting.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker after publication may also signal late information entering the market.
Jong PSV vs FC Volendam Over 2.5
Our model assigns a win probability of 80% to this outcome. Historically, Over 2.5 tips have settled at 70.3% over the last 90 days (64 tips graded). This pick is priced at approximately @1.52. These factors together support the recommendation.
70.3% on Over 2.5 80% probability
Over the last 90 days, Over 2.5 tips have returned 45 wins from 64 settled tips (70.3%). This is below our site-wide average of 77.5%. The recommendation is still made but with reduced confidence weighting.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker after publication may also signal late information entering the market.
Baerum Sportsklubb vs KFUM Oslo 2 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 76.4% over the last 90 days (288 tips graded). This pick is priced at approximately @1.21. These factors together support the recommendation.
76.4% on 1 50% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 220 wins from 288 settled tips (76.4%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 77.5%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker after publication may also signal late information entering the market.
Alashkert vs BKMA 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 76.4% over the last 90 days (288 tips graded). In Armenia Premier League, our record stands at 100% over the same period. This pick is priced at approximately @1.23. These factors together support the recommendation.
76.4% on 1 50% probability 100% in Armenia Premier League
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 220 wins from 288 settled tips (76.4%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 77.5%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker after publication may also signal late information entering the market.
NSI Runavik vs Skala Itrottarfelag 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 76.4% over the last 90 days (288 tips graded). In Faroe Islands Premier League, our record stands at 85.7% over the same period. This pick is priced at approximately @1.39. These factors together support the recommendation.
76.4% on 1 50% probability 85.7% in Faroe Islands Premier League
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 220 wins from 288 settled tips (76.4%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 77.5%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker after publication may also signal late information entering the market.

Market Consistency Tracker

Rolling 30-day windows over 90 days • steadiest markets first

A high win rate is only part of the picture. This tracker shows whether each market delivers consistently or in streaks.

1X avg 67.5% • range ±1.3%
Steady
66.7%
0-30d
66.7%
30-60d
69.2%
60-90d

Win rate has been consistent across all three rolling windows. Reliable market for planning.

1 avg 76.2% • range ±1.9%
Steady
74.7%
0-30d
75.5%
30-60d
78.4%
60-90d

Win rate has been consistent across all three rolling windows. Reliable market for planning.

2 avg 81% • range ±3.2%
Steady
83.3%
0-30d
82.8%
30-60d
76.9%
60-90d

Win rate has been consistent across all three rolling windows. Reliable market for planning.

Over 1.5 avg 76% • range ±6.1%
Variable
81.8%
0-30d
69.6%
30-60d
76.5%
60-90d

Some variation across rolling windows. Performance is directional but not uniform.

Over 2.5 avg 72.8% • range ±11.4%
Variable
84.2%
0-30d
72.7%
30-60d
61.5%
60-90d

Some variation across rolling windows. Performance is directional but not uniform.

Steady = <=12pp spread. Variable = 13-25pp. Volatile = >25pp. Min. 5 tips per window.


Latest Winnings

08/08/26 Lithuania TOPLYGA
Kauno Zalgiris vs Hegelmann
1
@1.24
2-0
08/08/26 Israel Toto Cup
Sakhnin vs Maccabi Haifa
2
@1.38
0-1
08/08/26 Kansallinen Liiga Women
Aland Utd W vs Ilves W
1
@1.38
3-0
08/08/26 Ireland N'League Women
Shelbourne W vs Peamount W
1
@1.29
2-0
06/08/26 Europa League Qualifier
Salzburg vs Pafos
1X
@1.14
1-0
06/08/26 Europa League Qualifier
Benfica vs Hearts
1
@1.15
6-1
06/08/26 Conference League Qualifier
Debrecen vs Copenhagen
Over 1.5
@1.23
0-3
06/08/26 Conference League Qualifier
Partizan vs Tobol
1
@1.32
3-0
06/08/26 Europa League Qualifier
Lech Poznan vs Klaksvik
1
@1.17
1-0
06/08/26 Conference League Qualifier
Lugano vs NSI Runavik
Over 2.5
@1.40
2-0

How We Pick Every Market

DirectWinPredict covers eight distinct markets. Here is the exact process behind how each fixture is evaluated across all of them.

1
Direct Result Focus
We start with the most fundamental question: who actually wins this match? Every other market is built outward from that core analysis.
2
Goal Threshold Mapping
Each team's scoring and conceding pattern is mapped against Over 1.5, 2.5, and 3.5 thresholds separately, since these behave very differently match to match.
3
Double Chance Logic
Where outright result confidence is moderate but not high, we assess whether a Double Chance angle offers a safer, still-valuable alternative.
4
BTTS Pattern Check
Both Teams To Score is evaluated independently of the match outcome prediction, since a one-sided win does not always mean only one team scores.
5
Draw Probability Scan
Draws are notoriously underpriced by casual bettors. We specifically flag fixtures where historical draw frequency exceeds the market's implied probability.
6
Final Market Selection
Only after all markets are individually scored do we select the strongest one to publish as the headline tip for that fixture.
⚠ No prediction is guaranteed across any market. All tips are based on statistical analysis. Please gamble responsibly.

Performance by Tip Type

7d30d90dAll
Over 2.5 84.2%
16W / 3L · ROI +19.6%
2 83.3%
15W / 3L · ROI +8.3%
Over 1.5 81.8%
18W / 4L · ROI -2.6%
1 74.7%
68W / 23L · ROI -5.1%
1X 66.7%
6W / 3L · ROI -24%

Market Comparison Matrix — Last 30 Days

7d30d90dAll

Win rate across every market we cover. Use this to see where our analysis is strongest right now.

Home Win
75%
92W / 30L
Draw
70%
7W / 3L
Away Win
84%
32W / 6L
Double Chance
67%
6W / 3L
Over 1.5
82%
18W / 4L
Over 2.5
84%
16W / 3L
Over 3.5
—
No data yet
BTTS
—
No data yet

⚡
77%
30-Day Win Rate
80%
7-Day
124
Won
@1.28
Odds
-0.8%
ROI
160
Tips
Full Record

SEE MORE RELIABLE PREDICTIONS

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