PENDING
Result: 2 — RFS to win
DirectWinPredict Latvia Virsliga Tukums 2000 vs RFS
T

Tukums 2000

Home Side
L L L L L
1W 1D 8L
VS
4:00 pm
Latvia Virsliga
R
RFS
Away Side
W W W W W
8W 1D 1L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
2
Backing RFS to win — Monday, 27th July 2026
Best Odds 1.12
Confidence 77%
Implied Prob 89.3%
H
20%
D
20%
A
60%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
2 — RFS to win
1.12
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals95% BTTS — Yes70%
Implied Prob
89.3%
Based on 1.12 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-12.3%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
0
Tukums 2000
0
Draws
10
RFS
10
Meetings
70%
BTTS Rate
80%
Over 2.5
4.6
Avg Goals
Supports Pick RFS won 10 of 10 meetings.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Tukums 2000
Metric
RFS
1.1
Goals For / Game
2.4
2.5
Goals Against / Game
0.6
0%
Clean Sheet %
50%
1-1-8
W — D — L
8-1-1
Win Rate Comparison
10%
80%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
R0
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
T0
0-0 3.7%
0-1 9.0%
0-2 11.1%
0-3 9.0%
0-4 5.5%
0-5 2.7%
T1
1-0 3.1%
1-1 7.7%
1-2 9.4%
1-3 7.7%
1-4 4.7%
1-5 2.3%
T2
2-0 1.3%
2-1 3.3%
2-2 4.0%
2-3 3.3%
2-4 2.0%
2-5 1.0%
T3
3-0 0.4%
3-1 0.9%
3-2 1.1%
3-3 0.9%
3-4 0.6%
3-5 0.3%
T4
4-0 0.1%
4-1 0.2%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.1%
T5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 0-2 (11.1%) 1-2 (9.4%) 0-1 (9.0%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · T=Home goals ↓   R=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Tukums 2000 Win
20%
5
Draw
20%
5
RFS Win
60%
1.67
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Tukums 2000
Overall
1.3
Scoring
3.7
Defence
1.7
RFS
Overall
8.3
Scoring
8.0
Defence
8.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Home Win & BTTS No 3%
Draw & BTTS Yes 7%
Draw & BTTS No 3%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 56%
Away Win & BTTS No 24%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 7%
Home Win & Under 2.5 3%
Draw & Over 2.5 7%
Draw & Under 2.5 3%
Away Win & Over 2.5 56%
Away Win & Under 2.5 24%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
25.05.26VIR
RFS3
Tukums 20001
13.04.26VIR
Tukums 20001
RFS2
19.10.25VIR
Tukums 20002
RFS4
26.07.25VIR
RFS6
Tukums 20002
25.05.25VIR
Tukums 20002
RFS5
09.04.25VIR
RFS2
Tukums 20000
20.10.24VIR
RFS4
Tukums 20001
27.07.24VIR
Tukums 20001
RFS4
25.05.24VIR
Tukums 20000
RFS1
12.04.24VIR
RFS5
Tukums 20000
Recent Form
Tukums 2000
18.07.26VIR
Riga FC3
Tukums 20001
L
11.07.26LC
Tukums 20001
Super Nova2
L
05.07.26VIR
Grobina3
Tukums 20001
L
01.07.26VIR
Tukums 20001
Super Nova2
L
26.06.26VIR
Ogre United3
Tukums 20002
L
21.06.26VIR
Jelgava4
Tukums 20001
L
17.06.26VIR
Tukums 20002
Auda1
W
12.06.26VIR
Tukums 20001
BFC Daugavpils1
D
30.05.26VIR
FK Liepaja3
Tukums 20000
L
25.05.26VIR
RFS3
Tukums 20001
L
RFS
23.07.26UECL
RFS4
Vestri1
W
20.07.26VIR
Jelgava0
RFS1
W
16.07.26UECL
RFS2
Glentoran0
W
12.07.26LC
RFS2
Jelgava0
W
09.07.26UECL
Glentoran1
RFS2
W
04.07.26VIR
RFS1
Auda1
D
30.06.26VIR
RFS3
BFC Daugavpils1
W
26.06.26VIR
FK Liepaja0
RFS2
W
22.06.26VIR
RFS6
Ogre United0
W
17.06.26VIR
Riga FC2
RFS1
L
Tukums 2000 (Home)
11.07.26LC
Tukums 20001
Super Nova2
L
01.07.26VIR
Tukums 20001
Super Nova2
L
17.06.26VIR
Tukums 20002
Auda1
W
12.06.26VIR
Tukums 20001
BFC Daugavpils1
D
20.05.26VIR
Tukums 20001
Riga FC3
L
07.05.26VIR
Tukums 20006
Ogre United1
W
01.05.26VIR
Tukums 20005
Jelgava0
W
21.04.26VIR
Tukums 20001
BFC Daugavpils1
D
17.04.26VIR
Tukums 20002
FK Liepaja2
D
13.04.26VIR
Tukums 20001
RFS2
L
RFS (Away)
20.07.26VIR
Jelgava0
RFS1
W
09.07.26UECL
Glentoran1
RFS2
W
26.06.26VIR
FK Liepaja0
RFS2
W
17.06.26VIR
Riga FC2
RFS1
L
13.06.26VIR
Grobina1
RFS3
W
29.05.26VIR
Super Nova1
RFS2
W
17.05.26VIR
Auda0
RFS3
W
13.05.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils0
RFS1
W
02.05.26VIR
Ogre United3
RFS4
W
22.04.26VIR
Grobina0
RFS1
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Monday, 27th July 2026, Tukums 2000 host RFS at Tukuma pilsētas stadions (Tukums) in Latvia Virsliga. We recommend RFS to win as the standout selection.

Tukums 2000 arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats from their last 10 outings.

RFS are travelling well, with a record of 8W 1D 1L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Tukums 2000, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to RFS's 10, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.

Our verdict: rfs to win at odds of 1.12 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Latvia Virsliga preview lives.

The home team strides in on 5 losses from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Tukuma pilsētas stadions (Tukums), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 5 wins from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 2, priced at @1.12, which the numbers settle at around 80%. The whistle goes at 4:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Tukums 2000 vs RFS?
Our selection is 2 — RFS to win, priced at approximately 1.12. Tip confidence rating: 77%.
What is Tukums 2000's current form?
Tukums 2000 have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 8 of their last 10 matches.
How has RFS been performing recently?
RFS have recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Tukums 2000 lead with 0 wins versus RFS's 10, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
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