PENDING
Result: 1 — Shkendija to win
DirectWinPredict Conference League Qualifier Shkendija vs Europa FC
S

Shkendija

Home Side
W D L L W
5W 1D 4L
VS
7:00 pm
Conference League Qualifier
E
Europa FC
Away Side
L W L D W
6W 2D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Shkendija to win — Thursday, 16th July 2026
Best Odds 1.22
Confidence 64%
Implied Prob 82%
H
60%
D
20%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Shkendija to win
1.22
Over 2.5 Goals65% BTTS — No70% Europa FC Clean Sheet60%
Implied Prob
82%
Based on 1.22 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-18%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
1
Shkendija
0
Draws
0
Europa FC
1
Meetings
0%
BTTS Rate
100%
Over 2.5
5
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Shkendija won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Shkendija
Metric
Europa FC
1.6
Goals For / Game
2.2
1.4
Goals Against / Game
0.9
20%
Clean Sheet %
60%
5-1-4
W — D — L
6-2-2
Win Rate Comparison
50%
60%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
E0
E1
E2
E3
E4
E5
S0
0-0 4.7%
0-1 8.5%
0-2 7.7%
0-3 4.6%
0-4 2.1%
0-5 0.8%
S1
1-0 5.9%
1-1 10.7%
1-2 9.6%
1-3 5.8%
1-4 2.6%
1-5 0.9%
S2
2-0 3.7%
2-1 6.7%
2-2 6.0%
2-3 3.6%
2-4 1.6%
2-5 0.6%
S3
3-0 1.5%
3-1 2.8%
3-2 2.5%
3-3 1.5%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.2%
S4
4-0 0.5%
4-1 0.9%
4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
S5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (6.7%) 1-0 (5.9%) 2-0 (3.7%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · S=Home goals ↓   E=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Shkendija Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Europa FC Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Shkendija
Overall
5.3
Scoring
5.3
Defence
5.3
Europa FC
Overall
6.6
Scoring
7.3
Defence
7.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Home Win & BTTS No 28%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Away Win & BTTS No 34%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 26%
Home Win & Under 2.5 14%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 4%
Away Win & Over 2.5 31%
Away Win & Under 2.5 17%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
09.07.26UECL
Europa FC0
Shkendija5
Recent Form
Shkendija
09.07.26UECL
Europa FC0
Shkendija5
W
30.06.26CF
FK Zorya Luhansk2
Shkendija2
D
27.06.26CF
Celje1
Shkendija0
L
23.06.26CF
Shkendija0
Hajduk Split4
L
19.06.26CF
Koper1
Shkendija2
W
23.05.261ML
Vardar3
Shkendija0
L
20.05.26CUP
Sileks1
Shkendija0
L
15.05.261ML
Shkendija2
Brera Strumica1
W
09.05.261ML
Shkendija3
Struga1
W
06.05.26CUP
Shkendija Haracine0
Shkendija2
W
Europa FC
09.07.26UECL
Europa FC0
Shkendija5
L
25.04.26NL
Europa FC4
Mons Calpe1
W
18.04.26NL
Lincoln Red Imps2
Europa FC0
L
11.04.26NL
Europa FC0
St Josephs0
D
04.04.26NL
Lions Gibraltar0
Europa FC3
W
21.03.26NL
Europa FC3
Lynx1
W
02.03.26NL
Manchester 620
Europa FC5
W
22.02.26NL
Europa FC6
Hound Dogs0
W
12.02.26NL
Europa FC0
Lincoln Red Imps0
D
07.02.26NL
College 1975 FC0
Europa FC1
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Thursday, 16th July 2026, Shkendija host Europa FC at National Arena Toshe Proeski (Skopje) in Conference League Qualifier. We recommend Shkendija to win as the standout selection.

Shkendija arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Europa FC are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 2D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Shkendija, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Europa FC's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: shkendija to win at odds of 1.22 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Conference League Qualifier preview lives.

The home team strides in on 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at National Arena Toshe Proeski (Skopje), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1, priced at @1.22, which the numbers settle at around 60,20,20%. The whistle goes at 7:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Shkendija vs Europa FC?
Our selection is 1 — Shkendija to win, priced at approximately 1.22. Tip confidence rating: 64%.
What is Shkendija's current form?
Shkendija have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Europa FC been performing recently?
Europa FC have recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Shkendija lead with 1 wins versus Europa FC's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
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