PENDING
Result: 1 — RFS to win
DirectWinPredict Conference League Qualifier RFS vs Glentoran
R

RFS

Home Side
W W D W W
8W 1D 1L
VS
5:30 pm
Conference League Qualifier
G
Glentoran
Away Side
L D L W D
3W 3D 4L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing RFS to win — Thursday, 16th July 2026
Best Odds 1.41
Confidence 68%
Implied Prob 70.9%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — RFS to win
1.41
Over 2.5 Goals75% Over 1.5 Goals95% BTTS — Yes70%
Implied Prob
70.9%
Based on 1.41 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-2.9%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
1
RFS
0
Draws
0
Glentoran
1
Meetings
100%
BTTS Rate
100%
Over 2.5
3
Avg Goals
Supports Pick RFS won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
RFS
Metric
Glentoran
2.5
Goals For / Game
2.3
0.8
Goals Against / Game
2
30%
Clean Sheet %
20%
8-1-1
W — D — L
3-3-4
Win Rate Comparison
80%
30%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
G0
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
R0
0-0 2.2%
0-1 3.5%
0-2 2.7%
0-3 1.4%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.2%
R1
1-0 5.0%
1-1 7.8%
1-2 6.1%
1-3 3.1%
1-4 1.2%
1-5 0.4%
R2
2-0 5.7%
2-1 8.8%
2-2 6.8%
2-3 3.5%
2-4 1.4%
2-5 0.4%
R3
3-0 4.3%
3-1 6.6%
3-2 5.1%
3-3 2.6%
3-4 1.0%
3-5 0.3%
R4
4-0 2.4%
4-1 3.7%
4-2 2.9%
4-3 1.5%
4-4 0.6%
4-5 0.2%
R5
5-0 1.1%
5-1 1.7%
5-2 1.3%
5-3 0.7%
5-4 0.3%
5-5 0.1%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (8.8%) 3-1 (6.6%) 2-0 (5.7%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · R=Home goals ↓   G=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
RFS Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Glentoran Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
RFS
Overall
8.3
Scoring
8.3
Defence
7.3
Glentoran
Overall
3.9
Scoring
7.7
Defence
3.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 43%
Home Win & BTTS No 19%
Draw & BTTS Yes 11%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 16%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 47%
Home Win & Under 2.5 16%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 4%
Away Win & Over 2.5 17%
Away Win & Under 2.5 6%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
09.07.26UECL
Glentoran1
RFS2
Recent Form
RFS
12.07.26LC
RFS2
Jelgava0
W
09.07.26UECL
Glentoran1
RFS2
W
04.07.26VIR
RFS1
Auda1
D
30.06.26VIR
RFS3
BFC Daugavpils1
W
26.06.26VIR
FK Liepaja0
RFS2
W
22.06.26VIR
RFS6
Ogre United0
W
17.06.26VIR
Riga FC2
RFS1
L
13.06.26VIR
Grobina1
RFS3
W
29.05.26VIR
Super Nova1
RFS2
W
25.05.26VIR
RFS3
Tukums 20001
W
Glentoran
09.07.26UECL
Glentoran1
RFS2
L
04.07.26CF
Dundela3
Glentoran3
D
01.07.26CF
Glentoran0
Kilmarnock4
L
26.06.26CF
East Belfast1
Glentoran8
W
24.06.26CF
Glentoran1
TNS1
D
20.06.26CF
Glentoran1
Caernarfon2
L
25.04.26NIFL
Coleraine6
Glentoran2
L
17.04.26NIFL
Glentoran0
Larne0
D
11.04.26NIFL
Glentoran5
Dungannon0
W
07.04.26NIFL
Cliftonville1
Glentoran2
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Thursday, 16th July 2026, RFS host Glentoran at LNK Sporta Parks (Riga) in Conference League Qualifier. We recommend RFS to win as the standout selection.

RFS arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Glentoran are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 3D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour RFS, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Glentoran's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: rfs to win at odds of 1.41 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Conference League Qualifier preview lives.

The home team strides in on 4 wins, 1 draw from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at LNK Sporta Parks (Riga), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1, priced at @1.41, which the numbers settle at around 50,30,20%. The whistle goes at 5:30 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for RFS vs Glentoran?
Our selection is 1 — RFS to win, priced at approximately 1.41. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is RFS's current form?
RFS have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Glentoran been performing recently?
Glentoran have recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
RFS lead with 1 wins versus Glentoran's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
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