PENDING
Result: 1 — Operario-PR to win
DirectWinPredict Brazil Serie B Operario-PR vs Ponte Preta
O

Operario-PR

Home Side
D W W W W
6W 2D 2L
VS
11:30 pm
Brazil Serie B
P
Ponte Preta
Away Side
L L L L L
0W 1D 9L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Operario-PR to win — Wednesday, 22nd July 2026
Best Odds 1.35
Confidence 50%
Implied Prob 74.1%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Operario-PR to win
1.35
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals85%
Implied Prob
74.1%
Based on 1.35 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-24.1%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
4
Operario-PR
3
Draws
3
Ponte Preta
10
Meetings
40%
BTTS Rate
30%
Over 2.5
1.8
Avg Goals
Against Pick Operario-PR won 4 of the last 10 meetings (3 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Operario-PR
Metric
Ponte Preta
1.7
Goals For / Game
0.6
1.4
Goals Against / Game
2.3
30%
Clean Sheet %
10%
6-2-2
W — D — L
0-1-9
Win Rate Comparison
60%
0%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
O0
0-0 5.0%
0-1 5.0%
0-2 2.5%
0-3 0.8%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
O1
1-0 10.0%
1-1 10.0%
1-2 5.0%
1-3 1.7%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
O2
2-0 10.0%
2-1 10.0%
2-2 5.0%
2-3 1.7%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
O3
3-0 6.6%
3-1 6.6%
3-2 3.3%
3-3 1.1%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
O4
4-0 3.3%
4-1 3.3%
4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
O5
5-0 1.3%
5-1 1.3%
5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (10.0%) 2-0 (10.0%) 2-1 (10.0%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · O=Home goals ↓   P=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Operario-PR Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Ponte Preta Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Operario-PR
Overall
6.6
Scoring
5.7
Defence
5.3
Ponte Preta
Overall
0.3
Scoring
2.0
Defence
2.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 48%
Home Win & BTTS No 32%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 52%
Home Win & Under 2.5 28%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
24.08.24SB
Ponte Preta0
Operario-PR1
11.05.24SB
Operario-PR1
Ponte Preta1
30.07.22SB
Ponte Preta3
Operario-PR0
16.04.22SB
Operario-PR2
Ponte Preta0
23.09.21SB
Operario-PR1
Ponte Preta2
22.06.21SB
Ponte Preta0
Operario-PR0
15.12.20SB
Operario-PR1
Ponte Preta0
19.09.20SB
Ponte Preta1
Operario-PR1
17.09.19SB
Operario-PR2
Ponte Preta1
18.05.19SB
Ponte Preta1
Operario-PR0
Recent Form
Operario-PR
18.07.26SB
Sport Recife2
Operario-PR2
D
12.07.26SB
Operario-PR2
Novorizontino1
W
08.07.26SB
Athletic Club0
Operario-PR1
W
27.06.26SB
Operario-PR1
America MG0
W
21.06.26SB
Goias0
Operario-PR3
W
14.06.26SB
Botafogo SP2
Operario-PR1
L
06.06.26SB
Operario-PR2
Juventude1
W
31.05.26SB
Ceara1
Operario-PR2
W
25.05.26SB
Operario-PR1
Criciuma1
D
16.05.26SB
Operario-PR2
Nautico6
L
Ponte Preta
18.07.26SB
Ponte Preta1
Goias2
L
09.07.26SB
Ponte Preta1
Criciuma2
L
03.07.26SB
Fortaleza2
Ponte Preta0
L
28.06.26SB
Atletico GO2
Ponte Preta0
L
23.06.26SB
Ponte Preta0
Novorizontino2
L
14.06.26SB
Juventude3
Ponte Preta0
L
09.06.26SB
Ponte Preta1
Cuiaba2
L
01.06.26SB
Ponte Preta0
Botafogo SP0
D
24.05.26SB
CRB4
Ponte Preta2
L
18.05.26SB
Ponte Preta1
Londrina4
L
Operario-PR (Home)
12.07.26SB
Operario-PR2
Novorizontino1
W
27.06.26SB
Operario-PR1
America MG0
W
06.06.26SB
Operario-PR2
Juventude1
W
25.05.26SB
Operario-PR1
Criciuma1
D
16.05.26SB
Operario-PR2
Nautico6
L
07.05.26CSS
Operario-PR1
Chapecoense-SC2
L
03.05.26SB
Operario-PR3
Londrina0
W
26.04.26SB
Operario-PR0
Fortaleza0
D
24.04.26COP
Operario-PR0
Fluminense0
D
15.04.26CSS
Operario-PR1
Novorizontino1
D
Ponte Preta (Away)
03.07.26SB
Fortaleza2
Ponte Preta0
L
28.06.26SB
Atletico GO2
Ponte Preta0
L
14.06.26SB
Juventude3
Ponte Preta0
L
24.05.26SB
CRB4
Ponte Preta2
L
03.05.26SB
Sao Bernardo3
Ponte Preta0
L
19.04.26SB
Avai1
Ponte Preta2
W
04.04.26SB
Nautico1
Ponte Preta0
L
22.03.26SB
Athletic Club2
Ponte Preta1
L
19.03.26COP
Atletico GO1
Ponte Preta0
L
07.02.26PAU
Portuguesa2
Ponte Preta0
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Wednesday, 22nd July 2026, Operario-PR host Ponte Preta at Estádio Germano Krüger (Ponta Grossa) in Brazil Serie B. We recommend Operario-PR to win as the standout selection.

Operario-PR arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Ponte Preta are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 1D 9L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Operario-PR, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Ponte Preta's 3, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: operario-pr to win at odds of 1.35 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Brazil Serie B preview lives.

The home team strides in on 4 wins, 1 draw from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Estádio Germano Krüger (Ponta Grossa), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 5 losses from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1, priced at @1.35, which the numbers settle at around 50,30,20%. The whistle goes at 11:30 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Operario-PR vs Ponte Preta?
Our selection is 1 — Operario-PR to win, priced at approximately 1.35. Tip confidence rating: 50%.
What is Operario-PR's current form?
Operario-PR have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Ponte Preta been performing recently?
Ponte Preta have recorded 0 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Operario-PR lead with 4 wins versus Ponte Preta's 3, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
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