PENDING
Result: 2 — Metta to win
DirectWinPredict Latvia Nakotnes liga Marupe vs Metta
M

Marupe

Home Side
L W L W L
6W 0D 4L
VS
1:00 pm
Latvia Nakotnes liga
M
Metta
Away Side
W W W W W
8W 1D 1L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
2
Backing Metta to win — Saturday, 18th July 2026
Best Odds 1.22
Confidence 68%
Implied Prob 82%
H
20%
D
30%
A
50%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
2 — Metta to win
1.22
Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals85%
Implied Prob
82%
Based on 1.22 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-14%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
0
Marupe
0
Draws
2
Metta
2
Meetings
100%
BTTS Rate
100%
Over 2.5
5
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Metta won 2 of 2 meetings.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Marupe
Metric
Metta
1.7
Goals For / Game
3.5
1.4
Goals Against / Game
1.1
20%
Clean Sheet %
30%
6-0-4
W — D — L
8-1-1
Win Rate Comparison
60%
80%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M0
0-0 2.1%
0-1 5.2%
0-2 6.4%
0-3 5.2%
0-4 3.2%
0-5 1.6%
M1
1-0 3.0%
1-1 7.3%
1-2 8.9%
1-3 7.3%
1-4 4.5%
1-5 2.2%
M2
2-0 2.1%
2-1 5.1%
2-2 6.3%
2-3 5.1%
2-4 3.1%
2-5 1.5%
M3
3-0 1.0%
3-1 2.4%
3-2 2.9%
3-3 2.4%
3-4 1.5%
3-5 0.7%
M4
4-0 0.3%
4-1 0.8%
4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.8%
4-4 0.5%
4-5 0.3%
M5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.1%
Top Predicted Scores 1-2 (8.9%) 1-3 (7.3%) 0-2 (6.4%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · M=Home goals ↓   M=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Marupe Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Metta Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Marupe
Overall
6.0
Scoring
5.7
Defence
5.3
Metta
Overall
8.3
Scoring
10.0
Defence
6.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 27%
Home Win & BTTS No 14%
Draw & BTTS Yes 2%
Draw & BTTS No 1%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 36%
Away Win & BTTS No 20%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 33%
Home Win & Under 2.5 8%
Draw & Over 2.5 2%
Draw & Under 2.5 1%
Away Win & Over 2.5 45%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
13.07.25LC
Marupe1
Metta4
08.02.24CF
Metta4
Marupe1
Recent Form
Marupe
12.07.26LC
Marupe0
Grobina1
L
04.07.26NL
Marupe2
FK Smiltene1
W
27.06.26NL
Riga Mariners2
Marupe0
L
19.06.26LC
Marupe4
Aliance (AET)2
W
14.06.26NL
Marupe1
JFK Ventspils2
L
30.05.26LC
JFC Viola1
Marupe2
W
23.05.26NL
Marupe1
RFS 24
L
17.05.26NL
Riga FC 20
Marupe4
W
09.05.26NL
Tukums 2000 21
Marupe2
W
02.05.26NL
Super Nova 20
Marupe1
W
Metta
10.07.26LC
Metta3
Speks1
W
04.07.26NL
Metta3
Skanste1
W
28.06.26NL
Leevon PPK1
Metta3
W
20.06.26LC
Metta5
Kekava-Auda0
W
13.06.26NL
Metta7
Super Nova 23
W
31.05.26LC
Lielupe0
Metta6
W
23.05.26NL
Riga Mariners2
Metta2
D
16.05.26NL
Metta4
Alberts JDFS1
W
09.05.26NL
JFK Ventspils0
Metta1
W
02.05.26NL
Metta1
Valmiera2
L
Marupe (Home)
12.07.26LC
Marupe0
Grobina1
L
04.07.26NL
Marupe2
FK Smiltene1
W
19.06.26LC
Marupe4
Aliance (AET)2
W
14.06.26NL
Marupe1
JFK Ventspils2
L
23.05.26NL
Marupe1
RFS 24
L
18.04.26NL
Marupe2
Valmiera3
L
04.04.26NL
Marupe4
Skanste0
W
22.03.26NL
Marupe4
Rezekne0
W
08.11.25NL
Marupe0
Ogre United1
L
25.10.25NL
Marupe5
AFA Olaine1
W
Metta (Away)
28.06.26NL
Leevon PPK1
Metta3
W
31.05.26LC
Lielupe0
Metta6
W
23.05.26NL
Riga Mariners2
Metta2
D
09.05.26NL
JFK Ventspils0
Metta1
W
11.04.26NL
RFS 20
Metta3
W
21.03.26NL
Tukums 2000 21
Metta3
W
21.02.26CF
Tartu Welco0
Metta4
W
07.02.26CF
FK Panevezys2
Metta1
L
04.02.26CF
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Metta3
W
31.01.26CF
Paide2
Metta1
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Saturday, 18th July 2026, Marupe host Metta at N/A in Latvia Nakotnes liga. We recommend Metta to win as the standout selection.

Marupe arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Metta are travelling well, with a record of 8W 1D 1L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Marupe, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Metta's 2, with 0 draws from 2 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: metta to win at odds of 1.22 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Latvia Nakotnes liga preview lives.

The home team strides in on 2 wins, 3 losses from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at N/A, and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 5 wins from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 2, priced at @1.22, which the numbers settle at around 20,30,50%. The whistle goes at 1:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Marupe vs Metta?
Our selection is 2 — Metta to win, priced at approximately 1.22. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is Marupe's current form?
Marupe have won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Metta been performing recently?
Metta have recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Marupe lead with 0 wins versus Metta's 2, with 0 draws across 2 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
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