PENDING
Result: Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
DirectWinPredict Europa League Qualifier Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Sheriff Tiraspol
M

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Home Side
W W L W W
4W 2D 4L
VS
5:00 pm
Europa League Qualifier
S
Sheriff Tiraspol
Away Side
D L W W W
5W 4D 1L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals — Thursday, 30th July 2026
Best Odds 1.16
Confidence 83%
Implied Prob 86.2%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.16
Sheriff Tiraspol Clean Sheet70%
Implied Prob
86.2%
Based on 1.16 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-3.2%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
1
Maccabi Tel Aviv
0
Draws
0
Sheriff Tiraspol
1
Meetings
0%
BTTS Rate
100%
Over 2.5
5
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 1.5 in 100% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Metric
Sheriff Tiraspol
1.7
Goals For / Game
1.3
1.5
Goals Against / Game
0.9
20%
Clean Sheet %
70%
4-2-4
W — D — L
5-4-1
Win Rate Comparison
40%
50%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
M0
0-0 6.7%
0-1 9.4%
0-2 6.6%
0-3 3.1%
0-4 1.1%
0-5 0.3%
M1
1-0 8.7%
1-1 12.2%
1-2 8.6%
1-3 4.0%
1-4 1.4%
1-5 0.4%
M2
2-0 5.7%
2-1 8.0%
2-2 5.6%
2-3 2.6%
2-4 0.9%
2-5 0.3%
M3
3-0 2.5%
3-1 3.5%
3-2 2.4%
3-3 1.1%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
M4
4-0 0.8%
4-1 1.1%
4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
M5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-1 (12.2%) 0-1 (9.4%) 1-0 (8.7%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · M=Home goals ↓   S=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Overall
4.6
Scoring
5.7
Defence
5.0
Sheriff Tiraspol
Overall
6.2
Scoring
4.3
Defence
7.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Home Win & BTTS No 20%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 15%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Away Win & BTTS No 25%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 18%
Home Win & Under 2.5 15%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 23%
Away Win & Under 2.5 19%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
23.07.26EL
Sheriff Tiraspol0
Maccabi Tel Aviv5
Recent Form
Maccabi Tel Aviv
23.07.26EL
Sheriff Tiraspol0
Maccabi Tel Aviv5
W
16.07.26SC
H. Beer Sheva1
Maccabi Tel Aviv3
W
03.07.26CF
IMT Novi Beograd1
Maccabi Tel Aviv0
L
30.06.26CF
Maccabi Tel Aviv1
Alashkert0
W
26.05.26SC
H. Beer Sheva1
Maccabi Tel Aviv2
W
23.05.26LH
Hapoel Petah Tikva2
Maccabi Tel Aviv2
D
19.05.26LH
H. Beer Sheva4
Maccabi Tel Aviv2
L
16.05.26LH
Maccabi Tel Aviv1
Beitar Jerusalem2
L
13.05.26LH
Maccabi Tel Aviv3
Maccabi Haifa0
W
09.05.26LH
Hapoel Tel Aviv1
Maccabi Tel Aviv1
D
Sheriff Tiraspol
26.07.26SL
Sheriff Tiraspol0
Milsami0
D
23.07.26EL
Sheriff Tiraspol0
Maccabi Tel Aviv5
L
19.07.26SL
Petrocub2
Sheriff Tiraspol3
W
16.07.26EL
Aluminij0
Sheriff Tiraspol1
W
12.07.26SL
Sheriff Tiraspol4
Zimbru Chisinau2
W
09.07.26EL
Sheriff Tiraspol0
Aluminij0
D
04.07.26SL
Politehnica UTM0
Sheriff Tiraspol0
D
28.06.26SL
Sheriff Tiraspol3
Real Sireti0
W
23.05.26CUP
Sheriff Tiraspol2
Zimbru Chisinau0
W
17.05.26SL
Milsami0
Sheriff Tiraspol0
D
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Thursday, 30th July 2026, Maccabi Tel Aviv host Sheriff Tiraspol at Adjarabet Arena (Batumi) in Europa League Qualifier. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.

Maccabi Tel Aviv arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Sheriff Tiraspol are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 4D 1L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Maccabi Tel Aviv, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Sheriff Tiraspol's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.16 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Europa League Qualifier preview lives.

The home team strides in on 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Adjarabet Arena (Batumi), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is Over 1.5, priced at @1.16, which the numbers settle at around 90%. The whistle goes at 5:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Sheriff Tiraspol?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.16. Tip confidence rating: 83%.
What is Maccabi Tel Aviv's current form?
Maccabi Tel Aviv have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Sheriff Tiraspol been performing recently?
Sheriff Tiraspol have recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Maccabi Tel Aviv lead with 1 wins versus Sheriff Tiraspol's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
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