PENDING
Result: 1 โ€” Larne to win
DirectWinPredict โ€บ UCL Qualifiersโ€บ Larne vs Tre Flori
L

Larne

Home Side
W W W W D
5W 2D 2L
VS
โ€”
8:00 pm
โ€”
UCL Qualifiers
T
Tre Flori
Away Side
L L D W W
6W 2D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Larne to win โ€” Tuesday, 14th July 2026
Best Odds 1.19
Confidence 61%
Implied Prob 84%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
โšก Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 โ€” Larne to win
1.19
Under 2.5 Goals79% BTTS โ€” No83% Larne Clean Sheet67%
Implied Prob
84%
Based on 1.19 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-23%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
โš” Head to Head Record
1
Larne
0
Draws
0
Tre Flori
1
Meetings
0%
BTTS Rate
0%
Over 2.5
1
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Larne won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
๐Ÿ“Š Key Stats Duel Comparison
Larne
Metric
Tre Flori
1.8
Goals For / Game
0
0.8
Goals Against / Game
0
67%
Clean Sheet %
0%
5-2-2
W โ€” D โ€” L
6-2-2
Win Rate Comparison
56%
60%
๐ŸŽฏ Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
L0
0-0 27.3%
0-1 10.9%
0-2 2.2%
0-3 0.3%
0-4 0.0%
0-5 0.0%
L1
1-0 24.5%
1-1 9.8%
1-2 2.0%
1-3 0.3%
1-4 0.0%
1-5 0.0%
L2
2-0 11.0%
2-1 4.4%
2-2 0.9%
2-3 0.1%
2-4 0.0%
2-5 0.0%
L3
3-0 3.3%
3-1 1.3%
3-2 0.3%
3-3 0.0%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
L4
4-0 0.8%
4-1 0.3%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
L5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (24.5%) 2-0 (11.0%) 2-1 (4.4%)
โ–  Most likely (tip) โ–  Possible (tip) โ–  Low (tip)  ยท  โ–  Contradicts tip Poisson model ยท L=Home goals โ†“   T=Away goals โ†’
๐Ÿ“‰ Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Larne Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Tre Flori Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
๐Ÿ“ˆ Team Ratings Grades
Larne
Overall
6.2 โ–ผ
Scoring
5.9 โ–ผ
Defence
7.4 โ–ผ
Tre Flori
Overall
6.6 โ–ฒ
Scoring
0.0 โ–ฒ
Defence
10.0 โ–ฒ
๐Ÿ”€ Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Home Win & BTTS No 34%
Draw & BTTS Yes 2%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Away Win & BTTS No 37%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 9%
Home Win & Under 2.5 32%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 12%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 35%
๐Ÿงฎ Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
โ€”
Kelly %
โ€”
Stake Amount
โ€”
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
๐Ÿ“œ Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
07.07.26CL
Tre Fiori0
Larne1
Recent Form
Larne
07.07.26CL
Tre Fiori0
Larne1
W
29.06.26CF
H&W Welders1
Larne2
W
23.06.26CF
Larne1
Connahs Q.0
W
20.06.26CF
Stranraer0
Larne0
D
25.04.26NIFL
Larne8
Dungannon0
W
17.04.26NIFL
Glentoran0
Larne0
D
11.04.26NIFL
Linfield0
Larne2
W
07.04.26NIFL
Larne1
Coleraine4
L
04.04.26CUP
Coleraine2
Larne - L (AET)1
Tre Flori
07.07.26CL
Tre Fiori0
Larne1
L
23.05.26COP
Tre Fiori1
La Fiorita3
L
26.04.26CAM
Tre Fiori1
Pennarossa1
D
19.04.26CAM
Faetano0
Tre Fiori1
W
12.04.26CAM
Tre Fiori3
Libertas0
W
08.04.26CAM
Murata0
Tre Fiori3
W
22.03.26CAM
Tre Fiori0
La Fiorita0
D
18.03.26COP
Tre Fiori1
Virtus0
W
14.03.26CAM
Tre Fiori4
Virtus1
W
08.03.26CAM
Tre Fiori3
Cailungo2
W
๐Ÿ“ Match Analysis Writeup

On Tuesday, 14th July 2026, Larne host Tre Flori at Inver Park (Larne) in UCL Qualifiers. We recommend Larne to win as the standout selection.

Larne arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 9 outings.

Tre Flori are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 2D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Larne, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Tre Flori's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: larne to win at odds of 1.19 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this UCL Qualifiers preview lives.

The home team strides in on 4 wins, 1 draw from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Inver Park (Larne), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground โ€” all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1, priced at @1.19, which the numbers settle at around 50,30,20%. The whistle goes at 8:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not โ€” and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today โ€” the value rarely sits in just one place.

โ“ Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Larne vs Tre Flori?
Our selection is 1 โ€” Larne to win, priced at approximately 1.19. Tip confidence rating: 61%.
What is Larne's current form?
Larne have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 9 matches.
How has Tre Flori been performing recently?
Tre Flori have recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Larne lead with 1 wins versus Tre Flori's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
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