PENDING
Result: 1 — Kauno Zalgiris to win
DirectWinPredict Lithuania Toplyga Kauno Zalgiris vs FA Siauliai
K

Kauno Zalgiris

Home Side
W W D D W
5W 3D 2L
VS
5:00 pm
Lithuania Toplyga
F
FA Siauliai
Away Side
L L W L L
3W 2D 5L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Kauno Zalgiris to win — Saturday, 18th July 2026
Best Odds 1.21
Confidence 55%
Implied Prob 82.6%
H
50%
D
20%
A
30%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Kauno Zalgiris to win
1.21
Over 1.5 Goals80%
Implied Prob
82.6%
Based on 1.21 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-27.6%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
7
Kauno Zalgiris
2
Draws
1
FA Siauliai
10
Meetings
60%
BTTS Rate
80%
Over 2.5
3.2
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Kauno Zalgiris won 7 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Kauno Zalgiris
Metric
FA Siauliai
1.5
Goals For / Game
1.4
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.8
40%
Clean Sheet %
20%
5-3-2
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate Comparison
50%
30%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
K0
0-0 6.4%
0-1 7.0%
0-2 3.9%
0-3 1.4%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
K1
1-0 10.6%
1-1 11.6%
1-2 6.4%
1-3 2.3%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
K2
2-0 8.7%
2-1 9.6%
2-2 5.3%
2-3 1.9%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
K3
3-0 4.8%
3-1 5.3%
3-2 2.9%
3-3 1.1%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
K4
4-0 2.0%
4-1 2.2%
4-2 1.2%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
K5
5-0 0.7%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (10.6%) 2-1 (9.6%) 2-0 (8.7%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · K=Home goals ↓   F=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Kauno Zalgiris Win
50%
2
Draw
20%
5
FA Siauliai Win
30%
3.33
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Kauno Zalgiris
Overall
5.9
Scoring
5.0
Defence
7.3
FA Siauliai
Overall
3.6
Scoring
4.7
Defence
4.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 29%
Home Win & BTTS No 19%
Draw & BTTS Yes 14%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Away Win & BTTS No 11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 29%
Home Win & Under 2.5 19%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 10%
Away Win & Over 2.5 17%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
16.05.26TL
Kauno Zalgiris0
FA Siauliai0
15.03.26TL
FA Siauliai0
Kauno Zalgiris5
17.10.25TL
Kauno Zalgiris3
FA Siauliai1
20.08.25TL
FA Siauliai2
Kauno Zalgiris2
23.05.25TL
Kauno Zalgiris3
FA Siauliai0
29.03.25TL
FA Siauliai2
Kauno Zalgiris3
15.09.24TL
Kauno Zalgiris2
FA Siauliai1
21.08.24CUP
Kauno Zalgiris3
FA Siauliai1
01.07.24TL
FA Siauliai1
Kauno Zalgiris0
12.05.24TL
Kauno Zalgiris2
FA Siauliai1
Recent Form
Kauno Zalgiris
14.07.26CL
Drita2
Kauno Zalgiris3
W
11.07.26TL
Kauno Zalgiris3
FK Panevezys0
W
07.07.26CL
Kauno Zalgiris1
Drita1
D
03.07.26TL
Dziugas Telsiai0
Kauno Zalgiris0
D
23.06.26CUP
BFA Vilnius0
Kauno Zalgiris3
W
20.06.26TL
Transinvest1
Kauno Zalgiris2
W
17.06.26TL
Kauno Zalgiris0
Banga1
L
14.06.26TL
Hegelmann1
Kauno Zalgiris1
D
31.05.26TL
Kauno Zalgiris0
Zalgiris1
L
23.05.26TL
Suduva2
Kauno Zalgiris1
L
FA Siauliai
05.07.26TL
FA Siauliai0
Zalgiris3
L
29.06.26TL
FA Siauliai1
Transinvest3
L
24.06.26CUP
FA Siauliai2
Dziugas Telsiai1
W
20.06.26TL
FK Panevezys3
FA Siauliai2
L
16.06.26TL
Suduva2
FA Siauliai1
L
12.06.26TL
Dziugas Telsiai4
FA Siauliai3
L
30.05.26TL
Banga1
FA Siauliai1
D
25.05.26TL
FA Siauliai2
Riteriai0
W
20.05.26CUP
Ataka Vilnius1
FA Siauliai2
W
16.05.26TL
Kauno Zalgiris0
FA Siauliai0
D
Kauno Zalgiris (Home)
11.07.26TL
Kauno Zalgiris3
FK Panevezys0
W
07.07.26CL
Kauno Zalgiris1
Drita1
D
17.06.26TL
Kauno Zalgiris0
Banga1
L
31.05.26TL
Kauno Zalgiris0
Zalgiris1
L
16.05.26TL
Kauno Zalgiris0
FA Siauliai0
D
05.05.26TL
Kauno Zalgiris2
Dziugas Telsiai2
D
25.04.26TL
Kauno Zalgiris4
Riteriai0
W
18.04.26TL
Kauno Zalgiris1
Transinvest2
L
11.04.26TL
Kauno Zalgiris5
Hegelmann0
W
21.03.26TL
Kauno Zalgiris1
Suduva1
D
FA Siauliai (Away)
20.06.26TL
FK Panevezys3
FA Siauliai2
L
16.06.26TL
Suduva2
FA Siauliai1
L
12.06.26TL
Dziugas Telsiai4
FA Siauliai3
L
30.05.26TL
Banga1
FA Siauliai1
D
20.05.26CUP
Ataka Vilnius1
FA Siauliai2
W
16.05.26TL
Kauno Zalgiris0
FA Siauliai0
D
09.05.26TL
Hegelmann1
FA Siauliai1
D
06.05.26TL
Zalgiris3
FA Siauliai1
L
29.04.26CUP
Jonava0
FA Siauliai4
W
12.04.26TL
Dziugas Telsiai1
FA Siauliai0
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Saturday, 18th July 2026, Kauno Zalgiris host FA Siauliai at Darius and Girėnas Stadium (Kaunas) in Lithuania Toplyga. We recommend Kauno Zalgiris to win as the standout selection.

Kauno Zalgiris arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

FA Siauliai are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 2D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Kauno Zalgiris, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to FA Siauliai's 1, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: kauno zalgiris to win at odds of 1.21 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Lithuania Toplyga preview lives.

The home team strides in on 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Darius and Girėnas Stadium (Kaunas), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 1 win, 4 losses from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1, priced at @1.21, which the numbers settle at around 50,20,30%. The whistle goes at 5:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Kauno Zalgiris vs FA Siauliai?
Our selection is 1 — Kauno Zalgiris to win, priced at approximately 1.21. Tip confidence rating: 55%.
What is Kauno Zalgiris's current form?
Kauno Zalgiris have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has FA Siauliai been performing recently?
FA Siauliai have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Kauno Zalgiris lead with 7 wins versus FA Siauliai's 1, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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