PENDING
Result: 1 — HJK to win
DirectWinPredict Conference League Qualifiers HJK vs Coleraine
H

HJK

Home Side
W L W L W
7W 1D 3L
VS
5:00 pm
Conference League Qualifiers
C
Coleraine
Away Side
W W W W W
9W 1D 0L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing HJK to win — Thursday, 23rd July 2026
Best Odds 1.36
Confidence 56%
Implied Prob 73.5%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — HJK to win
1.36
Over 2.5 Goals81% Over 1.5 Goals90%
Implied Prob
73.5%
Based on 1.36 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-17.5%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
Neutral Data No head-to-head data on record.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
HJK
Metric
Coleraine
3.3
Goals For / Game
3.3
1.5
Goals Against / Game
1
18%
Clean Sheet %
40%
7-1-3
W — D — L
9-1-0
Win Rate Comparison
64%
90%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
H0
0-0 1.1%
0-1 2.5%
0-2 3.0%
0-3 2.4%
0-4 1.5%
0-5 0.7%
H1
1-0 2.3%
1-1 5.5%
1-2 6.5%
1-3 5.2%
1-4 3.1%
1-5 1.5%
H2
2-0 2.4%
2-1 5.9%
2-2 7.0%
2-3 5.6%
2-4 3.4%
2-5 1.6%
H3
3-0 1.8%
3-1 4.2%
3-2 5.0%
3-3 4.0%
3-4 2.4%
3-5 1.2%
H4
4-0 0.9%
4-1 2.3%
4-2 2.7%
4-3 2.2%
4-4 1.3%
4-5 0.6%
H5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 1.2%
5-3 0.9%
5-4 0.6%
5-5 0.3%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (5.9%) 3-2 (5.0%) 3-1 (4.2%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · H=Home goals ↓   C=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
HJK Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Coleraine Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
HJK
Overall
6.6
Scoring
10.0
Defence
4.8
Coleraine
Overall
9.3
Scoring
10.0
Defence
6.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 24%
Home Win & BTTS No 15%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 2%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 34%
Away Win & BTTS No 21%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 32%
Home Win & Under 2.5 7%
Draw & Over 2.5 5%
Draw & Under 2.5 1%
Away Win & Over 2.5 45%
Away Win & Under 2.5 10%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head

No data found.

Recent Form
HJK
18.07.26VEI
HJK2
VPS1
W
11.07.26VEI
Lahti2
HJK0
L
01.07.26CUP
HJK2
Ilves1
W
27.06.26VEI
HJK0
KuPS4
L
23.06.26VEI
Mariehamn0
HJK4
W
17.06.26VEI
HJK3
Inter Turku3
D
13.06.26VEI
Jaro2
HJK5
W
09.06.26CUP
Honka1
HJK7
W
30.05.26VEI
HJK1
Mariehamn0
W
26.05.26CUP
HJK11
MyPa1
W
22.05.26VEI
VPS2
HJK1
L
Coleraine
18.07.26CF
Coleraine3
Portadown0
W
14.07.26CF
Sligo Rovers1
Coleraine2
W
11.07.26CF
Newbuildings2
Coleraine5
W
11.07.26CF
Coleraine3
Portstewart0
W
07.07.26CF
Limavady0
Coleraine1
W
04.07.26CF
Coleraine1
H&W Welders1
D
02.05.26CUP
Dungannon2
Coleraine3
W
25.04.26NIFL
Coleraine6
Glentoran2
W
18.04.26NIFL
Linfield0
Coleraine3
W
11.04.26NIFL
Coleraine6
Cliftonville2
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Thursday, 23rd July 2026, HJK host Coleraine at Bolt Arena (Helsinki) in Conference League Qualifiers. We recommend HJK to win as the standout selection.

HJK arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from their last 11 outings.

Coleraine are travelling well, with a record of 9W 1D 0L across 10 matches.

Our verdict: hjk to win at odds of 1.36 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Conference League Qualifiers preview lives.

The home team strides in on 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Bolt Arena (Helsinki), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 5 wins from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1, priced at @1.36, which the numbers settle at around 50,30,20%. The whistle goes at 5:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for HJK vs Coleraine?
Our selection is 1 — HJK to win, priced at approximately 1.36. Tip confidence rating: 56%.
What is HJK's current form?
HJK have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 11 matches.
How has Coleraine been performing recently?
Coleraine have recorded 9 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
No recent head-to-head data available.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.6 goals per game.
Scroll to Top
18+Gambling can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.