PENDING
Result: 1 — Hafnarfjordur W to win
DirectWinPredict Iceland Besta deild Women Hafnarfjordur W vs Throttur W
H

Hafnarfjordur W

Home Side
D L W W W
7W 1D 2L
VS
8:15 pm
Iceland Besta deild Women
T
Throttur W
Away Side
L W D W L
6W 1D 3L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Hafnarfjordur W to win — Thursday, 9th July 2026
Best Odds 1.33
Confidence 53%
Implied Prob 75.2%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Hafnarfjordur W to win
1.33
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals80%
Implied Prob
75.2%
Based on 1.33 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-22.2%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
4
Hafnarfjordur W
0
Draws
6
Throttur W
10
Meetings
60%
BTTS Rate
90%
Over 2.5
3.9
Avg Goals
Against Pick Hafnarfjordur W won 4 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Hafnarfjordur W
Metric
Throttur W
3.2
Goals For / Game
1.5
1.4
Goals Against / Game
0.9
20%
Clean Sheet %
40%
7-1-2
W — D — L
6-1-3
Win Rate Comparison
70%
60%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
H0
0-0 3.0%
0-1 4.4%
0-2 3.2%
0-3 1.5%
0-4 0.6%
0-5 0.2%
H1
1-0 6.2%
1-1 9.0%
1-2 6.5%
1-3 3.2%
1-4 1.1%
1-5 0.3%
H2
2-0 6.4%
2-1 9.2%
2-2 6.7%
2-3 3.2%
2-4 1.2%
2-5 0.3%
H3
3-0 4.3%
3-1 6.3%
3-2 4.6%
3-3 2.2%
3-4 0.8%
3-5 0.2%
H4
4-0 2.2%
4-1 3.2%
4-2 2.3%
4-3 1.1%
4-4 0.4%
4-5 0.1%
H5
5-0 0.9%
5-1 1.3%
5-2 1.0%
5-3 0.5%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.2%) 2-0 (6.4%) 3-1 (6.3%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · H=Home goals ↓   T=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Hafnarfjordur W Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Throttur W Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Hafnarfjordur W
Overall
7.3
Scoring
10.0
Defence
5.3
Throttur W
Overall
6.3
Scoring
5.0
Defence
7.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Home Win & BTTS No 20%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 3%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Away Win & BTTS No 17%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 35%
Home Win & Under 2.5 15%
Draw & Over 2.5 5%
Draw & Under 2.5 2%
Away Win & Over 2.5 30%
Away Win & Under 2.5 13%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
30.04.26BD
Throttur W2
Hafnarfjordur1
21.02.26CUP
Throttur W3
Hafnarfjordur2
05.10.25BD
Hafnarfjordur W4
Throttur0
28.08.25BD
Hafnarfjordur W3
Throttur0
17.05.25BD
Throttur W4
Hafnarfjordur1
05.10.24BD
Hafnarfjordur W0
Throttur3
20.07.24BD
Throttur W2
Hafnarfjordur1
08.05.24BD
Hafnarfjordur W1
Throttur0
08.02.24CUP
Throttur W2
Hafnarfjordur5
12.09.23BD
Hafnarfjordur W2
Throttur3
Recent Form
Hafnarfjordur W
23.06.26BD
Hafnarfjordur W1
Valur W1
D
17.06.26CUP
IBV Vestmannaeyjar W3
Hafnarfjordur W2
L
13.06.26BD
Vikingur Reykjavik W2
Hafnarfjordur W5
W
30.05.26BD
Hafnarfjordur W6
Fram W2
W
25.05.26BD
Breidablik W2
Hafnarfjordur W3
W
20.05.26BD
Hafnarfjordur W3
IBV Vestmannaeyjar W0
W
15.05.26CUP
Selfoss W0
Hafnarfjordur W7
W
10.05.26BD
Stjarnan W1
Hafnarfjordur W2
W
06.05.26BD
Hafnarfjordur W2
Grindavik/Njardvik W1
W
30.04.26BD
Throttur W2
Hafnarfjordur W1
L
Throttur W
22.06.26BD
Thor/KA W2
Throttur W0
L
18.06.26CUP
Throttur W1
Vikingur Reykjavik W0
W
13.06.26BD
Throttur W0
IBV Vestmannaeyjar W0
D
29.05.26BD
Valur W0
Throttur W1
W
25.05.26BD
Throttur W0
Stjarnan W1
L
20.05.26BD
Vikingur Reykjavik W1
Throttur W4
W
16.05.26CUP
Throttur W3
Breidablik W2
W
11.05.26BD
Throttur W1
Grindavik/Njardvik W2
L
05.05.26BD
Fram W0
Throttur W3
W
30.04.26BD
Throttur W2
Hafnarfjordur W1
W
Hafnarfjordur W (Home)
23.06.26BD
Hafnarfjordur W1
Valur W1
D
30.05.26BD
Hafnarfjordur W6
Fram W2
W
20.05.26BD
Hafnarfjordur W3
IBV Vestmannaeyjar W0
W
06.05.26BD
Hafnarfjordur W2
Grindavik/Njardvik W1
W
07.03.26CUP
Hafnarfjordur W11
FHL W1
W
25.02.26CUP
Hafnarfjordur W0
Grindavik/Njardvik W1
L
11.10.25BD
Hafnarfjordur W3
Vikingur Reykjavik W2
W
05.10.25BD
Hafnarfjordur W4
Throttur W0
W
25.09.25BD
Hafnarfjordur W1
Valur W1
D
12.09.25BD
Hafnarfjordur W1
Vikingur Reykjavik W2
L
Throttur W (Away)
22.06.26BD
Thor/KA W2
Throttur W0
L
29.05.26BD
Valur W0
Throttur W1
W
20.05.26BD
Vikingur Reykjavik W1
Throttur W4
W
05.05.26BD
Fram W0
Throttur W3
W
24.04.26BD
Breidablik W2
Throttur W0
L
14.03.26CUP
FHL W0
Throttur W10
W
27.02.26CUP
Stjarnan W5
Throttur W0
L
11.10.25BD
Stjarnan W0
Throttur W1
W
05.10.25BD
Hafnarfjordur W4
Throttur W0
L
12.09.25BD
Thor/KA W0
Throttur W1
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Thursday, 9th July 2026, Hafnarfjordur W host Throttur W at Kaplakriki (Hafnarfjördur) in Iceland Besta deild Women. We recommend Hafnarfjordur W to win as the standout selection.

Hafnarfjordur W arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Throttur W are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 1D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Hafnarfjordur W, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Throttur W's 6, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: hafnarfjordur w to win at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Iceland Besta deild Women preview lives.

The home team strides in on 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Kaplakriki (Hafnarfjördur), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1, priced at @1.33, which the numbers settle at around 50,30,20%. The whistle goes at 8:15 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Hafnarfjordur W vs Throttur W?
Our selection is 1 — Hafnarfjordur W to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 53%.
What is Hafnarfjordur W's current form?
Hafnarfjordur W have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Throttur W been performing recently?
Throttur W have recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Hafnarfjordur W lead with 4 wins versus Throttur W's 6, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
Scroll to Top
18+Gambling can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.