PENDING
Result: 1 — FK Minija to win
DirectWinPredict Lithuania 1 Lyga FK Minija vs Jonava
F

FK Minija

Home Side
W W W W D
8W 1D 1L
VS
4:00 pm
Lithuania 1 Lyga
J
Jonava
Away Side
L W D D L
1W 3D 6L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing FK Minija to win — Saturday, 18th July 2026
Best Odds 1.23
Confidence 51%
Implied Prob 81.3%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Head to Head Record
2
FK Minija
2
Draws
6
Jonava
10
Meetings
40%
BTTS Rate
60%
Over 2.5
2.8
Avg Goals
Against Pick FK Minija won 2 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
FK Minija
Metric
Jonava
1.9
Goals For / Game
0.5
0.6
Goals Against / Game
1.6
40%
Clean Sheet %
10%
8-1-1
W — D — L
1-3-6
Win Rate Comparison
80%
10%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
J0
J1
J2
J3
J4
J5
F0
0-0 10.0%
0-1 5.5%
0-2 1.5%
0-3 0.3%
0-4 0.0%
0-5 0.0%
F1
1-0 17.6%
1-1 9.7%
1-2 2.7%
1-3 0.5%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
F2
2-0 15.4%
2-1 8.4%
2-2 2.3%
2-3 0.4%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
F3
3-0 9.0%
3-1 4.9%
3-2 1.4%
3-3 0.3%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
F4
4-0 3.9%
4-1 2.2%
4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
F5
5-0 1.4%
5-1 0.8%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (17.6%) 2-0 (15.4%) 3-0 (9.0%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · F=Home goals ↓   J=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
FK Minija Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Jonava Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
FK Minija
Overall
8.3
Scoring
6.3
Defence
8.0
Jonava
Overall
1.9
Scoring
1.7
Defence
4.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 33%
Home Win & BTTS No 40%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 4%
Away Win & BTTS No 5%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 37%
Home Win & Under 2.5 37%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 5%
Away Win & Under 2.5 5%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
07.06.26IL
Jonava0
FK Minija0
18.10.25IL
FK Minija0
Jonava1
13.06.25IL
Jonava0
FK Minija0
19.08.23IL
Jonava1
FK Minija2
01.04.23IL
FK Minija3
Jonava0
24.09.21IL
Jonava8
FK Minija0
12.06.21IL
FK Minija1
Jonava2
06.06.20IL
FK Minija1
Jonava2
31.08.19IL
Jonava4
FK Minija1
11.05.19IL
FK Minija0
Jonava2
Recent Form
FK Minija
26.06.26IL
Garliava0
FK Minija1
W
23.06.26CUP
FK Minija2
FK Panevezys1
W
20.06.26IL
Atmosfera0
FK Minija1
W
13.06.26IL
FK Minija3
BFA Vilnius0
W
07.06.26IL
Jonava0
FK Minija0
D
29.05.26IL
Babrungas1
FK Minija0
L
23.05.26IL
FK Minija2
Tauras Taurage1
W
19.05.26CUP
Pempininkai1
FK Minija (AET)4
W
16.05.26IL
Neptunas1
FK Minija3
W
09.05.26IL
FK Minija3
Dainava Alytus1
W
Jonava
27.06.26IL
Hegelmann Litauen 22
Jonava1
L
21.06.26IL
Zalgiris 21
Jonava2
W
12.06.26IL
Jonava1
Atmosfera1
D
07.06.26IL
Jonava0
FK Minija0
D
30.05.26IL
BFA Vilnius1
Jonava0
L
22.05.26IL
Jonava1
Babrungas1
D
16.05.26IL
Tauras Taurage2
Jonava0
L
08.05.26IL
Jonava0
Neptunas1
L
02.05.26IL
Dainava Alytus3
Jonava0
L
29.04.26CUP
Jonava0
FA Siauliai4
L
FK Minija (Home)
23.06.26CUP
FK Minija2
FK Panevezys1
W
13.06.26IL
FK Minija3
BFA Vilnius0
W
23.05.26IL
FK Minija2
Tauras Taurage1
W
09.05.26IL
FK Minija3
Dainava Alytus1
W
25.04.26IL
FK Minija3
Siauliai 21
W
04.04.26IL
FK Minija2
Ekranas1
W
18.03.26IL
FK Minija3
Hegelmann Litauen 20
W
14.03.26IL
FK Minija4
Zalgiris 20
W
09.11.25IL
FK Minija0
BE1 NFA3
L
Jonava (Away)
27.06.26IL
Hegelmann Litauen 22
Jonava1
L
21.06.26IL
Zalgiris 21
Jonava2
W
30.05.26IL
BFA Vilnius1
Jonava0
L
16.05.26IL
Tauras Taurage2
Jonava0
L
02.05.26IL
Dainava Alytus3
Jonava0
L
19.04.26IL
Siauliai 22
Jonava2
D
21.03.26IL
Ekranas1
Jonava2
W
14.03.26IL
Garliava2
Jonava0
L
31.10.25IL
Zalgiris 20
Jonava0
D
18.10.25IL
FK Minija0
Jonava1
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Saturday, 18th July 2026, FK Minija host Jonava at N/A in Lithuania 1 Lyga. We recommend FK Minija to win as the standout selection.

FK Minija arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Jonava are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 3D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour FK Minija, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Jonava's 6, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: fk minija to win at odds of 1.23 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Lithuania 1 Lyga preview lives.

The home team strides in on 4 wins, 1 draw from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at N/A, and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1, priced at @1.23, which the numbers settle at around 50,30,20%. The whistle goes at 4:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for FK Minija vs Jonava?
Our selection is 1 — FK Minija to win, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 51%.
What is FK Minija's current form?
FK Minija have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Jonava been performing recently?
Jonava have recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
FK Minija lead with 2 wins versus Jonava's 6, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
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