PENDING
Result: 1 — Dinamo Zagreb to win
DirectWinPredict UCL Qualifiers Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun
D

Dinamo Zagreb

Home Side
D D W W W
7W 3D 0L
VS
7:00 pm
UCL Qualifiers
T
Thun
Away Side
W D L D W
2W 3D 5L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Dinamo Zagreb to win — Tuesday, 28th July 2026
Best Odds 1.42
Confidence 48%
Implied Prob 70.4%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Dinamo Zagreb to win
1.42
Over 1.5 Goals85% Dinamo Zagreb Clean Sheet60%
Implied Prob
70.4%
Based on 1.42 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-22.4%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
0
Dinamo Zagreb
1
Draws
0
Thun
1
Meetings
100%
BTTS Rate
0%
Over 2.5
2
Avg Goals
Against Pick Dinamo Zagreb won 0 of the last 1 meetings (1 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Dinamo Zagreb
Metric
Thun
2.7
Goals For / Game
1.7
0.5
Goals Against / Game
2.2
60%
Clean Sheet %
0%
7-3-0
W — D — L
2-3-5
Win Rate Comparison
70%
20%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
D0
0-0 2.9%
0-1 3.2%
0-2 1.7%
0-3 0.6%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
D1
1-0 7.0%
1-1 7.7%
1-2 4.3%
1-3 1.6%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
D2
2-0 8.6%
2-1 9.5%
2-2 5.2%
2-3 1.9%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
D3
3-0 7.0%
3-1 7.7%
3-2 4.3%
3-3 1.6%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
D4
4-0 4.3%
4-1 4.7%
4-2 2.6%
4-3 1.0%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
D5
5-0 2.1%
5-1 2.3%
5-2 1.3%
5-3 0.5%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.5%) 2-0 (8.6%) 3-1 (7.7%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · D=Home goals ↓   T=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Dinamo Zagreb Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Thun Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Dinamo Zagreb
Overall
7.9
Scoring
9.0
Defence
8.3
Thun
Overall
2.9
Scoring
5.7
Defence
2.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 35%
Home Win & BTTS No 23%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 29%
Home Win & Under 2.5 29%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 13%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 9%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
21.07.26CL
Thun1
Din. Zagreb1
Recent Form
Dinamo Zagreb
21.07.26CL
Thun1
Din. Zagreb1
D
14.07.26CF
Din. Zagreb0
LNZ Cherkasy0
D
08.07.26CF
Din. Zagreb4
Koper2
W
02.07.26CF
Grosuplje0
Din. Zagreb9
W
26.06.26CF
Radomlje0
Din. Zagreb3
W
23.05.26HNL
Din. Zagreb0
Lok. Zagreb0
D
17.05.26HNL
Slaven Belupo1
Din. Zagreb4
W
13.05.26CUP
Din. Zagreb2
Rijeka0
W
09.05.26HNL
Din. Zagreb2
Hajduk Split0
W
02.05.26HNL
Gorica1
Din. Zagreb2
W
Thun
25.07.26SL
Luzern1
Thun3
W
21.07.26CL
Thun1
Din. Zagreb1
D
11.07.26CF
Thun1
Mannheim2
L
11.07.26CF
Thun1
Elversberg1
D
04.07.26CF
Thun6
Xamax2
W
17.05.26SL
St. Gallen1
Thun1
D
14.05.26SL
Thun3
Young Boys8
L
10.05.26SL
Sion2
Thun0
L
02.05.26SL
Basel3
Thun1
L
25.04.26SL
Thun0
Lugano1
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Tuesday, 28th July 2026, Dinamo Zagreb host Thun at Stadion Maksimir (Zagreb) in UCL Qualifiers. We recommend Dinamo Zagreb to win as the standout selection.

Dinamo Zagreb arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Thun are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 3D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Dinamo Zagreb, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Thun's 0, with 1 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: dinamo zagreb to win at odds of 1.42 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this UCL Qualifiers preview lives.

The home team strides in on 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Stadion Maksimir (Zagreb), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1, priced at @1.42, which the numbers settle at around 50,30,20%. The whistle goes at 7:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun?
Our selection is 1 — Dinamo Zagreb to win, priced at approximately 1.42. Tip confidence rating: 48%.
What is Dinamo Zagreb's current form?
Dinamo Zagreb have won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Thun been performing recently?
Thun have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Dinamo Zagreb lead with 0 wins versus Thun's 0, with 1 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
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