PENDING
Result: 1 — Chengdu Rongcheng to win
DirectWinPredict China Super League Chengdu Rongcheng vs Chongqing Tonglianglong
C

Chengdu Rongcheng

Home Side
D W W W L
7W 1D 2L
VS
1:00 pm
China Super League
C
Chongqing Tonglianglong
Away Side
L W W L W
3W 3D 4L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Chengdu Rongcheng to win — Saturday, 11th July 2026
Best Odds 1.37
Confidence 48%
Implied Prob 73%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Head to Head Record
0
Chengdu Rongcheng
2
Draws
0
Chongqing Tonglianglong
2
Meetings
50%
BTTS Rate
50%
Over 2.5
3
Avg Goals
Against Pick Chengdu Rongcheng won 0 of the last 2 meetings (2 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Chengdu Rongcheng
Metric
Chongqing Tonglianglong
1.8
Goals For / Game
1.1
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.3
40%
Clean Sheet %
40%
7-1-2
W — D — L
3-3-4
Win Rate Comparison
70%
30%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
C0
0-0 7.8%
0-1 7.8%
0-2 3.9%
0-3 1.3%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
C1
1-0 12.1%
1-1 12.1%
1-2 6.1%
1-3 2.0%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
C2
2-0 9.4%
2-1 9.4%
2-2 4.7%
2-3 1.6%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
C3
3-0 4.9%
3-1 4.9%
3-2 2.4%
3-3 0.8%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
C4
4-0 1.9%
4-1 1.9%
4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
C5
5-0 0.6%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (12.1%) 2-0 (9.4%) 2-1 (9.4%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · C=Home goals ↓   C=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Chengdu Rongcheng Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Chongqing Tonglianglong Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Chengdu Rongcheng
Overall
7.3
Scoring
6.0
Defence
7.0
Chongqing Tonglianglong
Overall
3.9
Scoring
3.7
Defence
5.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Home Win & BTTS No 32%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 26%
Home Win & Under 2.5 32%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 11%
Away Win & Under 2.5 14%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
21.03.26SL
Chongqing Tonglianglong3
Chengdu Rongcheng3
23.06.23FAC
Chongqing Tonglianglong0
Chengdu Rongcheng (Pen 4 - 2)0
Recent Form
Chengdu Rongcheng
05.07.26SL
Qingdao Hainiu1
Chengdu Rongcheng1
D
27.06.26SL
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng2
Chengdu Rongcheng3
W
20.06.26FAC
Shanghai Zetian0
Chengdu Rongcheng4
W
30.05.26SL
Chengdu Rongcheng1
Shandong Taishan0
W
23.05.26SL
Dalian Yingbo2
Chengdu Rongcheng0
L
19.05.26SL
Chengdu Rongcheng0
Shanghai Port1
L
15.05.26SL
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger1
Chengdu Rongcheng2
W
09.05.26SL
Chengdu Rongcheng3
Henan Songshan Longmen0
W
05.05.26SL
Liaoning Tieren0
Chengdu Rongcheng1
W
01.05.26SL
Shanghai Shenhua2
Chengdu Rongcheng3
W
Chongqing Tonglianglong
04.07.26SL
Liaoning Tieren3
Chongqing Tonglianglong1
L
27.06.26SL
Chongqing Tonglianglong1
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger0
W
20.06.26FAC
Ningbo Professional0
Chongqing Tonglianglong2
W
30.05.26SL
Chongqing Tonglianglong2
Beijing Guoan3
L
24.05.26SL
Qingdao Hainiu0
Chongqing Tonglianglong1
W
20.05.26SL
Chongqing Tonglianglong0
Yunnan Yukun0
D
16.05.26SL
Shandong Taishan3
Chongqing Tonglianglong1
L
09.05.26SL
Shanghai Shenhua2
Chongqing Tonglianglong2
D
05.05.26SL
Chongqing Tonglianglong1
Henan Songshan Longmen1
D
01.05.26SL
Dalian Yingbo1
Chongqing Tonglianglong0
L
Chengdu Rongcheng (Home)
30.05.26SL
Chengdu Rongcheng1
Shandong Taishan0
W
19.05.26SL
Chengdu Rongcheng0
Shanghai Port1
L
09.05.26SL
Chengdu Rongcheng3
Henan Songshan Longmen0
W
25.04.26SL
Chengdu Rongcheng4
Zhejiang Professional0
W
21.04.26SL
Chengdu Rongcheng2
Yunnan Yukun1
W
03.04.26SL
Chengdu Rongcheng5
Qingdao West Coast1
W
15.03.26SL
Chengdu Rongcheng1
Qingdao Hainiu0
W
06.03.26SL
Chengdu Rongcheng5
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1
W
10.02.26CL
Chengdu Rongcheng0
Buriram1
L
25.11.25CL
Chengdu Rongcheng1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima1
D
Chongqing Tonglianglong (Away)
04.07.26SL
Liaoning Tieren3
Chongqing Tonglianglong1
L
20.06.26FAC
Ningbo Professional0
Chongqing Tonglianglong2
W
24.05.26SL
Qingdao Hainiu0
Chongqing Tonglianglong1
W
16.05.26SL
Shandong Taishan3
Chongqing Tonglianglong1
L
09.05.26SL
Shanghai Shenhua2
Chongqing Tonglianglong2
D
01.05.26SL
Dalian Yingbo1
Chongqing Tonglianglong0
L
21.04.26SL
Shanghai Port1
Chongqing Tonglianglong2
W
05.04.26SL
Zhejiang Professional0
Chongqing Tonglianglong1
W
07.03.26SL
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger0
Chongqing Tonglianglong0
D
08.11.25L1
Shanghai Jiading Huilong0
Chongqing Tonglianglong2
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Saturday, 11th July 2026, Chengdu Rongcheng host Chongqing Tonglianglong at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park (Chengdu) in China Super League. We recommend Chengdu Rongcheng to win as the standout selection.

Chengdu Rongcheng arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Chongqing Tonglianglong are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 3D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Chengdu Rongcheng, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Chongqing Tonglianglong's 0, with 2 draws from 2 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: chengdu rongcheng to win at odds of 1.37 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this China Super League preview lives.

The home team strides in on 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park (Chengdu), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1, priced at @1.37, which the numbers settle at around 50,30,20%. The whistle goes at 1:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Chengdu Rongcheng vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
Our selection is 1 — Chengdu Rongcheng to win, priced at approximately 1.37. Tip confidence rating: 48%.
What is Chengdu Rongcheng's current form?
Chengdu Rongcheng have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Chongqing Tonglianglong been performing recently?
Chongqing Tonglianglong have recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Chengdu Rongcheng lead with 0 wins versus Chongqing Tonglianglong's 0, with 2 draws across 2 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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