WON
Result: Burnley 0-1 Man City
DirectWinPredict Premier League Burnley vs Man City
B

Burnley

Home Side
L L L L L
1W 2D 7L
VS
0-1
Premier League
M
Man City
Away Side
W W W W L
6W 2D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
2
Backing Man City to win — Wednesday, 22nd April 2026
Best Odds 1.17
Confidence 70%
Implied Prob 85.5%
H
20%
D
20%
A
60%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
2 — Man City to win
1.17
Over 1.5 Goals90%
Implied Prob
85.5%
Based on 1.17 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-15.5%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
0
Burnley
0
Draws
10
Man City
10
Meetings
20%
BTTS Rate
70%
Over 2.5
3.8
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Man City won 10 of 10 meetings.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Burnley
Metric
Man City
1
Goals For / Game
1.9
2.2
Goals Against / Game
1
10%
Clean Sheet %
40%
1-2-7
W — D — L
6-2-2
Win Rate Comparison
10%
60%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
B0
0-0 4.7%
0-1 9.7%
0-2 10.0%
0-3 6.8%
0-4 3.5%
0-5 1.4%
B1
1-0 4.7%
1-1 9.7%
1-2 10.0%
1-3 6.8%
1-4 3.5%
1-5 1.4%
B2
2-0 2.4%
2-1 4.9%
2-2 5.0%
2-3 3.4%
2-4 1.7%
2-5 0.7%
B3
3-0 0.8%
3-1 1.6%
3-2 1.7%
3-3 1.1%
3-4 0.6%
3-5 0.2%
B4
4-0 0.2%
4-1 0.4%
4-2 0.4%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
B5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 0-2 (10.0%) 1-2 (10.0%) 0-1 (9.7%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · B=Home goals ↓   M=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Burnley Win
20%
5
Draw
20%
5
Man City Win
60%
1.67
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Burnley
Overall
1.6
Scoring
3.3
Defence
2.7
Man City
Overall
6.6
Scoring
6.3
Defence
6.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 6%
Home Win & BTTS No 5%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 37%
Away Win & BTTS No 30%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 7%
Home Win & Under 2.5 4%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 40%
Away Win & Under 2.5 27%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
27.09.25PL
Manchester City5
Burnley1
31.01.24PL
Manchester City3
Burnley1
11.08.23PL
Burnley0
Manchester City3
18.03.23FAC
Manchester City6
Burnley0
02.04.22PL
Burnley0
Manchester City2
16.10.21PL
Manchester City2
Burnley0
03.02.21PL
Burnley0
Manchester City2
28.11.20PL
Manchester City5
Burnley0
30.09.20EFL
Burnley0
Manchester City3
22.06.20PL
Manchester City5
Burnley0
Recent Form
Burnley
19.04.26PL
Nottingham4
Burnley1
L
11.04.26PL
Burnley0
Brighton2
L
21.03.26PL
Fulham3
Burnley1
L
14.03.26PL
Burnley0
Bournemouth0
D
03.03.26PL
Everton2
Burnley0
L
28.02.26PL
Burnley3
Brentford4
L
21.02.26PL
Chelsea1
Burnley1
D
14.02.26FAC
Burnley1
Mansfield2
L
11.02.26PL
Crystal Palace2
Burnley3
W
07.02.26PL
Burnley0
West Ham2
L
Man City
19.04.26PL
Manchester City2
Arsenal1
W
12.04.26PL
Chelsea0
Manchester City3
W
04.04.26FAC
Manchester City4
Liverpool0
W
22.03.26EFL
Arsenal0
Manchester City2
W
17.03.26CL
Manchester City1
Real Madrid2
L
14.03.26PL
West Ham1
Manchester City1
D
11.03.26CL
Real Madrid3
Manchester City0
L
07.03.26FAC
Newcastle1
Manchester City3
W
04.03.26PL
Manchester City2
Nottingham2
D
28.02.26PL
Leeds0
Manchester City1
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Wednesday, 22nd April 2026, Burnley host Man City in Premier League. We recommend Man City to win as the standout selection.

Burnley arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Man City are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 2D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Burnley, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Man City's 10, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 20% of those meetings.

Our verdict: man city to win at odds of 1.17 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Premier League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 2, and it looks even better when you see the @1.17 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Burnley vs Man City?
Our selection is 2 — Man City to win, priced at approximately 1.17. Tip confidence rating: 70%.
What is Burnley's current form?
Burnley have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches.
How has Man City been performing recently?
Man City have recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Burnley lead with 0 wins versus Man City's 10, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.
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