PENDING
Result: 1 — Bahia W to win
DirectWinPredict Brasileiro Women Bahia W vs Botafogo W
B

Bahia W

Home Side
W W D W D
6W 3D 1L
VS
11:00 pm
Brasileiro Women
B
Botafogo W
Away Side
L L W L L
1W 1D 8L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Bahia W to win — Monday, 27th July 2026
Best Odds 1.32
Confidence 45%
Implied Prob 75.8%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Bahia W to win
1.32
Over 1.5 Goals80% BTTS — No65%
Implied Prob
75.8%
Based on 1.32 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-30.8%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
1
Bahia W
2
Draws
2
Botafogo W
5
Meetings
40%
BTTS Rate
20%
Over 2.5
1.4
Avg Goals
Against Pick Bahia W won 1 of the last 5 meetings (2 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Bahia W
Metric
Botafogo W
1.7
Goals For / Game
0.5
0.9
Goals Against / Game
2
40%
Clean Sheet %
10%
6-3-1
W — D — L
1-1-8
Win Rate Comparison
60%
10%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
B0
0-0 7.8%
0-1 5.5%
0-2 1.9%
0-3 0.5%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
B1
1-0 14.5%
1-1 10.1%
1-2 3.5%
1-3 0.8%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
B2
2-0 13.4%
2-1 9.4%
2-2 3.3%
2-3 0.8%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
B3
3-0 8.2%
3-1 5.8%
3-2 2.0%
3-3 0.5%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
B4
4-0 3.8%
4-1 2.7%
4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
B5
5-0 1.4%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (14.5%) 2-0 (13.4%) 2-1 (9.4%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · B=Home goals ↓   B=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Bahia W Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Botafogo W Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Bahia W
Overall
6.9
Scoring
5.7
Defence
7.0
Botafogo W
Overall
1.3
Scoring
1.7
Defence
3.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 23%
Home Win & BTTS No 44%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 14%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 4%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 34%
Home Win & Under 2.5 34%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 6%
Away Win & Under 2.5 6%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
10.07.22BA2
Bahia W1
Botafogo RJ0
02.07.22BA2
Botafogo RJ W1
Bahia0
18.04.21BA1
Botafogo RJ W0
Bahia0
17.01.21BA2
Bahia W1
Botafogo RJ2
10.01.21BA2
Botafogo RJ W1
Bahia1
Recent Form
Bahia W
22.07.26COP
Itabirito W0
Bahia W1
W
27.05.26COP
Planalto EC W0
Bahia W1
W
23.05.26BA1
Fluminense W3
Bahia W3
D
16.05.26BA1
Bahia W3
Internacional W0
W
09.05.26BA1
Mixto W1
Bahia W1
D
02.05.26BA1
Bahia W0
Palmeiras W0
D
28.04.26BA1
Bahia W0
Gremio W2
L
21.04.26BA1
Flamengo W1
Bahia W3
W
01.04.26BA1
Bahia W3
America Mineiro W1
W
28.03.26BA1
Bragantino W1
Bahia W2
W
Botafogo W
22.07.26COP
Botafogo RJ W0
Bragantino W2
L
17.07.26BA1
Vitoria W2
Botafogo RJ W0
L
27.05.26COP
Botafogo RJ W3
Juventude W0
W
24.05.26BA1
Botafogo RJ W0
America Mineiro W3
L
19.05.26BA1
Palmeiras W3
Botafogo RJ W0
L
11.05.26BA1
Internacional W1
Botafogo RJ W0
L
03.05.26BA1
Botafogo RJ W0
Bragantino W3
L
28.04.26BA1
Atletico-MG W2
Botafogo RJ W0
L
04.04.26BA1
Botafogo RJ W1
Santos W1
D
27.03.26BA1
Botafogo RJ W1
Corinthians W3
L
Bahia W (Home)
16.05.26BA1
Bahia W3
Internacional W0
W
02.05.26BA1
Bahia W0
Palmeiras W0
D
28.04.26BA1
Bahia W0
Gremio W2
L
01.04.26BA1
Bahia W3
America Mineiro W1
W
21.03.26BA1
Bahia W3
Santos W1
W
17.03.26BA1
Bahia W3
Vitoria W2
W
14.02.26BA1
Bahia W0
Cruzeiro W2
L
08.11.25BAI
Bahia W2
Vitoria W0
W
25.10.25BAI
Bahia W14
Lusaca W2
W
15.10.25BAI
Bahia W4
Juazeirense W0
W
Botafogo W (Away)
17.07.26BA1
Vitoria W2
Botafogo RJ W0
L
19.05.26BA1
Palmeiras W3
Botafogo RJ W0
L
11.05.26BA1
Internacional W1
Botafogo RJ W0
L
28.04.26BA1
Atletico-MG W2
Botafogo RJ W0
L
21.03.26BA1
Mixto W2
Botafogo RJ W1
L
08.03.26CPW
Vasco W2
Botafogo RJ W1
L
21.02.26BA1
Ferroviaria W2
Botafogo RJ W1
L
04.02.26CPW
Fluminense W1
Botafogo RJ W0
L
08.11.25CAR
Fluminense W2
Botafogo RJ W1
L
13.10.25CAR
Fluminense W2
Botafogo RJ W0
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Monday, 27th July 2026, Bahia W host Botafogo W at Estadio Alberto Oliveira (Feira de Santana) in Brasileiro Women. We recommend Bahia W to win as the standout selection.

Bahia W arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Botafogo W are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 1D 8L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Bahia W, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Botafogo W's 2, with 2 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: bahia w to win at odds of 1.32 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Brasileiro Women preview lives.

The home team strides in on 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Estadio Alberto Oliveira (Feira de Santana), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 1 win, 4 losses from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1, priced at @1.32, which the numbers settle at around 50,30,20%. The whistle goes at 11:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Bahia W vs Botafogo W?
Our selection is 1 — Bahia W to win, priced at approximately 1.32. Tip confidence rating: 45%.
What is Bahia W's current form?
Bahia W have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Botafogo W been performing recently?
Botafogo W have recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Bahia W lead with 1 wins versus Botafogo W's 2, with 2 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
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