PENDING
Result: 2 — Riga to win
DirectWinPredict Latvia Virsliga Auda vs Riga
A

Auda

Home Side
D W L D W
5W 2D 3L
VS
4:00 pm
Latvia Virsliga
R
Riga
Away Side
D W W W W
8W 2D 0L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
2
Backing Riga to win — Monday, 29th June 2026
Best Odds 1.31
Confidence 64%
Implied Prob 76.3%
H
20%
D
30%
A
50%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
2 — Riga to win
1.31
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals85%
Implied Prob
76.3%
Based on 1.31 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-12.3%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
1
Auda
2
Draws
7
Riga
10
Meetings
80%
BTTS Rate
90%
Over 2.5
3.9
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Riga won 7 of 10 meetings.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Auda
Metric
Riga
1.8
Goals For / Game
2.7
1.1
Goals Against / Game
0.7
50%
Clean Sheet %
40%
5-2-3
W — D — L
8-2-0
Win Rate Comparison
50%
80%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
R0
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
A0
0-0 4.3%
0-1 8.1%
0-2 7.7%
0-3 4.9%
0-4 2.3%
0-5 0.9%
A1
1-0 5.4%
1-1 10.2%
1-2 9.7%
1-3 6.1%
1-4 2.9%
1-5 1.1%
A2
2-0 3.4%
2-1 6.4%
2-2 6.0%
2-3 3.8%
2-4 1.8%
2-5 0.7%
A3
3-0 1.4%
3-1 2.7%
3-2 2.5%
3-3 1.6%
3-4 0.8%
3-5 0.3%
A4
4-0 0.4%
4-1 0.8%
4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
A5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-2 (9.7%) 0-1 (8.1%) 0-2 (7.7%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · A=Home goals ↓   R=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Auda Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Riga Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Auda
Overall
5.6
Scoring
6.0
Defence
6.3
Riga
Overall
8.6
Scoring
9.0
Defence
7.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Home Win & BTTS No 17%
Draw & BTTS Yes 7%
Draw & BTTS No 7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 27%
Away Win & BTTS No 27%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 21%
Home Win & Under 2.5 12%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 35%
Away Win & Under 2.5 19%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
12.05.26VIR
Riga FC4
Auda1
20.03.26VIR
Auda1
Riga FC2
17.02.26SC
Riga FC4
Auda1
29.10.25LC
Riga FC1
Auda2
13.09.25VIR
Riga FC6
Auda0
27.06.25VIR
Auda1
Riga FC3
05.05.25VIR
Auda1
Riga FC3
10.03.25VIR
Riga FC2
Auda2
14.09.24VIR
Auda2
Riga FC2
26.06.24VIR
Riga FC1
Auda0
Recent Form
Auda
25.06.26VIR
Grobina0
Auda0
D
21.06.26VIR
Super Nova0
Auda2
W
17.06.26VIR
Tukums 20002
Auda1
L
13.06.26VIR
Auda1
Jelgava1
D
30.05.26VIR
Auda2
Ogre United0
W
26.05.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils0
Auda1
W
22.05.26VIR
Auda3
FK Liepaja1
W
17.05.26VIR
Auda0
RFS3
L
12.05.26VIR
Riga FC4
Auda1
L
07.05.26VIR
Auda7
Grobina0
W
Riga
25.06.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils0
Riga FC0
D
21.06.26VIR
Riga FC4
FK Liepaja0
W
17.06.26VIR
Riga FC2
RFS1
W
13.06.26VIR
Ogre United1
Riga FC4
W
29.05.26VIR
Riga FC2
Grobina0
W
24.05.26VIR
Riga FC3
Super Nova0
W
20.05.26VIR
Tukums 20001
Riga FC3
W
16.05.26VIR
Riga FC2
Jelgava2
D
12.05.26VIR
Riga FC4
Auda1
W
08.05.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils1
Riga FC3
W
Auda (Home)
13.06.26VIR
Auda1
Jelgava1
D
30.05.26VIR
Auda2
Ogre United0
W
22.05.26VIR
Auda3
FK Liepaja1
W
17.05.26VIR
Auda0
RFS3
L
07.05.26VIR
Auda7
Grobina0
W
26.04.26VIR
Auda2
Tukums 20001
W
12.04.26VIR
Auda2
BFC Daugavpils3
L
20.03.26VIR
Auda1
Riga FC2
L
08.03.26VIR
Auda2
Super Nova1
W
10.02.26CF
Auda1
Dinamo Tbilisi0
W
Riga (Away)
25.06.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils0
Riga FC0
D
13.06.26VIR
Ogre United1
Riga FC4
W
20.05.26VIR
Tukums 20001
Riga FC3
W
08.05.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils1
Riga FC3
W
28.04.26VIR
RFS3
Riga FC3
D
18.04.26VIR
Grobina0
Riga FC3
W
14.04.26VIR
Super Nova1
Riga FC4
W
04.04.26VIR
Jelgava0
Riga FC8
W
27.03.26CF
Legia3
Riga FC1
L
20.03.26VIR
Auda1
Riga FC2
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Monday, 29th June 2026, Auda host Riga at Skonto stadions (Riga) in Latvia Virsliga. We recommend Riga to win as the standout selection.

Auda arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Riga are travelling well, with a record of 8W 2D 0L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Auda, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Riga's 7, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 80% of those meetings.

Our verdict: riga to win at odds of 1.31 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Latvia Virsliga preview lives.

The home team strides in on 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Skonto stadions (Riga), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 4 wins, 1 draw from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 2, priced at @1.31, which the numbers settle at around 90%. The whistle goes at 4:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Auda vs Riga?
Our selection is 2 — Riga to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 64%.
What is Auda's current form?
Auda have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Riga been performing recently?
Riga have recorded 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Auda lead with 1 wins versus Riga's 7, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 80%.
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