PENDING
Result: 1 — Levski Sofia to win
DirectWinPredict Bulgaria EFBET League Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia
L

Levski Sofia

Home Side
D W W W W
7W 3D 0L
VS
5:00 pm
Bulgaria EFBET League
S
Septemvri Sofia
Away Side
L D L W L
6W 2D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Levski Sofia to win — Saturday, 1st August 2026
Best Odds 1.23
Confidence 64%
Implied Prob 81.3%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Levski Sofia to win
1.23
Over 1.5 Goals85%
Implied Prob
81.3%
Based on 1.23 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-17.3%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
8
Levski Sofia
2
Draws
0
Septemvri Sofia
10
Meetings
50%
BTTS Rate
60%
Over 2.5
3.5
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Levski Sofia won 8 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Levski Sofia
Metric
Septemvri Sofia
2.8
Goals For / Game
1.6
0.6
Goals Against / Game
0.9
50%
Clean Sheet %
30%
7-3-0
W — D — L
6-2-2
Win Rate Comparison
70%
60%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
L0
0-0 5.2%
0-1 5.8%
0-2 3.2%
0-3 1.2%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
L1
1-0 9.7%
1-1 10.7%
1-2 5.9%
1-3 2.2%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
L2
2-0 9.0%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.4%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
L3
3-0 5.5%
3-1 6.1%
3-2 3.3%
3-3 1.2%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
L4
4-0 2.6%
4-1 2.8%
4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
L5
5-0 1.0%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.9%) 1-0 (9.7%) 2-0 (9.0%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · L=Home goals ↓   S=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Levski Sofia Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Septemvri Sofia Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Levski Sofia
Overall
7.9
Scoring
9.3
Defence
8.0
Septemvri Sofia
Overall
6.6
Scoring
5.3
Defence
7.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 25%
Home Win & BTTS No 20%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 21%
Away Win & BTTS No 18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 27%
Home Win & Under 2.5 18%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 23%
Away Win & Under 2.5 16%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
30.11.251L
Levski Sofia7
Septemvri Sofia0
27.07.251L
Septemvri Sofia1
Levski Sofia2
21.04.251L
Septemvri Sofia0
Levski Sofia1
09.11.241L
Levski Sofia2
Septemvri Sofia3
29.06.24CF
Levski Sofia5
Septemvri Sofia0
04.05.231L
Levski Sofia2
Septemvri Sofia0
07.02.23CF
Septemvri Sofia1
Levski Sofia4
16.10.221L
Septemvri Sofia0
Levski Sofia0
18.06.22CF
Levski Sofia1
Septemvri Sofia1
30.03.22CF
Levski Sofia3
Septemvri Sofia2
Recent Form
Levski Sofia
29.07.26CL
Univ. Craiova2
Levski Sofia2
D
25.07.261L
Lok. Sofia1
Levski Sofia2
W
22.07.26CL
Levski Sofia1
Univ. Craiova0
W
17.07.261L
Levski Sofia2
Dunav Ruse1
W
14.07.26CL
Levski Sofia4
Borac Banja Luka0
W
07.07.26CL
Borac Banja Luka1
Levski Sofia1
D
30.06.26CF
Levski Sofia5
Radnik0
W
27.06.26CF
Levski Sofia1
Botev Vratsa1
D
23.06.26CF
Levski Sofia6
Etar0
W
19.06.26CF
Levski Sofia4
Akademik Svishtov0
W
Septemvri Sofia
26.07.261L
Lok. Plovdiv2
Septemvri Sofia1
L
18.07.261L
Septemvri Sofia1
Arda1
D
10.07.26CF
Ludogorets1
Septemvri Sofia0
L
07.07.26CF
Septemvri Sofia2
Hebar1
W
04.07.26CF
Septemvri Sofia2
Slavia Sofia3
L
01.07.26CF
Septemvri Sofia2
Vihren0
W
27.06.26CF
Septemvri Sofia3
Marek0
W
28.05.261L
Septemvri Sofia2
Yantra Gabrovo1
W
22.05.261L
Septemvri Sofia1
Dobrudzha1
D
18.05.261L
Beroe0
Septemvri Sofia1
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Saturday, 1st August 2026, Levski Sofia host Septemvri Sofia at Vivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov (Sofia) in Bulgaria EFBET League. We recommend Levski Sofia to win as the standout selection.

Levski Sofia arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Septemvri Sofia are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 2D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Levski Sofia, who lead the head-to-head with 8 wins to Septemvri Sofia's 0, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: levski sofia to win at odds of 1.23 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Bulgaria EFBET League preview lives.

The home team strides in on 4 wins, 1 draw from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Vivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov (Sofia), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1, priced at @1.23, which the numbers settle at around 50,30,20%. The whistle goes at 5:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia?
Our selection is 1 — Levski Sofia to win, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 64%.
What is Levski Sofia's current form?
Levski Sofia have won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Septemvri Sofia been performing recently?
Septemvri Sofia have recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Levski Sofia lead with 8 wins versus Septemvri Sofia's 0, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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