PENDING
Result: Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
DirectWinPredict Norway Eliteserien Lillestrom vs Viking
L

Lillestrom

Home Side
W W W L L
5W 0D 5L
VS
6:00 pm
Norway Eliteserien
V
Viking
Away Side
W L D W W
8W 1D 1L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals — Wednesday, 22nd July 2026
Best Odds 1.11
Confidence 90%
Implied Prob 90.1%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.11
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals90%
Implied Prob
90.1%
Based on 1.11 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-0.1%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
2
Lillestrom
1
Draws
7
Viking
10
Meetings
60%
BTTS Rate
80%
Over 2.5
3.7
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 1.5 in 90% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Lillestrom
Metric
Viking
1.7
Goals For / Game
2.6
1.3
Goals Against / Game
1
20%
Clean Sheet %
30%
5-0-5
W — D — L
8-1-1
Win Rate Comparison
50%
80%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
V0
V1
V2
V3
V4
V5
L0
0-0 3.7%
0-1 7.2%
0-2 7.0%
0-3 4.6%
0-4 2.2%
0-5 0.9%
L1
1-0 5.0%
1-1 9.7%
1-2 9.5%
1-3 6.2%
1-4 3.0%
1-5 1.2%
L2
2-0 3.4%
2-1 6.6%
2-2 6.4%
2-3 4.2%
2-4 2.0%
2-5 0.8%
L3
3-0 1.5%
3-1 3.0%
3-2 2.9%
3-3 1.9%
3-4 0.9%
3-5 0.4%
L4
4-0 0.5%
4-1 1.0%
4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
L5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-1 (9.7%) 1-2 (9.5%) 0-1 (7.2%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · L=Home goals ↓   V=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Lillestrom
Overall
5.0
Scoring
5.7
Defence
5.7
Viking
Overall
8.3
Scoring
8.7
Defence
6.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Home Win & BTTS No 17%
Draw & BTTS Yes 2%
Draw & BTTS No 2%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 32%
Away Win & BTTS No 27%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 24%
Home Win & Under 2.5 13%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 1%
Away Win & Over 2.5 38%
Away Win & Under 2.5 21%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
29.09.24ELI
Lillestrom1
Viking4
16.05.24ELI
Viking1
Lillestrom4
13.08.23ELI
Lillestrom1
Viking3
15.04.23ELI
Viking2
Lillestrom0
26.02.23CF
Viking2
Lillestrom2
09.10.22ELI
Viking0
Lillestrom3
10.07.22ELI
Lillestrom0
Viking1
23.10.21ELI
Viking5
Lillestrom1
24.05.21ELI
Lillestrom1
Viking3
03.11.19ELI
Viking3
Lillestrom0
Recent Form
Lillestrom
18.07.26ELI
Lillestrom2
KFUM Oslo1
W
11.07.26ELI
Fredrikstad0
Lillestrom2
W
03.07.26CF
Lillestrom3
Sarpsborg 081
W
26.06.26CF
Lillestrom2
Degerfors3
L
20.06.26CF
Midtjylland1
Lillestrom0
L
25.05.26ELI
HamKam2
Lillestrom0
L
20.05.26ELI
Lillestrom1
Kristiansund2
L
16.05.26ELI
Lillestrom3
Sandefjord1
W
10.05.26ELI
Rosenborg2
Lillestrom0
L
03.05.26ELI
Lillestrom4
Sarpsborg 080
W
Viking
18.07.26ELI
Viking2
Sandefjord1
W
12.07.26ELI
Sarpsborg 081
Viking0
L
03.07.26CF
Sonderjyske1
Viking1
D
24.05.26ELI
Kristiansund1
Viking2
W
16.05.26ELI
Viking6
Start3
W
10.05.26ELI
KFUM Oslo0
Viking2
W
01.05.26ELI
Viking3
Rosenborg0
W
25.04.26ELI
Fredrikstad1
Viking2
W
18.04.26ELI
Viking3
Brann2
W
11.04.26ELI
Viking5
Bodo/Glimt0
W
Lillestrom (Home)
18.07.26ELI
Lillestrom2
KFUM Oslo1
W
03.07.26CF
Lillestrom3
Sarpsborg 081
W
26.06.26CF
Lillestrom2
Degerfors3
L
20.05.26ELI
Lillestrom1
Kristiansund2
L
16.05.26ELI
Lillestrom3
Sandefjord1
W
03.05.26ELI
Lillestrom4
Sarpsborg 080
W
26.04.26ELI
Lillestrom0
Bodo/Glimt2
L
11.04.26ELI
Lillestrom3
Start1
W
24.02.26CF
Lillestrom2
Kongsvinger4
L
17.02.26CF
Lillestrom7
Haugesund1
W
Viking (Away)
12.07.26ELI
Sarpsborg 081
Viking0
L
03.07.26CF
Sonderjyske1
Viking1
D
24.05.26ELI
Kristiansund1
Viking2
W
10.05.26ELI
KFUM Oslo0
Viking2
W
25.04.26ELI
Fredrikstad1
Viking2
W
06.04.26ELI
Valerenga0
Viking1
W
14.03.26ELI
HamKam2
Viking1
L
07.03.26NMC
Bjarg0
Viking3
W
20.02.26CF
Tromso1
Viking1
D
17.02.26CF
Molde2
Viking2
D
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Wednesday, 22nd July 2026, Lillestrom host Viking at Åråsen Stadion (Lillestrøm) in Norway Eliteserien. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.

Lillestrom arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Viking are travelling well, with a record of 8W 1D 1L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Lillestrom, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Viking's 7, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.11 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Norway Eliteserien preview lives.

The home team strides in on 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Åråsen Stadion (Lillestrøm), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is Over 1.5, priced at @1.11, which the numbers settle at around 90%. The whistle goes at 6:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Lillestrom vs Viking?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.11. Tip confidence rating: 90%.
What is Lillestrom's current form?
Lillestrom have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Viking been performing recently?
Viking have recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Lillestrom lead with 2 wins versus Viking's 7, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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