PENDING
Result: 1X — U Catolica to win or draw
DirectWinPredict Ecuador Liga Pro U Catolica vs Mushuc Runa
U

U Catolica

Home Side
L W W D L
4W 1D 5L
VS
10:30 am
Ecuador Liga Pro
M
Mushuc Runa
Away Side
L D D L L
3W 2D 5L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1X
Backing U Catolica to win or draw — Monday, 6th July 2026
Best Odds 1.13
Confidence 80%
Implied Prob 88.5%
Head to Head Record
5
U Catolica
3
Draws
2
Mushuc Runa
10
Meetings
70%
BTTS Rate
50%
Over 2.5
2.7
Avg Goals
Neutral Data Insufficient H2H data.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
U Catolica
Metric
Mushuc Runa
1.7
Goals For / Game
1.1
1.4
Goals Against / Game
1.3
20%
Clean Sheet %
30%
4-1-5
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate Comparison
40%
30%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
U0
0-0 6.4%
0-1 8.0%
0-2 5.0%
0-3 2.1%
0-4 0.7%
0-5 0.2%
U1
1-0 9.6%
1-1 12.0%
1-2 7.5%
1-3 3.1%
1-4 1.0%
1-5 0.2%
U2
2-0 7.2%
2-1 9.0%
2-2 5.6%
2-3 2.3%
2-4 0.7%
2-5 0.2%
U3
3-0 3.6%
3-1 4.5%
3-2 2.8%
3-3 1.2%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
U4
4-0 1.4%
4-1 1.7%
4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
U5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-1 (12.0%) 1-0 (9.6%) 2-1 (9.0%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · U=Home goals ↓   M=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
U Catolica
Overall
4.3
Scoring
5.7
Defence
5.3
Mushuc Runa
Overall
3.6
Scoring
3.7
Defence
5.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 24%
Home Win & BTTS No 24%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Away Win & BTTS No 18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 28%
Home Win & Under 2.5 19%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 21%
Away Win & Under 2.5 14%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
01.03.26LP
Mushuc Runa0
U. Catolica0
05.07.25LP
Mushuc Runa1
U. Catolica1
09.03.25LP
U. Catolica1
Mushuc Runa1
31.08.24LP
U. Catolica5
Mushuc Runa1
22.05.24LP
Mushuc Runa2
U. Catolica1
26.11.23LP
Mushuc Runa0
U. Catolica2
10.06.23LP
U. Catolica3
Mushuc Runa2
09.07.22LP
U. Catolica2
Mushuc Runa1
19.02.22LP
Mushuc Runa1
U. Catolica2
23.10.21LP
U. Catolica0
Mushuc Runa1
Recent Form
U Catolica
01.06.26LP
Emelec1
U. Catolica0
L
29.05.26COE
EL Nacional1
U. Catolica4
W
23.05.26LP
Orense1
U. Catolica2
W
16.05.26LP
U. Catolica2
Delfin2
D
13.05.26SC
U. Catolica0
Ind. del Valle3
L
09.05.26LP
Aucas2
U. Catolica1
L
01.05.26LP
U. Catolica2
Ind. del Valle3
L
27.04.26LP
Manta1
U. Catolica0
L
24.04.26LP
U. Catolica4
Macara0
W
18.04.26LP
U. Catolica2
Libertad0
W
Mushuc Runa
03.06.26COE
Gualaceo1
Mushuc Runa0
L
31.05.26LP
Mushuc Runa0
Aucas0
D
23.05.26LP
Mushuc Runa2
Guayaquil City2
D
17.05.26LP
Leones del Norte3
Mushuc Runa1
L
12.05.26LP
Mushuc Runa1
LDU Quito3
L
03.05.26LP
Delfin1
Mushuc Runa0
L
25.04.26LP
Mushuc Runa4
Dep. Cuenca1
W
23.04.26LP
Barcelona SC2
Mushuc Runa1
L
18.04.26LP
Mushuc Runa1
Tecnico U.0
W
11.04.26LP
Mushuc Runa1
Manta0
W
U Catolica (Home)
16.05.26LP
U. Catolica2
Delfin2
D
13.05.26SC
U. Catolica0
Ind. del Valle3
L
01.05.26LP
U. Catolica2
Ind. del Valle3
L
24.04.26LP
U. Catolica4
Macara0
W
18.04.26LP
U. Catolica2
Libertad0
W
09.04.26LP
U. Catolica1
Emelec1
D
04.04.26LP
U. Catolica4
Guayaquil City1
W
17.03.26LP
U. Catolica1
Dep. Cuenca0
W
08.03.26LP
U. Catolica3
Leones del Norte0
W
Mushuc Runa (Away)
16.05.26LP
U. Catolica2
Delfin2
D
13.05.26SC
U. Catolica0
Ind. del Valle3
L
01.05.26LP
U. Catolica2
Ind. del Valle3
L
24.04.26LP
U. Catolica4
Macara0
W
18.04.26LP
U. Catolica2
Libertad0
W
09.04.26LP
U. Catolica1
Emelec1
D
04.04.26LP
U. Catolica4
Guayaquil City1
W
17.03.26LP
U. Catolica1
Dep. Cuenca0
W
08.03.26LP
U. Catolica3
Leones del Norte0
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Monday, 6th July 2026, U Catolica host Mushuc Runa at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito) in Ecuador Liga Pro. We recommend U Catolica to win or draw as the standout selection.

U Catolica arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Mushuc Runa are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 2D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour U Catolica, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Mushuc Runa's 2, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.

Our verdict: u catolica to win or draw at odds of 1.13 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Ecuador Liga Pro preview lives.

The home team strides in on 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 2 draws, 3 losses from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1X, priced at @1.13, which the numbers settle at around 80%. The whistle goes at 10:30 am.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for U Catolica vs Mushuc Runa?
Our selection is 1X — U Catolica to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.13. Tip confidence rating: 80%.
What is U Catolica's current form?
U Catolica have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Mushuc Runa been performing recently?
Mushuc Runa have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
U Catolica lead with 5 wins versus Mushuc Runa's 2, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
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