PENDING
Result: Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
DirectWinPredict USA USL League Two NEFC vs Vermont Green
N

NEFC

Home Side
W L W W W
9W 0D 1L
VS
10:00 pm
USA USL League Two
V
Vermont Green
Away Side
W W W D W
9W 1D 0L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals — Wednesday, 7th January 2026
Best Odds 1.44
Confidence 90%
Implied Prob 69.4%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.44
Over 2.5 Goals100% Over 1.5 Goals100% BTTS — Yes75%
Implied Prob
69.4%
Based on 1.44 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+20.6%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
67.3%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
0
NEFC
0
Draws
2
Vermont Green
2
Meetings
50%
BTTS Rate
100%
Over 2.5
5.5
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 2.5 in 100% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
NEFC
Metric
Vermont Green
2.5
Goals For / Game
4.8
1.5
Goals Against / Game
0.8
10%
Clean Sheet %
30%
9-0-1
W — D — L
9-1-0
Win Rate Comparison
90%
90%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
V0
V1
V2
V3
V4
V5
N0
0-0 0.8%
0-1 2.6%
0-2 4.1%
0-3 4.3%
0-4 3.4%
0-5 2.1%
N1
1-0 1.4%
1-1 4.3%
1-2 6.7%
1-3 7.1%
1-4 5.6%
1-5 3.5%
N2
2-0 1.1%
2-1 3.5%
2-2 5.6%
2-3 5.8%
2-4 4.6%
2-5 2.9%
N3
3-0 0.6%
3-1 1.9%
3-2 3.1%
3-3 3.2%
3-4 2.5%
3-5 1.6%
N4
4-0 0.3%
4-1 0.8%
4-2 1.3%
4-3 1.3%
4-4 1.0%
4-5 0.7%
N5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.3%
5-5 0.2%
Top Predicted Scores 1-3 (7.1%) 1-2 (6.7%) 2-3 (5.8%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · N=Home goals ↓   V=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
NEFC
Overall
9.0
Scoring
8.3
Defence
5.0
Vermont Green
Overall
9.3
Scoring
10.0
Defence
7.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 37%
Home Win & BTTS No 12%
Draw & BTTS Yes 2%
Draw & BTTS No 1%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 36%
Away Win & BTTS No 12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 49%
Home Win & Under 2.5 0%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 0%
Away Win & Over 2.5 48%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
14.06.26USL2
Vermont Green5
NEFC0
28.06.25USL2
Vermont Green5
NEFC1
Recent Form
NEFC
25.06.26USL2
Connecticut Rush1
NEFC2
W
14.06.26USL2
Vermont Green5
NEFC0
L
11.06.26USL2
NEFC2
Seacoast Utd Phantoms1
W
07.06.26USL2
NEFC2
Black Rock1
W
04.06.26USL2
NEFC2
Connecticut Rush1
W
28.05.26USL2
Boston Bolts1
NEFC2
W
24.05.26USL2
Western Mass Pioneers2
NEFC4
W
20.05.26USL2
Albany Rush0
NEFC4
W
17.05.26USL2
NEFC4
AC Connecticut1
W
14.05.26USL2
Seacoast Utd Phantoms2
NEFC3
W
Vermont Green
27.06.26USL2
Vermont Green3
Black Rock1
W
24.06.26USL2
Boston City1
Vermont Green4
W
21.06.26USL2
Vermont Green10
Boston City1
W
17.06.26USL2
Vermont Green2
Seacoast Utd Phantoms2
D
14.06.26USL2
Vermont Green5
NEFC0
W
11.06.26USL2
AC Connecticut1
Vermont Green4
W
02.06.26USL2
Vermont Green5
Boston Bolts0
W
27.05.26USL2
Black Rock1
Vermont Green2
W
23.05.26USL2
Vermont Green9
Albany Rush0
W
19.05.26USL2
Boston Bolts1
Vermont Green4
W
NEFC (Home)
11.06.26USL2
NEFC2
Seacoast Utd Phantoms1
W
07.06.26USL2
NEFC2
Black Rock1
W
04.06.26USL2
NEFC2
Connecticut Rush1
W
17.05.26USL2
NEFC4
AC Connecticut1
W
09.07.25USL2
NEFC0
Boston Bolts0
D
07.07.25USL2
NEFC1
Western Mass Pioneers3
L
21.06.25USL2
NEFC2
Seacoast Utd Phantoms1
W
14.06.25USL2
NEFC1
AC Connecticut3
L
12.06.25USL2
NEFC4
Boston City2
W
08.06.25USL2
NEFC2
Albany Rush0
W
Vermont Green (Away)
24.06.26USL2
Boston City1
Vermont Green4
W
11.06.26USL2
AC Connecticut1
Vermont Green4
W
27.05.26USL2
Black Rock1
Vermont Green2
W
19.05.26USL2
Boston Bolts1
Vermont Green4
W
16.05.26USL2
Seacoast Utd Phantoms0
Vermont Green2
W
12.07.25USL2
Western Mass Pioneers2
Vermont Green2
D
02.07.25USL2
Seacoast Utd Phantoms2
Vermont Green3
W
25.06.25USL2
AC Connecticut0
Vermont Green0
D
11.06.25USL2
Black Rock0
Vermont Green2
W
05.06.25USL2
Albany Rush1
Vermont Green4
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Wednesday, 7th January 2026, NEFC host Vermont Green at N/A in USA USL League Two. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

NEFC arrive in strong form, having recorded 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Vermont Green are travelling well, with a record of 9W 1D 0L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour NEFC, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Vermont Green's 2, with 0 draws from 2 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.44 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this USA USL League Two preview lives.

The home team strides in on 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at N/A, and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 4 wins, 1 draw from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is Over 2.5, priced at @1.44, which the numbers settle at around 80%. The whistle goes at 10:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for NEFC vs Vermont Green?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.44. Tip confidence rating: 90%.
What is NEFC's current form?
NEFC have won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Vermont Green been performing recently?
Vermont Green have recorded 9 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
NEFC lead with 0 wins versus Vermont Green's 2, with 0 draws across 2 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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